Officially, Israel and Hamas have been in a ceasefire since October. This ceasefire exists in name only. In the last couple of months, Israel has increased its control of Gaza’s territory by about 20 percent. And it is aiming for more.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on May 28 that Israel is “now in 60 percent of the territory of the Gaza Strip. We were at 50 percent. We moved to 60 percent. My directive is to move to—take it step by step—first of all, 70. Let’s start with that.”

Hamas has violated the United States-brokered ceasefire numerous times with isolated attacks on the Israel Defense Forces, but this would be Israel’s boldest move against the ceasefire’s parameters. It would also be the biggest change in Gaza’s status quo since October.

Iran sponsors Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured Israel to disengage from Lebanon so it doesn’t sabotage the peace process with Iran. He arguably has more to lose if the Gaza peace process falls apart.

The Gaza crisis led to the creation of his much-touted Board of Peace. Reconstructing Gaza is, so far, the board’s only major project. President Trump said in his Second Inaugural Address that his proudest legacy would be that of a peacemaker. If the Board of Peace flounders, that legacy may be irrecoverable. Yet it appears President Trump has not put similar pressure on Israel to stop fighting Hamas.

Why?

The Pitfalls

Negotiations seek to have Hamas lay down both its territory and its weapons. So far, Hamas has agreed to neither. To avoid surrendering completely, Hamas has sought negotiations to rebrand its terrorist army as “police,” to get an exemption for “minor weapons,” and other maneuvers.

The Board of Peace can’t achieve much in its current state. It has no money. “While the board says that $17 billion has been pledged by its members towards Gaza reconstruction—out of an estimated $70 billion required,” the Washington Post reported June 1, “little of it has been collected, and virtually none has been spent.” A Financial Times headline was even more blunt: “Donald Trump’s Board of Peace Fund Is Empty.” One source speaking with the Times claimed that “zero dollars have been deposited.”

The U.S. must be getting frustrated with these circumstances. But what can it do about it? A peacekeeping mission to the Middle East in the current domestic political climate would be nearly impossible. The likeliest way to ensure Hamas’s disarmament is to give Israel free rein. At the least, it puts additional pressure on Hamas to agree to President Trump’s terms.

The Sponsor

Israel’s new offensive in Gaza is making minimal headlines. The news cycle is largely preoccupied with the war against Iran and its satellite conflicts. This works in Israel’s favor, allowing it to avoid the bad publicity the international community bombarded it with during the Gaza war’s active fighting. At the same time, Hamas isn’t getting as much help from supporters.

Most concerning from Hamas’s perspective, Gaza’s affairs are being left almost entirely out of the U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. Iran is doing all it can to help Hezbollah by including Lebanon in the negotiations. But Gaza has barely been mentioned. Hezbollah is and has been Iran’s most important proxy; Iran can’t afford to give it up without a fight. Iran can’t focus on Hamas at the moment. It appears Iran has accepted it can no longer keep Gaza and is cutting its losses.

A June 2 Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs analysis suggests this worries Hamas’s leadership. “Hamas officials” speaking with Gazan media, the analysis reports, “reportedly describe Gaza’s exclusion from the equation as troubling. They believe this could let Israel use its full military power in the strip without fear of triggering broader escalation.”

The report continues:

Senior security officials say Hamas’s main concern is that a U.S.-Iran agreement would relieve Israel of many strategic pressures. When the possibility of broader confrontation with Iran, Lebanon, Iraq or Yemen remained, Israel had to divide its military and strategic focus.

However, if tensions with Iran subside, Israel could devote substantially greater resources to the campaign in Gaza.

Hamas seems afraid its Iranian patrons will leave it for dead.

The Future

President Trump seems to be accepting Israel’s moves for now, but what happens when the news cycle shifts its focus back to Gaza? Will he pressure Israel to stand down? Israel is heading into elections later this year. Prime Minister Netanyahu faces a reelection battle. Appearing to bow to every pressure of the U.S. president at the expense of national security is not the way to convince voters he should get another term. This push to take over Gaza could end up splitting the U.S. and Israel apart.

The Trumpet expects major changes in Gaza soon. Two specific Bible prophecies bear special relevance to what is happening in Gaza.

The first is in Psalm 83, which speaks of a Middle Eastern coalition assembled “that the name of Israel may be no more in remembrance” (verse 4). The coalition is comprised of “[t]he tabernacles of Edom, and the Ishmaelites; of Moab, and the Hagarenes; Gebal, and Ammon, and Amalek; the Philistines with the inhabitants of Tyre; Assur also is joined with them …” (verses 6-8). Neither the Bible nor secular history records such an alliance forming, neither in purpose nor composition. Because of this, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry says this is a prophecy for our day. Comparing the list of peoples with their modern descendants, this prophecy shows an alliance between the Arab world and Germany, “Assur.” (Our relevant Trends article explains in detail.)

As our Trends article elaborates, this alliance forms with Israel’s blessing. The Philistines listed are the modern Palestinian Arabs.

“Anciently,” Mr. Flurry writes in The King of the South, “Gaza was one of the leading Philistine city-states. Based on the Philistines’ inclusion in Psalm 83, I have predicted that we will see the Gaza Strip shift allegiance from Iran to Germany.” Mr. Flurry wrote in an earlier edition of that booklet, published before the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre: “The Philistines—the Palestinians of Gaza and even those in the West Bank—will shift their alliance to Germany as well. … There may soon be some significant power shifts in Gaza.”

“Right now,” the current text reads, “Gaza’s immediate future is unclear. But whoever reconstructs the rubble that is the Gaza Strip, it is clear that the main obstacle to Gaza aligning with Germany—Hamas’s undisputed stranglehold on the territory—is now history. Gaza is no longer a part of Iran’s proxy empire. You can be sure that, whatever unexpected developments affect Gaza, Germany, one way or another, will become Gaza’s new master.”

The second prophecy is in Hosea 5:13. It speaks of Judah, the end-time Jewish state, having a deadly national “wound.” Mr. Flurry explains in Jerusalem in Prophecy that this wound refers to the Palestinian peace process. This incurable wound is driving Israel to “the Assyrian,” another reference to Germany.

Hamas ruled Gaza as a puppet of Iran, which The King of the South explains conflicts with Gaza turning to Germany. Although we expect a change of government, we don’t expect America to help Israel hold Gaza for long. Prophecy suggests that Israel turns to Germany because America is no longer in the picture.

Israel’s current maneuvers could play into both trends. Time will tell.