China Rehearses Keeping America Out of a Taiwan War

Getty Images, Kassandra Verbout/Trumpet

China Rehearses Keeping America Out of a Taiwan War

Chinese forces are conducting “area denial” exercises near Taiwan ‌involving an aircraft carrier and numerous other warships, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry reported November 10.

Taiwan, a democratic nation, has never been controlled by the Chinese Communist Party, but the Communist regime treats it like a breakaway province that it will conquer sooner or later.

  • Chinese warships and warplanes regularly enter the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan to intimidate and pressure the island nation. In recent weeks, the number has surged considerably beyond usual levels, with more than 100 Chinese vessels at sea and dozens of aircraft operating near its airspace.

The U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” deliberately leaves unclear whether its forces will intervene militarily if China attacks Taiwan. The uncertainty is meant to deter Beijing from launching an invasion by making it impossible to count on U.S. nonintervention. Yet the strong implication of U.S. policy is that America would come to Taiwan’s defense.

  • Chinese military planners understand that an American intervention would dramatically complicate an invasion and reduce China’s chances of victory. They are, therefore, preparing to keep the U.S. from entering the conflict in the first place.

Roger Cliff, a former rand Corp. senior political scientist specializing in China’s military, explained at a 2015 Atlantic Council-hosted panel discussion in Washington, D.C.:

If China can prevent or delay the deployment of U.S. forces to Taiwan’s defense, then it’s possible that China could actually bring about the defeat of Taiwan before the U.S. could muster enough force to thwart China’s efforts.

China has devoted vast resources to developing military capabilities designed to make American intervention costly, dangerous and perhaps even unfeasible. Its assets include long-range ballistic and cruise missiles capable of striking aircraft carriers and military bases across the Western Pacific, along with submarines and advanced aircraft that can threaten American forces approaching the island.

China is also working to weaken America’s willingness to intervene. Chinese state-linked influence operations have targeted American audiences online by impersonating U.S. citizens, including anti-war activists, and amplifying divisive political messages. In a conflict over Taiwan, such campaigns could fuel isolationist sentiment and strengthen calls for the United States to stay out of the war.

China is also developing an extensive arsenal of counterspace weapons designed to disrupt, disable or destroy the satellites the U.S. military depends so heavily on. These include ground-based antisatellite missiles, lasers and electronic jamming systems, as well as maneuverable satellites. Together, these capabilities could disrupt American communication, navigation and targeting systems long before they reach Taiwan.

As China intensifies its efforts to prevent U.S. intervention, Taiwan’s independence looks increasingly precarious. Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has long warned that China will eventually conquer the island nation.

  • In 1998, after Bill Clinton became the first American president to yield to Chinese pressure and issue a statement critical of Taiwanese independence, Mr. Flurry said this meant Taiwan’s freedom would not last. He wrote:

    The Chinese leaders pressured the president and America to speak against our freedom-loving friends before the whole world. … The people of Taiwan fear for their future. They feel betrayed. …

    Once again, America has showcased its broken will to the whole world. …

    How could anyone fail to see that Taiwan is destined to become a part of mainland China? These [23 million] people are going to be forced into the Chinese mold; and it is going to happen for one reason: because of a pitifully weak-willed America.

    Does freedom really mean so little to us?

Mr. Flurry’s understanding of America’s faltering will and its role in the China-Taiwan dynamic is based on biblical prophecy. Leviticus 26 records God warning the descendants of Israel—mainly modern America and Britain—that if they refuse to obey Him, then He will “break the pride of [their] power” (verse 19).

To understand how America’s broken will is going to enable China to conquer Taiwan, read Russia and China in Prophecy.