Middle East

Rumors are flying of a coming Mideast war with Israel conducting its largest-ever civil defense exercise and Syria amassing troops on its border with Lebanon.

Israel carried out a five-day nationwide civil defense drill this week called Turning Point 2, designed to simulate responses to war or a large-scale terrorist attack. Israel Defense Forces officers told debkafile sources, however, that the drill “exposed the home front as no readier for missile attack than it was when Hezbollah launched its rocket blitz in 2006; and, second, it infected the entire region with war fever” (April 8).

Last month, after Israel announced the defense exercise, the Syrians deployed three divisions to the Lebanese-Syrian border in the Bekaa Valley, where Hezbollah has its stronghold, seemingly in preparation for an Israeli clash with Hezbollah.

Stratfor sources report that Israel is planning to invade the Gaza Strip. This follows Hamas’s threat to once again breach Gaza’s border with Egypt and a terrorist attack on Wednesday in which two terrorists from the Gaza Strip opened fire at a fuel depot in southern Israel, killing two Israeli civilians. The Israeli daily Haaretz reported April 9 that Defense Minister Ehud Barak had convened an emergency meeting on Israel’s security.

Behind the scenes always is Iran, moving to consolidate its position in the region. Stratfor reports that Iranian proxy Hezbollah has been wooing Sunni religious scholars in Lebanon as part of Tehran’s efforts to bridge the divide between Shiites and Sunnis. Hezbollah reportedly is paying about 30 Sunni mullahs in Beirut a monthly salary to do its bidding, including making pro-Hezbollah statements, meeting with Hezbollah, and regularly attending Hezbollah-sponsored events. TheTrumpet.com has written about how the sectarian divide has been one of the major obstacles to Iran’s ascendancy. As we wrote in August 2006, “Iran has been trying to shift the debate from what divides Arabs to what unites them.” Hatred of the West is a big part of that. In addition to having some success in Lebanon, Iran of course is on great terms with the Sunni Palestinian terror groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and also has supported Sunni insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan (primarily to make life more difficult for the U.S.).

On April 7, Iraqi Shiite leader Maqtada al-Sadr, likely at the behest of Iran, said he would be prepared to disband his militia, the Mahdi Army. Al-Sadr, popular in the south of Iraq, is trying to strengthen his political position—but don’t expect him—or Iran—to give up the terror card. This method of turning to politics, without giving up the terror, has been successful for both Hezbollah and Hamas, and to an extent the Muslim Brotherhood.

It is likely no coincidence that on the same day al-Sadr made his statement, the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that it had received a request from the U.S. administration for a fourth round of talks on Iraqi security; Washington has neither confirmed nor denied the report. If al-Sadr were brought into the Shiite-dominated Iraqi government, it would help quell intra-Shiite division and thus strengthen Iran’s hand in Iraq.

Throughout the Middle East, the talk is of peace, while the preparation is for war. Watch this volatile area of the globe carefully: This is where an Earth-shattering series of events will soon commence that will lead to the Second Coming of Jesus Christ, to finally bring peace.

Europe

This week the pope reiterated that he believes Catholicism needs to play a more important role in Europe. In an address given in St. Peter’s Square about Benedict of Norcia, Pope Benedict said, “A strong political, economic and legal framework is undoubtedly important in creating a new, unified and lasting state, but we also need to renew ethical and spiritual values that draw on the Christian roots of the Continent, otherwise we cannot construct a new Europe.

“Without this vital lifeblood, man remains exposed to the ancient temptation of self-redemption—a utopia, which caused in various ways in 20th-century Europe, as pointed out by Pope John Paul ii, ‘an unprecedented regression in the tormented history of humanity.’”

So according to the pope, the reason Europe went through world wars was because it was not following the Catholic Church. For more information on how the Vatican intends to lead Europe, see our article “Wanted: Savior for Europe.”

Germany is also taking the lead in Europe. A recent survey of which country in the world has the most positive influence on global affairs found that 56 percent of world citizens are looking to Germany. The survey was performed by GlobeScan for the bbc World Service and polled 17,000 people in 34 countries. At the same time, Europeans are looking to Germany as the Continent’s leading nation, an International Herald Tribunepoll found. When asked which country is the leader of Europe, most Europeans say “Germany.” Most Americans thought it was Britain, but only a third of Britons themselves thought so. In fact, more than a third of Britons looked to Germany as Europe’s leading nation. Watch for Germany to increasingly take the lead in Europe and for Britain to be sidelined.

“Building a strong nato alliance also requires a strong European defense capacity,” American President George W. Bush said. “So at this summit I will encourage our European partners to increase their defense investments to support both nato and EU operations.” President Bush’s encouragement for European military expansion came in a speech just hours before nato’s recent summit in Bucharest. Although American defense planners and officials have traditionally feared a strong, independent EU military, apparently this view is changing substantially, and Washington is beginning to look at an expanded EU military as complementary, rather than threatening, to its own.

