Political upheaval threatens Germany’s grip over Bosnia and Herzegovina and even risks sparking a broader conflict. A German bureaucrat and a local elected leader are facing off in a power struggle that could pit Russia and Germany against each other and return a war-torn region to violence.

The struggle stems from Western hypocrisy in Yugoslavia. The conflict began in the 1990s when Germany recognized Croatia’s and Slovenia’s independence. Yugoslavia has been gradually broken up alongside the principle that each ethnic group gets to decide for itself what state it’s a part of.

Or rather, each ethnic group but one. The Serbs were accused of dominating old Yugoslavia and they became the bad guys to the Western world. They, uniquely, do not get self-determination.

All this is coming to a head in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Bosnia is comprised of three major ethnic groups—Muslim Bosniaks, Catholic Croats and Orthodox Serbs. The Dayton Agreement, which ended the 1992–1995 war, split the country into two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska. And it gave each major ethnic group its own president.

However, none of these presidents is the top diplomat in Bosnia and Herzegovina. A clear majority in Republika Srpska would like to be independent or to join a greater Serbia. To keep the nation together, it is essentially governed by the high representative, an international official selected by an international committee, not the Bosnian people. The high representative has the power to change the constitution, veto laws, and appoint and depose officials.

German politician Christian Schmidt was appointed as high representative in 2021. This is one way Germany has maintained rule over Bosnia.

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Milorad Dodik, president of Republika Srpska, considers the high representative to be illegitimate and has openly defied the Dayton Agreement throughout his career. He has called for secession, withdrawn from federal Bosnian agencies, and created an illegal military.

In July 2023, Schmidt blocked two laws Dodik was trying to pass: one to change Bosnia’s laws on publishing official acts and another to prevent enforcement of state-level constitutional court rulings in Srpska. Dodik defied the order and continued with his plans.

As a result, on August 1 of this year, Bosnia’s court sentenced Dodik to a year in prison and banned him from Srpska’s presidency for six years. Five days later, the Central Election Commission stripped Dodik of his office.

This significantly widened the division in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Fears of a possible war between the two sides rose. Dodik traveled to Moscow after his sentence, giving the impression Russia would protect him. Bosnian federal police tried to arrest Dodik at one point, but were stopped by his powerful police force.

The Bosnian Federation and Srpska are treading lightly. Any sudden move could plunge the region back into war. Dodik appealed the verdicts against him and has seen some success. The Bosnian Court accepted a proposal by his defense team to replace his prison sentence with a fine of 36,500 Bosnian marks (about us$22,000).

However, though the immediate crisis may be over for now, the damage won’t go away quickly. Dodik has said he will defy any new elections called by the Election Commission. On August 23, Srpska ordered a referendum for October 25 to see whether the entity would accept the commission’s decision.

Bosnia seems destined to be a battleground in the near future—politically if not militarily.

Future

Germany wants to keep control of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Its position on the Adriatic Sea is crucial. But now the anti-German movement in the nation seems more powerful than it has been since 1991. Worse, this movement is backed by Russia.

This is significant in the context of Bible prophecy. Scripture shows that Germany is trying to unite Europe under its rule—partly due to fear of Russia.

Our free booklet Germany and the Holy Roman Empire proves that Revelation 17 prophesies of a European empire led by Germany. Daniel 11:40 and 44, which prophesy of this same power under the name “the king of the north,” reveal this empire will act out of fear of a power “out of the east and out of the north.” Russia is the only nation northeast of Europe.

Germany may have to act soon to keep Russia from taking parts of its European empire.

Understanding the Balkans is vital to understand how Bible prophecy is unfolding. To see the big picture of what Germany is doing in this region, read Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans.