A new report from the National Petroleum Council, one of the most comprehensive ever conducted, “provides a sobering picture of the energy problem facing the United States and the world,” the International Herald Tribune reports.

In October 2005, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman sent a letter to Lee Raymond, head of the National Petroleum Council and former chairman of Exxon Mobil, asking, “What does the future hold for oil and natural gas supply?” After almost two years, the 476-page response is in, compiling results from hundreds of participants and 19 foreign governments. It represents a broad spectrum of input from “think tanks, academic institutions, banks, governmental agencies and a handful of non-governmental groups, including the Alliance to Save Energy and Resources for the Future.”

The prognosis is not good. Global energy consumption will rise 50 percent in the next 25 years. According to the International Herald Tribune,

[F]inding supplies to match that growth is going to be increasingly tough, and will require massive new investments in coming decades. The council’s report warns of ‘accumulating risks’ to energy production, including rising geopolitical barriers, inflation in costs, dwindling petroleum engineers and growing constraints on carbon dioxide emissions.

Acknowledging the effect of the war on carbon emissions, the report states, “It is a hard truth that policies aimed at curbing carbon emissions will alter the energy mix, increase energy-related costs and require reductions in demand growth.”

The report, which is backed by the oil industry, even said that the U.S. needs to take steps to reduce oil consumption.

Perhaps most alarming, though, is that these are the optimists. Detractors from the npc take an even dimmer view of the situation. Congressmen Roscoe Bartlett and Tom Udall were disappointed with the report: “Instead of ‘facing the hard truths about energy,’” Congressman Bartlett said, “the npc report hides them.” Congressman Udall said Americans are not getting “straight talk and honest answers” from the report.

The two leaders expressed concern that the U.S. will not have the ability to deliver enough oil and natural gas and that the report does not account for dwindling world support for the U.S. in coming years.

But the oil crisis may have already begun. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce predicted Wednesday that oil prices will reach $80 a barrel by the end of the year and likely climb to an unprecedented $100 a barrel next year.

In simplest terms, according to the oil industry, we have a big problem that needs solving. According to its opponents, we have a massive, almost unsolvable problem. For everyone else, gas prices are going up. Count on it.

For more on this subject, read “Strategic Implications of the Coming Oil Shortage.”