European Politics at the Crossroads

Karol Nawrocki, presidential candidate of the Law and Justice Party, speaks to supporters following the Polish presidential runoff election on June 1.
Marek Antoni Iwaczuk/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

European Politics at the Crossroads

Poland’s presidential election this weekend was a contest between two visions for Europe. “The future of Europe will be decided in this election,” wrote the Telegraph ahead of the vote.

The narrow contest in Poland, the fall of the Dutch government, and the challenges democratic countries are facing across Europe all flow from this same trend. It has left the Continent divided between two extremes, paralyzed and vulnerable.

One side is pro-European Union, generally liberal, concerned about climate change, and woke. Its leaders may belong to traditionally conservative or right-wing parties, but they are pro-abortion, pro-homosexual rights and prepared to damage economies and livelihoods in pursuit of “net zero” carbon emissions.

In Poland, the champion for this side was Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, member of the Civic Coalition that controls Poland’s Parliament. Also in his party is Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council.

The other side is the upstarts, sometimes described as “far right.” For some countries, that label is accurate; in others, it is not. We’ll call them the “fringe right.” They’re generally anti-abortion, anti-migration, skeptical of climate change, and oppose the woke lgbt movement. In the United Kingdom, this side is also very anti-EU. In Europe, it’s not a big deal. They oppose the EU because the EU supports the other side—but they’re not ideologically opposed to the idea of a European Union as a point of principle.

Former boxer, historian and independent Karol Nawrocki was the champion for this side in Poland. He is aligned with Law and Justice, the party of outgoing President Andrzej Duda.

Nawrocki won the narrowest victory in Polish history: 50.89 percent to 49.11.

The same week, the Dutch government collapsed. Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch fringe right, pulled out of the coalition after his demands for a greater crackdown on asylum seekers were not met.

The rise of the fringe right has opened up divisions that European politics aren’t able to deal with. Countries are split between the traditional mainstream left and mainstream right, but now have to contend with new fringe-right, and sometimes fringe-left, parties as well.

Poland’s election system forces voters to pick a side. The top two candidates from an earlier round of voting went through to a run-off election—yet even then the margin of victory was razor thin.

In the Netherlands, the fringe right and mainstream right formed a coalition—yet weren’t able to last even one year. After an election, likely held in October, they’ll probably be back in this same position, stuck and unable to form a functioning government. Portugal is in the same rut and just held its third election in three years. France’s parliament has become completely nonfunctional as the nation drifts toward a pension crisis, divided between the far left, mainstream and far right.

Is there a way out of the mess?

The End of European Democracy?

The divide is hard to bridge because both sides claim to be fighting not just the normal political battle but for freedom, decency and democracy itself. And both make valid points.

The woke movement has become increasingly authoritarian. They try to ban speech they dislike and bar parties they disapprove of.

Last year in Germany, a 16-year-old German girl was pulled out of chemistry class by three police officers, just because she shared a Smurf video on TikTok supportive of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a fringe-right party. Others have faced police investigations merely for calling a politician “fat.” Ahead of the German election, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser called for the government to close down bank accounts belonging to “right-wing extremists.”

“Those who mock the state must have to deal with a strong state,” she said.

The same crackdown is happening at the European level. Through laws like the Digital Services Act, the EU is trying to crack down on “free speech” worldwide. The EU is said to be preparing a $1 billion fine for X, but has held back for fear of how United States President Donald Trump would respond. Their disinformation monitoring service really doesn’t like Elon Musk.

Perhaps the biggest demonstration of the power of the European mainstream came in November last year. Fringe candidate Călin Georgescu won the first round of Romania’s presidential election and seemed set to win the second. So the judiciary stepped in, canceled the election, and arrested Georgescu. They claimed he had been illegally backed by Russian groups.

The evidence turned out to be less compelling than advertised. A Romanian investigative outlet, snoop.ro found that much of Georgescu’s social media support didn’t come from Russia breaking election rules but a mainstream Romanian party that thought Georgescu would be easy to beat in the final round. They tried to boost him into second place and overshot.

Typically, authorities in Brussels would scream blue murder over a canceled election and imprisoned candidate. They put a €1 million per day fine on Poland over a mere disagreement of how judges are appointed. Yet this time, EU leaders were silent if not supportive of the move.

Something similar is now happening in France, where courts believe they have found a way to block Marine Le Pen from standing for president. They’ve accused her of spending funds given by the European Parliament for domestic politics within France. This, they say, is embezzlement. It’s also a standard not applied to anyone else.

Deviate from the mainstream and they’ll close ranks to block you out.

True Freedom Fighters?

On this front the fringe looks a lot better. It’s hard to fault Geert Wilders’s commitment to free speech—he has risked his freedom and his life to speak out against radical Islam.

But fringe parties are all different. Out of power, they haven’t had the same opportunities for crackdowns, but early signs aren’t good.

