In 1789, Napoleon Bonaparte was an energetic, ambitious, albeit unknown, second lieutenant in the French Army. Twenty years and multiple wars later, Bonaparte was the face of French power, the emperor of the Holy Roman Empire and the most formidable man on Earth.

That’s a remarkable transformation—for Bonaparte, but also for France. How was it, that in less than 20 years, France went from being brutally divided to the most dominant power in Europe? Obviously Bonaparte’s personality and leadership were central to this transformation. But what was it about the political and social climate of France that facilitated his ascension?

It’s often been said Napoleon was the child of the French Revolution, which began in 1789. “Revolutionary France of the 1790s provided the perfect background for an ambitious, politically conscious, and energetic soldier such as Bonaparte to make his way to the top,” wrote British historian Paul Johnson.

The lesson is: The chaos and instability of the French Revolution provided the ideal climate for Napoleon’s character and leadership to manifest itself. This is a principle proved by history. Political and social tumult create the ideal climate for opportunistic leaders.

With this principle in mind, let’s turn our attention to the instability plaguing Europe.

France

France has been at a virtual standstill since Wednesday due to the most severe strikes in a decade. The strikes are being led by some of the country’s largest unions in response to new labor reforms being proposed by French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

The first in what unions say will be a series of strikes began on Wednesday, when railway, bus and metro stopped working and brought virtually the entire nation to a standstill. Next Tuesday, teachers, town-hall staff, post-office workers and other civil servants will follow suit; one week later the country’s magistrates will also go on strike.

These strikes are testing the mettle of President Sarkozy, who recently returned to France after two weeks of traversing the globe hobnobbing with fellow world leaders.

“France’s transport and electricity unions are among the country’s most powerful, as they can not only shut down their respective industries, but also remove France from the world’s economic map altogether,” reported Stratfor (November 14; emphasis mine throughout).

“The outcome of the strikes will make or break the government—and Sarkozy himself,” Stratfor stated.

Mr. Sarkozy could easily quiet the fuss by capitulating to the requests of the unions, but this seems unlikely. The president built his political platform on economic reform and has an electoral mandate to confront this issue. The stakes could hardly be higher for Sarkozy and his government. If he capitulates to the unions, his credibility will be severely, even fatally, wounded, and if he doesn’t, the strikes could continue and the current social unrest will prevail.

Once again, it appears France is in for another winter of discontent.

Belgium

Belgium has spent the past 160 days without a government. Even after five months of intense discussions between the French-speaking (Francophone) and Dutch-speaking (Flemish) political parties, there is still no light at the end of the tunnel for Brussels.

“And while this is plainly not yet in itself a catastrophe,” the Guardian reported, “there is a very real fear that the fragile and complicated arrangement of string and sticky tape that holds this impossible country together may finally be beginning to come unstuck. Belgium, it is whispered (and none too quietly), could soon be no more.”

Belgium has been a sovereign state for 177 years. Now it totters on the brink of dissolution.

“The linguistic animosity is such that newspapers are openly contemplating a future without a Belgian national soccer team, publishing hypothetical lineups for two new teams to compete internationally and replace Belgium’s Red Devils with the Lions of Flanders and Roosters of Wallonia,” reported the International Herald Tribune.

Kosovo

Ever since the breakup of Yugoslavia during the 1990s, long-running disputes have existed between the Serbs and the Kosovo Albanians, who seek Kosovo’s independence from Serbia.

Since 1999, Kosovo has been governed by the United Nations Interim Administration Mission, and since 2006 international negotiations have been ongoing to determine the final status of Kosovo. The international trio comprised of the EU, America and Russia is supposed to present the UN with a final plan for Kosovo by December 10.

But this week, it became more evident that this would be impossible. “As diplomatic efforts on the fate of Kosovo look set to reach a dead end, the European Union’s mediator has suggested a status-neutral solution for Serbia’s breakaway province—an idea quickly rejected by Belgrade and Pristina,” reported the EU Observer.

Ever since negotiations began, this small and seemingly insignificant province has emerged as a key geopolitical battlefield between Russia, who supports the Serbs’ demands that Kosovo remain under their sovereignty, and the EU and America, who support Kosovo’s independence.

On Friday, nato beefed up the number of its troops in Kosovo in preparation for Saturday’s parliamentary elections, where it is anticipated Kosovo Albanians will come out en masse to elect a government that will make Kosovo’s independence a reality. nato is worried that conflict could break out between pro-Serb and pro-independence voters. Small outbreaks of violence have already erupted in Kosovo and Serbia, as well as other Balkan states.

