Germany Heads for Leaderless Chaos
Germany’s governing coalition collapsed yesterday after Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister, Christian Lindner.
It was a coalition no one—neither the parties involved nor the German voters—ever wanted. The parties have contradictory views on almost all the significant issues. Unsurprisingly, they achieved little, and the popularity of everyone involved plummeted. Germany’s next election was scheduled for September 2025. But the coalition wasn’t able to hobble over the finish line. Instead, if Scholz gets his way, Germany could spend the next year in limbo with no real government.
As with many breakups, the immediate cause was a row over money. The coalition agrees they want to spend more on defense as Germany builds its military power in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and America’s withdrawal from the world. The problem is, where will that money come from?
The Social Democrats—the largest party in the coalition—prioritize social spending. The Greens prioritize environmental projects. Neither want to make cuts to free up extra funds for defense. Instead they want to declare a financial emergency, allowing them to get around the German constitution’s strict limits on debt and borrow the money.
But the Free Democrats are the third member of the coalition, and their leader, Lindner, was the finance minister, controlling the purse strings. His top priority is low taxes and low borrowing. He refused to declare the emergency, arguing—probably correctly—that it would be unconstitutional. Germany’s supreme court struck down a similar declaration last year.
So Scholz fired Lindner, effectively ending the coalition. This came after increased infighting. Last week an internal letter from Lindner leaked—perhaps deliberately—calling for spending and tax cuts to stimulate the economy in direct opposition to other members of the coalition.
But the end of the coalition doesn’t mean immediate elections. Cycles of divided governments and snap elections helped pave the way for the rise of the Nazis. To avoid a repeat of that history, the constitution gives minority governments a few avenues for chugging along.
Scholz only needs to pass a budget to remain in office until September next year. He appealed to his main opponent, Christian Democrat leader Friedrich Merz, to help him do that. Merz refused.
Now Scholz’s plan is to play for time. He scheduled a confidence vote for January 15. If he fails, the government will fall. Elections would then be held in March 2025. In 2021, it took political parties nearly two months to form a coalition; in 2017, it took nearly six months. So if Scholz gets his way, it could be another year before his successor is inaugurated. Can Germany afford to go so long without any real leadership?
Merz doesn’t think so, and he is pressuring Scholz to hold the confidence vote much sooner. But there’s little he can do to force the issue. The only way the Bundestag can force a vote of no confidence on a reluctant chancellor is if a new chancellor candidate has majority support. That’s unlikely to happen.
Nor are fresh elections likely to solve the impasse. No party is set for a majority or an easy coalition. The same divide over whether to fund defense by borrowing money or cutting social and environmental spending will remain. If the polls are anywhere close to correct, no coalition between parties that think alike on this issue is possible.
A big part of the reason for this is the rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). This far-right party has the support of 17 percent of voters. All major parties have ruled out working with it, yet it is too big to ignore. Throw in parties like the Left and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance—which have also been ruled to be too extreme for some—and any stable coalition appears impossible.
So the outlook for Germany’s future is weak, divided and unstable governance, for as far as the eye can see.
Is that something Germans will stand for? Can they afford to? Russia is fighting a land war in Europe. Israel is at war in the Middle East. Iran is lashing out; its proxy Hezbollah has threatened Cyprus, a European Union member. Donald Trump just won the United States election—and he will not keep paying the bills for Europe’s defense. He wants Europe to step up.
Germany is Europe’s biggest and most powerful nation, and it’s planning on taking the next year off. Can it really get away with that?
Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has often warned that weak German leadership will open the door for a strong leader to rise in European politics. In a 2009 Key of David program, he said this leader could “perhaps take advantage of a weak coalition.”
There is plenty of weakness coming up.
Many biblical prophecies forecast the rise of a strong leader out of Europe. He is a crucial figure in world affairs at this time.
Daniel 11:21-31 tell us how he will come to power. Most Bible commentaries correctly say this passage refers to Antiochus Epiphanes around 175 to 163 b.c. But this ancient Antiochus didn’t fulfill all these prophecies—he was only a type of a modern-day strongman.
Verse 21 states that the people “shall not give” this Antiochus “the honour of the kingdom: but he shall come in peaceably, and obtain the kingdom by flatteries.” The Jamieson, Fausset and Brown Commentary says, “The nation shall not, by a public act, confer the kingdom on him, but he shall obtain it by artifice, ‘flattering.’” Barnes’ Notes on the Old and New Testaments states, “In other words, it should not be conferred on him by any law or act of the nation, or in any regular succession or claim.”
“This man doesn’t come to power the honorable way—by being voted into office,” Mr. Flurry wrote in November 2002. “He takes it dishonorably! He will work behind the scenes and come to power by flatteries—not votes!”
Complex coalition negotiations or an ineffective coalition government provide the perfect opportunity for these prophecies to be fulfilled. Germans have faced weak coalitions and long negotiations for years. They are desperate for some kind of solution. The rise of the AfD shows they’re willing to embrace something out of the ordinary to make this happen.
If Germany remains politically paralyzed while troubles multiply at home and Europe burns, it is easy to foresee Germans clamoring for a strong leader. This is where Germany’s political paralysis and Europe’s crises are leading.
The U.S. election has been a dramatic fulfillment of Bible prophecy. Watch Germany for the fulfillment of one of our most long-standing prophecies. To understand these prophecies ahead of time, read our free booklet A Strong German Leader Is Imminent.