With Hezbollah deeply entrenched, Islamist terrorists causing the worst violence since the civil war, and political assassinations continuing, Lebanon is on the brink of collapse. Will Iran’s success in Gaza give it the impetus to fulfill its goals in Lebanon?

Since anti-Syrian reformers gained control of the Lebanese government in the spring of 2005, Syria and Iran have been working to undermine the authority of that government and cement their influence in Lebanon. Now, with Gaza firmly under the control of Iranian-backed Hamas, analysts are pointing to Lebanon as possibly being Iran’s next conquest. Peter Brookes, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, writes:

Beware: The Gaza Strip may be only the first domino to fall this summer in Iran and Syria’s push to establish an arc of influence across the Middle East, stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean. Lebanon, already teetering on the brink of instability, could easily be next.

Brookes asserts that Lebanon is already under siege by Iran and Syria, with help from al Qaeda. “Lebanon is clearly nearing a tipping point,” he writes.

The assassination of yet another anti-Syrian Lebanese parliamentarian, Walid Eido, in mid-June—the third since the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, and one of at least seven Lebanese anti-Syrian officials who have been killed in that time period—puts renewed pressure on the deadlocked Lebanese government. Anti-Syrian lawmakers currently have a razor-thin majority in the Lebanese parliament; the killing or resignation of just four more anti-Syrian parliamentarians would erase that majority. With an election scheduled for November for the parliament to select a new president, it is entirely possible Syrian and Iranian elements will continue their strategy of targeted killings.

The massive car bombing in Beirut that killed Eido was just one of six in and around Beirut within a one-month period. Think tank Stratfor reports that Syria has plans to accelerate the wave of bombings in Beirut in the coming months for the purpose of political intimidation.

Meanwhile, Stratfor also reports that a group of Lebanese opposition party members say they are considering forming a second government in Lebanon, with Hezbollah demanding the current government’s resignation (June 27).

At the same time, the Lebanese Army has been involved in the worst internal violence Lebanon has experienced since its civil war ended in 1990. At least 194 people have been killed in the fighting that erupted between an al Qaeda-aligned terrorist group and the Lebanese military on May 20 in a refugee camp near Tripoli, Lebanon’s second-largest city. Though fighting has quietened down somewhat, the militants are still entrenched in the camp. Meanwhile, according to Brookes, the terrorist group has threatened to spread the conflict to other refugee camps across Lebanon, “potentially lighting off a larger powder keg of violence.” Earlier in June, some fighting did in fact take place at a different refugee camp, involving a separate al Qaeda-related group.

Of course, Hezbollah has been re-armed by Iran and Syria also, and is well positioned to confront either Israel or the Beirut government upon its patrons‘ say-so. Iranian-born journalist Amir Taheri reports that in anticipation of winning control of Lebanon, Iran has actually increased its shipments of money and arms to Hezbollah and its allies.

Just as the takeover of Gaza by an Iranian ally will yet have far-reaching consequences, so too would the fall of Lebanon to anti-Western, Iranian-allied forces. As Brookes states:

The fall of Gaza to the most radical elements of Hamas has already emboldened Islamist and jihadist forces across the Middle East. Lebanon’s fall would only add fuel to the fire—meaning a tougher road ahead in Iraq, Afghanistan and the war on terror.

We do not know if the Lebanese government will fall, but it is certainly an area to watch closely as Iran—which is prophesied to fulfill some critical end-time biblical prophecies—continues to gain momentum in the Middle East.