What Washing Machine Sales Tell You About the Economy
Whirlpool announced its earnings on May 7: a complete washout. The company reported a loss of $0.56 per share, down from a profit of $1.70 per share last year. Share values plummeted faster than an 18th-century housewife working a washboard downstroke.
The surprise announcement left investors feeling like they had just come through a spin cycle. For 70 years and through 10 recessions, Whirlpool reliably paid a dividend. Then suddenly, that income stream was wrung completely dry.
The earnings report and dividend cut stain the appeal of the appliance company known for its made-in-America appliances (approximately 80 percent of Whirlpool’s sales are manufactured domestically).
Citibank analyst Kyle Menges described the results as a “recession-level industry decline.” Shares in Whirlpool are down 28 percent on the year.
Whirlpool’s struggles could be a warning for the broader economy.
Are we heading for a recession? Are we already in one?
Other companies that rely on discretionary consumer spending are also struggling.
Roth Capital Partners chief market technician J. C. O’Hara warns that the whole sector is in trouble. Home Depot, Wynn Resorts, Macy’s, Wingstop, Abercrombie & Fitch, Kohl’s, Boot Barn, Burlington, D. R. Horton, Clorox, General Mills, Kraft Heinz and Expedia are all struggling to keep sales up and balance sheets clean.
Even McDonald’s is feeling the effects. Last year, ceo Chris Kempczinski said that cost pressures were causing people to skip meals or eat at home, which was putting pressure on earnings.
It is a sentiment rinsed and repeated by Home Depot. When it reported its results in March, chief financial officer Richard McPhail said: “Our customers also tell us they have concerns over general economic uncertainty, including inflation, growing job concerns and higher financing costs.”
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for basic goods are up 3.8 percent over last year. And the prices of some critical goods are up even more. Electricity is up 6.1 percent. Gasoline prices are up 28.4 percent, and fuel oil (which basically tracks with diesel) is up 54.3 percent.
These rising energy costs could cause a recession. When energy costs rise, so do manufacturing and transportation costs for companies. Retailers pass on the increase to consumers by raising prices. If energy prices crawl higher for too long—or worse, sharply spike higher—it could shock consumers into drastically reining in spending in an effort to pay off debt, save more, or just keep their gas tanks filled. This causes corporate sales to fall, earnings to contract, and companies to rein in spending, pay off debt, and save more—just to keep their lights on. When corporations cut back, jobs are lost. The result is further reductions in consumer spending.
“Sharp, parabolic spikes in crude have preceded nearly every U.S. recession since the 1970s,” says financial analyst Michael A. Gayed. “Oil is inflationary until it becomes deflationary.” According to Gayed, oil price spikes cause consumption to fade, business investment to disappear and credit conditions to tighten—and then the “recession arrives not because oil made everything more expensive, but because oil made the future more uncertain, faster than any agent in the economy could price.”
Economies can learn to handle slowly rising energy costs, but spikes can throw the whole system into the mud.
“The time frame determines the outcome,” Gayed says. “The speed determines the signal.”
Consumer spending makes up about 68 percent of America’s economy. If that slows down, it impacts a lot of people. Unemployment and bankruptcies result.
Famed economist Gary Shilling said on May 2 that a recession is likely by year’s end. It is almost inevitable unless the government unleashes a burst of fiscal stimulus. People should prepare for a plunging stock market. Shiller has been pessimistic on the economy for the past four years, but is he right? What should people do about it?
Charles Schwab says that to prepare, people should cut spending, reduce expenses, pay down debt, increase savings, and prepare a financial plan.
That is good advice. But Schwab misses the most important aspect of a financial plan.
For an inflation-proof, recession-proof financial plan, you need God’s laws on finances. The Creator of the material world, of human beings, of the laws of cause and effect must be at the center of any plan. God promises to protect and prosper those who faithfully follow His instruction book. But most people don’t want to live that way because it is a way of “give” that seems counterintuitive to many people who think prospering is a result of “getting.”
In fact, if everyone lived God’s way of give, it would eliminate the inflation and deflation booms and busts of the economic system.
If you would like to learn how to live this way of life in your finances, read The Financial Law You Can’t Afford to Ignore and Solve Your Money Troubles! Applying these laws will change your finances—and your life—forever.