The European Union anticipates opening four new embassies in Central Asia by 2008 in order to further its influence in the energy-rich region. However, considering the competition Europe faces from the Russians, Chinese and Americans, it appears the EU will have to up the ante if it really wants to become a major Central Asian energy player—a key component of its strategy to reduce its reliance on Russian energy imports.

As outlined by an EU strategy paper dated February 2 and submitted to member states by Germany, the EU proposes to significantly increase its on-site diplomatic muscle in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan by opening up new embassies and increasing the number of local personnel. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are especially known for their massive natural gas reserves.

“I’m now convinced more than ever we should formulate a European interest there,” said German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier after touring the region late last year. “We should take an initiative … to see if member states are prepared to make a first attempt at this under the German presidency” (UzReport.com, January 24).

To further the EU’s stated goal of establishing special energy relationships with the Central Asian states, the document recommends allocating heavy financial resources to support its “breakthrough” into Central Asia and to bring the four states plus Turkmenistan into the international community. Germany has specifically proposed funding development projects including the construction of a new gas pipeline from Central Asia along the Caspian seabed to Europe.

“The actual content of the document is not so important,” one EU diplomat said. “It’s designed to send a political signal to our partners, to the five states in question and to Russia, China and the U.S. We are saying—look we want to be in there, we want to work there” (EUobserver.com, February 6).

However, some experts say the EU plans to compete for new pipelines with Russia and China are doomed to fail. “In terms of the opacity of these regimes and the depth of Russian influence, if the EU thinks it can use Central Asia to improve its energy security it is being highly naive,” said International Crisis Group director Bob Templar.

Whether or not the EU is successful in Central Asia, this recent push into the area highlights Europe’s Achilles heel: foreign energy dependence. The Bible foretells that in the near future Europe will invade the Middle East with “whirlwind” ferocity. Energy demand will likely play a large role in instigating the next big Middle East war.