Last Thursday, Gulf of Mexico energy companies breathed a sigh of relief when a relatively benign Tropical Storm Erin made landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas, but their respite might be short-lived.

Hurricane Dean, pounding Jamaica Sunday, is projected to reach the most dangerous classification, a Category 5 storm. Although the hurricane’s current course means it may miss the largest oil production regions of the Gulf, U.S. companies are cautious of a change in the hurricane’s forecasted path.

Whatever the course of Dean, it appears there will be plenty more hurricanes to come this year. Scientists are predicting a storm season that is more active than normal, with up to 16 named storms as opposed to the average 10 or 11.

“Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” the U.S. National Hurricane Center said last week. A similar warning was issued prior to the devastating 2005 hurricane season when category 3 to 5 hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma crippled the region.

The 2005 storm season was devastating to America, and not just New Orleans. Gulf of Mexico oil and gas infrastructure was also severely crippled, perhaps irreversibly in some cases.

Two years after Katrina and Rita, oil production in the Gulf has still not recovered. Although some of the lost production is due to the natural decline rates associated with an aging field, the current 12.5 percent decline from the 2005 peak primarily stems from the hurricanes’ damage to energy production infrastructure.

“The hurricanes so changed the underwater topography that pipe repairs are still ongoing,” Stratfor reported. “There is the distinct possibility that a full recovery is not going to happen” (August 16).

Another storm season like 2005 could be catastrophic for the United States.

The Gulf of Mexico is America’s last major energy production region. No known resources exist within American territory to replace it. The most generous estimates for the Alaskan wildlife refuges put production capacity at less than one third that of the Gulf.

If another offshore super-field were to be found (the last super-fields were found nearly 40 years ago), massive amounts of infrastructure and possibly more than a decade of development would be required to fully exploit it.

“The bottom line is that the last major U.S. producing region has run up against an unbeatable combination of technical limitations and unavoidable disruptions (namely, hurricanes). Which means the only U.S. option for new oil and natural gas supplies is now to go overseas” (ibid.).

The severity of the 2007 hurricane season remains to be seen. But even barring major storm events in the Gulf, the U.S. is facing an energy crisis. Domestic energy production is declining, and global energy demand is growing. Competition for resources is heating up. Read “Stoking the Engines of Empires” for more on natural resources and “Flash Floods, Scorched Earth” for analysis on why environmental disasters have increased in intensity.