Is Iran the War’s Big Winner?
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, called America’s memorandum of understanding “America’s declaration of defeat” Wednesday. Even if this is overstated, Iran is treating the war’s conclusion as a time for new opportunities.
In foreign policy, successfully withstanding the world’s superpower seems to be giving Iran new clout:
- Pakistan has gone from almost going to war with Iran to becoming the main mediator protecting Iran’s interests.
- Despite Qatar’s overtures of nonaggression, Iran attacked the Gulf state, prompting a counterattack. Yet like Pakistan, Qatar has turned into a mediator that circumstantial evidence suggests is using its leverage to soften the U.S.’s position on Iran.
- Ghalibaf is soon due to visit China, which can now receive Iranian oil exports again per the memorandum’s provisions.
Regarding its nuclear program, Iran also seems to have achieved a victory. Despite the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency claiming otherwise, Iran has said there are no plans to allow international nuclear inspectors into the country.
- The nuclear issue is President Donald Trump’s main sticking point. He threatened earlier this week to resume bombing if Iran doesn’t open up to international inspectors. But he has so far refused to carry out his threat, as he has most of his threats since peace talks began.
Trump’s constantly shifting positions are arguably Iran’s biggest public relations win. President Trump entered the war with maximalist demands, including regime change. He has now settled for letting Iran determine the negotiating terms, constantly updating his position depending on what the Iranians do.
Iran is battered. But like a phoenix rising from the ashes, its current leadership is sensing opportunity. It’s hard to argue with Ghalibaf: America has lost the Iran war.