Poland’s new president, Nawrocki, was a key supporter of laws passed in 2018 and 2019 that criminalized attributing responsibility for the Holocaust to Poland or the Polish. It’s easy to understand why Poles would be outraged by lazy references to Auschwitz as a “Polish death camp”—as if it were the Poles, not the Nazis occupying Poland, that set it up. But the laws left historians fearing jail for genuine academic discussion about how Poles reacted to the Holocaust. It’s hardly a move from a government that values free speech.

Germany’s AfD has members that glorify actual Nazis. In 2017, AfD leader Alexander Gauland said, “If the French are rightly proud of their emperor and the Britons of Nelson and Churchill, we have the right to be proud of the achievements of the German soldiers in two world wars.”

Another influential AfD leader, Björn Höcke, said “German history is handled as rotten and made to look ridiculous.” He said German attempts to commemorate and apologize for World War ii are a “stupid coping policy” and called Germany’s Holocaust memorial “a monument of shame in the heart of its capital.” The nation needs a “180-degree reversal on the politics of remembrance.” “The AfD is the last revolutionary, the last peaceful chance for our fatherland,” he said, and the crowd chanted, “Deutschland! Deutschland!”

Compact is a magazine by and for AfD supporters. It was briefly banned by the mainstream. It presents a view of World War ii in which Germany was the victim of America. Its special editions have included:

  • “Lost Homeland” describes the “unspeakable suffering” of the 14 million Germans expelled from Eastern Europe after the war and the “martyrdom they had to endure.”
  • “Crimes Against Germans” says Germany was victimized during World War ii.
  • “Dresden 1945: The Dead, the Perpetrators and the Trivializers” discusses the “Anglo-American bombing terror” and the “mass murderer” Winston Churchill.
  • “The Death Camps of the Americans” accuses Gen. Dwight Eisenhower of carrying out the mass execution of German prisoners of war in 1945.

Is free speech really a cherished value of this party? Or is it merely a tactic its members use when they lack the upper hand?

A Continent Divided

Which way will Europe go? At the moment it’s nowhere. The different camps are two closely balanced. In Poland, one party dominates Parliament and supplies the prime minister; the other controls the presidency and vetoes anything significant the mainstream tries to do. Other countries are stuck with unstable coalitions and endless cycles of elections. The features depend on the local electoral system, but the underlying problem is the same. The divisions are too strong to get anything done.

Herbert W. Armstrong forecast for decades where this would lead. With Germany in rubble in 1945, he said it would rise again in a kind of “European union”—first as an economic union, then political then military.

He made these forecasts based on Bible prophecy, and they’ve been fulfilled with remarkable accuracy.

In 1953 he summarized the next steps for this European power:

Suddenly the world will behold a United States of Europe! Some of the Balkan nations which have been under Russia’s boot will be members of it! Ten dictators in Europe will unite, in a gigantic European combine, turning their united military power and resources over to the new leader of Europe! Not only this, but a great religious leader will also emerge, in a world-shaking pact with the military leader which will far overshadow the effect of the Hitler-Stalin non-aggression pact of 1939!

It will be a union of church and state. The religious influence will be used to cement together, and unify, these 10 nations in Europe. These will include Germany and Italy, probably Spain and Portugal and France, Greece, and probably some of the Balkan nations from among Yugoslavia, Austria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania or others.

I can’t tell you now which nations. … Definitely Britain will not be in it. And definitely, the whole thing will be fascist—and it’s well to bear in mind that Nazism is merely the German form of fascism—so it will be in fact a Nazi revival.

He made these prophecies because Bible prophecy says that what is rising in Europe is a continuation of what came before. Revelation 17 describes a beast with seven heads, and it explains that each head is another resurrection of an empire that repeatedly rises and falls. It is led by a woman—a type of a false church.

This can only be describing the Holy Roman Empire in Europe. In World War ii we saw the sixth resurrection of the Holy Roman Empire. Now the seventh is rising up.

Many of these “fringe-right” parties want a stronger role for religion. They could help pave the way for this fascist revival. But many Nazi supporters went on to support the European Union. Blueprints the Nazis produced for cementing their dominance in Europe were dusted off. Probably elements from both sides will play important roles in this coming power. The Catholic Church could play an important role in healing Europe’s divisions.

But the paralysis they’ve produced could be the most important contribution. With all of Europe grinding to a halt, the path is cleared for a strongman to seize power. Adolf Hitler could take over Germany only after the economy had crashed and its election system provided no clear majority. Napoleon took over after bitter divisions between factions almost destroyed the new French Republic.

Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has continued Mr. Armstrong’s warning since the first year the magazine was established—and every year since.

“If a real crisis develops, will the Germans call for a new führer?” he asked in the December 1991 issue. “Your Bible says that is going to happen! That crisis will probably be triggered by an economic collapse in the U.S.”

Mr. Flurry has also talked about how this leader could come to power. In a 2009 Key of David program, he said this leader could “perhaps take advantage of a weak coalition.” Germany has a weak coalition. The European Parliament is governed by a weak coalition. Europe has become a continent of weak coalitions.

The stage is set for the prophesied revival of the Holy Roman Empire. To learn more about it, read our free book The Holy Roman Empire in Prophecy.