Middle East

U.S. President George W. Bush is currently on an eight-day tour of the Middle East, visiting Israel, the West Bank, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Dubai, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, according to his official itinerary. Stratfor reports, “Given the length of time and the scope of his travels, the trip will have to involve the three issues of the region: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the future of Iraq and U.S. relations with Iran. What is not clear is precisely what Bush is trying to achieve with this trip” (January 9). Certainly, if his aim is to build his legacy by making decisive headway in the peace process—as his predecessor Bill Clinton tried to do before him—his efforts will be futile. On Wednesday, even as President Bush was in Israel, the south of the country came under a bombardment of rocket fire from the Gaza Strip. For its part, the Palestinian government made the preposterous claim Tuesday that Fatah’s terrorist wing, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, has been disbanded—a deceitful attempt by Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to get Bush to put further pressure on Israel to make concessions on core issues.

Israel is also facing increasing pressure from Egypt. The Jerusalem Post reported last week, “Egyptian irresponsibility is risking Israeli lives, harming Israeli security, and working directly counter to the international goal of isolating Hamas ….” Egypt allowed 2,000 Palestinian pilgrims back into the Gaza Strip through the Hamas-controlled Rafah border crossing in violation of its commitment just a few days earlier not to do so (so they could be checked at a crossing controlled by Israelis). The group included more than 20 senior Hamas members carrying money, weapons and terrorist-training material, according to Israeli officials.

U.S. failure to make progress overseeing the peace process may well be welcomed by the European Union. Responding to Palestinian calls for the EU to be more active in supporting the creation of a Palestinian state, the foreign minister of Slovenia (which took over the EU’s rotating presidency at the beginning of this year) promised on Wednesday that the EU would resume a key role in the negotiations if U.S.-sponsored talks failed.

During and following on from President Bush’s Mideast trip, watch for any U.S. overtures toward Iran as the U.S. president attempts to solve the Iraq problem before his term ends. The rhetoric at the moment, of course, is not friendly, following the incident in the Persian Gulf on Sunday when three U.S. ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz were harassed by five vessels believed to be from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. Still, Washington’s response to that act of aggression was muted, fitting a pattern of appeasement and compromise.

Despite some nations in the region getting nervous about Iran’s increasing power, Tehran is succeeding in cementing ties with others. Iran and Pakistan are increasing cooperation in the energy sector, with the Iranian ambassador and the Pakistani minister for petroleum and natural resources discussing the promotion of bilateral cooperation in the oil and gas sectors. Iran and Pakistan will sign a gas sales and purchase agreement next week for a pipeline project linking the two countries. Increasing overtures from the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism toward the politically unstable, nuclear-armed, Islamist-leaning Pakistan are something well worth monitoring.

Libya is another nation Iran is getting friendly with. Tripoli’s warming to Washington has made big news, but its growing ties with Tehran go almost unreported. The Libyan foreign minister received a warm reception in Washington last week, but only a week earlier, the Iranian vice president visited Libya, the first such high-level trip in 25 years. The two countries signed 10 memoranda of understandings on mutual cooperation. Even while Libya makes promises of friendship to the U.S., its prime minister said, “We discussed [with Iran] the issues related to Iraq, Palestine and other issues, and our views are identical on all those issues.” The Trumpet has long written that Libya would ally with Iran. We can now see such a relationship developing.

And finally, the political crisis in Lebanon continues. Hezbollah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said last week that no election for the president would take place unless Hezbollah received veto power in the future government. Nasrallah’s avowal came just days after the government postponed for the 11th time a parliamentary presidential election. In this political stalemate, the Lebanese government is simply being held to ransom by a terrorist organization.

Europe

Pipeline politics reasserted themselves as a dominant issue this week. Europe was forced to question its energy security yet again as a price dispute in Central Asia spilled over into the European Union. Turkmenistan cut gas supplies to Iran during one of Iran’s most severe winters. Iran then cut its supplies to Turkey, and Turkey cut supplies to Greece. Europe gets its gas from these regions to decrease its dependency on Russia. The upshot of this gas price domino affair is that Europe is forced to question how reliable these new sources are, and whether extra intervention will be needed to guarantee a steady supply.