Asia

After forging a nuclear cooperation deal with Japanese nuclear giant Toshiba three weeks ago, Russia’s Rosatom Nuclear Energy State Corporation is now moving toward a deal that would give it access to Mongolia’s uranium deposits. Mongolian Prime Minister Sanjaa Bayar met with Rosatom’s general director in Moscow on Thursday to finalize the terms of a Russo-Mongolian nuclear agreement. This agreement would allow Rosatom access to Mongolia’s uranium reserves in return for Russian assistance with the mining and processing of that uranium. The agreement also raised the possibility of a Russian-built nuclear power plant in Mongolia in the near future. “As early as in Soviet times much work was done for the prospecting of uranium deposits, and now the time has come for using that information for mutual advantage,” Bayar said.

Mongolia’s uranium reserves are estimated to be anywhere between 60,000 and 150,000 metric tons. Mongolia’s uranium deposits, combined with the nuclear refinement capabilities of Russia and Japan, have the potential to transform the nations of Asia into the greatest nuclear power bloc the world has ever seen.

Also on Thursday, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd traveled to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart, Wen Jiabao. At this meeting, Rudd stated that Australia was willing to be a lasting and reliable partner to China in the spheres of energy, resources and manufacturing. He also reiterated that Australia has always adhered to the one-China policy and that China has a right to rule over the Tibet Autonomous Region. Rudd’s trip to China is further reinforcing his position that Australia should move further away from England and America and closer to China and the rest of East Asia. As their alliance loosens, watch for America, Britain and Australia to grow weaker.

Africa, Latin America

The election crisis in Zimbabwe continued as President Mugabe reappointed his cabinet, now technically composed of politicians who are not members of Zimbabwe’s parliament.

Leaders from 14 African countries attended the first summit between Africa and India in New Delhi on April 8-9. Like Europe and China, India wants to secure additional African resources. India’s prime minister, Manmohan Singh, promised more than $500 million in development and $5 billion in credit lines to Africa. Currently, India trades $30 billion per year with Africa. For more information on global efforts to secure African resources, read the March 2006 print edition of the Trumpet discussing the coming global resource war.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced on April 3 that he would nationalize the cement industry. Then, on April 9, he nationalized steel giant Ternium Sidor, which will displease Argentina, a majority stakeholder. The Argentine government has traditionally spoken favorably of President Chavez’s administration. Now, Argentina could be in the same situation as Mexico and France, both of which have threatened a legal response to President Chavez’s nationalization of their industries in Venezuela.

Anglo-America

On Capitol Hill Thursday, Democrat leaders questioned Gen. David Petreaus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who were in their third day of congressionally mandated testimony regarding the state of affairs in Iraq. Petreaus pointed to the Iraq troop surge as successful and said Iraqi Security Forces are holding their own against insurgent militias in Basra, but Democrats continued to make their case for withdrawal. This, in spite of Petraeus’s warning on Tuesday that such pullout plans would open the door wide for Iran and terrorist groups to grasp control of the country.

Beltway insiders are fawning over the imminent visit of Joseph Ratzinger, his first to the U.S. since becoming Pope Benedict xvi. Media outlets including the Washington Times are reporting the minutiae of the visit, including his chosen destinations, how many minutes he will be at each, how to get much-coveted tickets to certain events, at what time he will board the popemobile, who he will talk to—officially and unofficially—and so on. The gushing details of the “apostolic voyage” of the “Holy Father’s” visit, reminiscent of the media frenzy during Pope John Paul ii’s funeral, seem out of character for media and other elites who typically look down their noses at religious issues. The Vatican continues to mesmerize.

Freight truckers are staging protests as oil and fuel prices continue to rise. Last week, 1,250 truckers drove at 20 miles per hour on Interstate 75 near Atlanta. Around 200 more staged a similar demonstration near Newark. Protests and short-term strikes also hit Port of Tampa and Charleston, West Virginia, as haulers are finding diesel, which is near $4 a gallon, too expensive for any kind of profit margin. A nationwide strike is even rumored, but, as one trucker said, “[H]ow do you go on strike when you’ve got no work?”

Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is backing up China in the international row over the Beijing Olympics. European and other leaders have called for a boycott of the opening ceremonies and/or the Games themselves to protest China’s brutal crackdown against Tibet. Protesters along the Olympic torch’s relay route have denounced Beijing; in London and Paris they have displayed signs depicting the Olympic rings as handcuffs or bullet holes. Some protesters have attempted to extinguish the torch. Rudd responded Wednesday by delivering a speech in fluent Mandarin at Peking University, saying he rejected boycotting the Games.