“There’s a certain degree of worry about these elections,'’ said Rosa Balfour, an analyst at the European Policy Center, a Brussels research group. Tensions over Kosovo’s status, she said, would have a “spillover effect on the region.'’

With the December 10 deadline looming, it’s important to watch the Balkans. Tensions are high, and although “the West is not paying much attention to the Balkans other than as a bargaining chip with other global players such as Russia … the actors in the Balkans are ready to move” (Stratfor, November 16).

This tumultuous climate is intensifying the need for strong leadership and a strong government in Kosovo. The question is, who will emerge as the ultimate winner in the Kosovo crisis—the EU or Russia? You can learn the answer to this question by reading The Rising Beast—Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans.

Germany

Germany is experiencing its share of volatility.

“A bitter, three-day strike by train drivers in Germany has tied up freight traffic, shut down an auto factory, and stranded hundreds of thousands of passengers in what has become the largest work stoppage in the history of the German state railroad system,” reported the International Herald Tribune.

By Friday, 5,300 train drivers had quit driving. Across the country, fewer than half the commuter trains were running, and some 40 percent of the freight services had been affected. According to national rail operator Deutsche Bahn, the strike is costing it €50 million per day.

In addition to this week’s rail strike came the news on Tuesday that Vice Chancellor and Labor Minister Franz Müntefering was resigning from the coalition government. The announcement was a severe blow to Chancellor Angela Merkel and the fragile coalition government. “One thing is for sure,” reported Spiegel Online, “Müntefering’s departure does not bode well for the future of Germany’s grand coalition. Müntefering and Merkel enjoyed a close and trusting relationship, and the former spd leader is widely seen as being the man who made the grand coalition possible—he helped negotiate the coalition contract in 2005—and held it together” (November 14).

Müntefering will be replaced by Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, whose relationship with Merkel is far from rosy. Steinmeier has been a staunch critic of Merkel, especially her approach to foreign policy.

“With Müntefering gone, there is likely to be more conflict between the coalition partners, as both parties focus on staking out their positions and identifying election issues ahead of the 2009 election. This could mean a two-year political stalemate in Europe’s largest economy—or even early elections, if the coalition falls apart“ (ibid.).

Watch German politics. If a crisis sets in and snap elections are needed, new leadership could emerge in the heart of Europe.

The Broader European Landscape

Tumult also plagues the European Union. The controversy among member states surrounding the Lisbon Treaty, to be signed next month, has been widely discussed in recent months. But even with the treaty agreed upon by all member states, including Britain, debate about the treaty remains hot in London, where Conservative politicians said this week that the issue would go to referendum, even it happened after ratification!

France’s Sarkozy talked about the spirit of tumult hanging over the EU this week, explaining to fellow leaders at a European Parliament meeting in Strasbourg that Europeans were suffering an “extremely deep identity crisis.” Europe, he said, needed to be seen by Europeans “as a protector, a life-enhancer, as a magnifier of strength, and as a shining cultural and political example.”

Ideal Climate

Some would argue that the political and social tumult plaguing Europe is evidence of its unlikely future as a united and imperious geopolitical force. But history shows exactly the opposite is true.

The strikes and social unrest in France and Germany, the fragility of the German government, the tension and tumult in Kosovo and Belgium, the controversy over the EU treaty, the European identity crisis, as well as the growing presence of radical Islam and the powerful rightward shift occurring in Europe, are all intensifying the need for a strong leader on the Continent.

Even now, national leadership is emerging in Europe. In 2005, think tank Stratfor wrote about the re-emergence of Germany as a dominant power in Europe, and used the history of the Continent to show the significance of this trend. Here’s how Stratfor concluded that analysis:

What is inevitable is change. The least likely result of a major power emerging at the heart of a continent is business as usual. And if history is any guide, Germany’s re-emergence during the next few years will slam into Europe with all the subtlety of, well, the German army.

Europeans aren’t lopping off heads, rioting in the streets or storming Bastilles—but a distinct spirit of unrest pervades the Continent. Monitor this trend carefully, because in much the same way France was primed for the robust, revolutionary leadership of Napoleon Bonaparte, the entire continent of Europe is right now being primed for the emergence of a similarly opportunistic leadership.