Europe and Russia edged closer together this week. Slovenia’s presidency of the EU opens up more opportunities for the EU and Russia to get along. “We have a good feeling about this presidency. Slovenia is a close partner,” Sergei Yastrzhembsky, who is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special representative on European matters, said. “There is not one cloud on the horizon of Russian-Slovenian relations.” Yastrzhembsky also said that if the EU could get past the Polish veto, the “long-awaited negotiations” on a new Russia-EU partnership agreement could begin under the Slovenian presidency.

Russian-Polish relations are also rapidly improving. Early in the week, the Polish President Donald Tusk announced plans to visit Russia next month. On Thursday, a Russian Foreign Ministry delegation met with Polish officials. “These were very interesting talks held in a favorable atmosphere,” said Polish Deputy Defense Minister Stanislaw Komorowski. A long-standing dispute between the two nations over meat imports ended last month. The stage is set for the “long-awaited negotiations.”

Asia

In the latest example of Asian military cooperation, Russia, India and Malaysia are working together on air force defense drills. On Monday, the Russian online daily Kommersant reported that Indian trainers are teaching Malaysian pilots to fly Russian jets. This training is part of an Indian-Malaysian defense agreement signed by the defense ministers of the two countries. Two weeks ago, India reached out to China, conducting its first-ever military exercises with that country. Now India and Malaysia are forming a regional defense agreement. For years, Asia has been integrating into a gargantuan economic bloc. Now the nations of Asia are taking steps to cooperate militarily.

In other news, it was announced Wednesday that Filipino President Gloria Arroyo is to ask congress to change the Filipino Constitution in an attempt to pacify Islamic separatists. By editing the Constitution to enact a shift from a centralized form of government to a more localized form of government, Arroyo would be able to grant Islamic separatists in the Mindanao province a semi-autonomous state. If the change is enacted, Mindanao could become an Islamic pseudo-state within the Philippines. Islamic separatists have been conducting guerilla warfare and terrorism in the Philippines for years. Now Filipino leadership is giving in. Islamic separatist movements like this are developing worldwide. Watch for the Islamists to become emboldened by their successes in places like the Philippines and continue to become more aggressive, until they are stopped by a greater power.

Africa, Latin America

On Wednesday, EU Development Commissioner Louis Michel said the European Union would form a partnership with China regarding Africa. European concerns about growing Chinese influence in Africa will be alleviated if China’s investment benefits Europe. Michel said that he has “the impression that this idyllic relation between Africa and China is inevitably going to end.” It appears Europe intends to be there to break the fall—and to gather up any resources that may be left lying around.

Former Liberian President Charles Taylor once again found himself in a war crimes trial on January 7. Taylor, who brokered an exile deal in July 2003, will likely spend a long time in prison. However, as Stratfor observed, his trial also sends a strong message to other African leaders “that their only true security guarantee is to remain in absolute power.” Other despotic leaders, like Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, will never accept a deal now that the international community has shown it can’t be trusted to keep an exiled leader out of prison.

Anglo-America

More than a dozen prominent U.S. leaders convened at the University of Oklahoma Monday to address some of the nation’s most dangerous issues, likening America’s current state of affairs to the lead-up to World War ii “in slow motion.” At the meeting, well attended by news media, 17 prominent politicians, including New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, compared the current crisis to events surrounding the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and the Second World War. The solution to impending disaster, the forum concluded, was bipartisanship. Not only will that never happen, even if it did it wouldn’t be enough.

Meanwhile in Washington, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice welcomed Libyan Foreign Minister Abdel-Rahman Shalqam last week with a grand reception—only a week after Libya received the Iranian Vice President Parvis Davoudi, the first such high-level visit in 25 years.

As the U.S. economy wobbles, it is costing more to eat healthy. The price of fruit and vegetables is rising faster than inflation, and according to a new study of 372 foods and beverages monitored over an extended period, junk food is actually getting cheaper.

Meanwhile, in the importing/exporting market, grain inventories are hitting record lows and export sales of U.S. wheat are “beginning to look like panic buying” according to some analysts.

In the United Kingdom, the bishop of Rochester, Michael Nazir-Ali, has said that Britain is besieged by a national identity crisis, has lost confidence in its Christian roots, and has embraced “the novel philosophy of multiculturalism.” The resulting dramatic spread of Islamic extremism across the nation includes some areas becoming “no go” areas for non-Muslims. The bishop of Blackburn, Nicholas Reade, stated that “the writing is on the wall” for the decline of the Church of England.