If America Falls, Who Will Take Its Place?
Only a century ago, Britain was at the peak of being the greatest world empire in history. The speed at which it plummeted to its current status as a second-rate power, divested of its imperial holdings, struggling to define itself as one component of a rising federalist Europe, is truly breathtaking. It surely would have come as an enormous shock to anyone who viewed it in its heyday—such preponderance of power always holds the illusion of permanence.
With that history to look back on, many analysts are saying the United States is today treading the same path toward the loss of superpower.
To this point, the erosion of power has been held up by the status of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency. But signs that this status could be near its end are increasing. And geopolitically, the economic collapse precipitated by a run on the dollar would have dire consequences for the U.S.
As Richard B. Du Boff wrote for the Monthly Review, “The use of armed force has always been an inseparable part of hegemony, but military power depends upon the economic resources at the disposal of the state. …
“Britannia ruled the waves from 1815 to 1913, but by the 1890s she was under economic challenge from the United States and Germany, and between the two world wars was no longer able to function as underwriter to the world system. U.S. hegemony began during the Second World War and peaked some 30 years later. The United States still has immense—unequalled—power in international economics and politics, but even as the sole superpower it finds itself less able than it once was to influence and control the course of events abroad. Its military supremacy is no longer matched in the economic and political spheres, and is of dubious value in preserving the global economic order and the stake that U.S. capital has in it” (emphasis ours).
In his article, Du Boff gave numerous examples illustrating the U.S.’s loss of economic power over past decades. Until 1970, for example, U.S. economic sanctions against other countries were abided by; by the 1980s they were successful in less than 10 percent of cases. From 1950 to 2003, America’s share of the world’s gross domestic product fell from 50 percent to 21 percent. From 1960 to 2001, America’s percentage of global direct foreign investment more than halved, from 47 percent to 21 percent.
Conversely, the economic power of Europe has been on the increase. In the period from 1999, when the euro was introduced, to 2003, for example, 44 percent of new bonds that were issued were in euros—approaching the 48 percent issued in dollars. “For the first time since the Second World War there is another source of universally acceptable payment and liquidity in the world economy—at a moment when the U.S. balance of international payments is chalking up record deficits. …
“The United States now faces a formidable rival—the EU, its equal in production and trade. The EU is also an emerging political entity, anchored by France and Germany and bent on greater competition with the United States despite the mismatch in military power” (ibid.).
Watch for Europe to fill the economic—and geopolitical—gap as America becomes increasingly ineffective in its endeavors to maintain its place in the global order. The Economist of September 16 commented on the rise of emerging economies and how this will reorder the world’s economic power balance. “Shifts in economic power tend to be associated with disruptions in the world economy, and are rarely smooth. The globalization that followed the industrial revolution was brought to an end by two world wars, high protectionist barriers and the Great Depression. Now the rise in emerging economies is once again altering power relations among states and creating new geopolitical risks.”
And who does the Economist suggest has the most to gain in this reordering of relations between nations?
“Since 1997 employment in the euro area has grown slightly faster than in America. Over the past decade, European firms have been much more successful than America in holding down unit labor costs and thus remaining competitive. And since 2000 the euro area’s share of world export markets has risen slightly, to 17 percent, whereas America’s share has slumped from 14 percent to 10 percent. Thus, by many measures of competitiveness, Europe appears to be coping better with the emerging economies than America. …
“In a few years’ time, the relative economic fortunes of America and the euro area could be reversed.” With the added insight given to us from biblical prophecy, we can say the fortunes of these two powers will be reversed.
Increasingly, America is under economic siege from all sides. Europe is in strong competition with the U.S. and is being supported by anti-American elements around the world. The countries of Latin America are ganging up on the U.S. and seeking closer ties with Europe; Asian nations are joining forces to become more competitive. America’s war on terror has only alienated other nations further, with public opinion swinging against the U.S.
“It’s a geopolitical nightmare,” said consultant William Cohen, former defense secretary, earlier this year, specifically referring to America’s impotence in the face of rising oil prices. Such nations as Iran, Russia and China, he said, “don’t see us as the colossus that can cause them any harm, either by our economy or by our prestige.”
Many, of course, would counter the idea that the American empire is in trouble: Look at the U.S. military, they might say; look at the nation’s affluence. To this, Matthew Parris, writing for Times Online, had this to say: “More display is made in the spending of an inheritance than in its quiet accumulation …. Like economic booms or summer solstices, empires have a habit of appearing at their most florid some time after their zenith has passed. Of the rise and fall of nations, history tends to find that the era of exuberance occurs when the underlying reasons for it are beginning to weaken. …
“[T]he truth is that the U.S. is in relentless relative decline as an economic power in the world. The years after the Second World War (the years of the Marshall Plan)—when the economies of most of its competitors had been wrecked while its own was growing strongly—were the noontide of American muscle. … But for many decades America’s share of the world’s economic output has been in decline. Think of a see-saw. America at one end is now easily outweighed by any substantial grouping at the other, and most of those powers are on friendly terms with each other.”
Increasingly, commentators are drawing the comparison between the downfall of the British Empire and America today as the evidence becomes more and more apparent. There was one commentator, however, who foresaw that America would follow the path of Britain fully four decades ago—and pointed to the underlying cause.
Herbert W. Armstrong wrote in the September 1966 Plain Truth, “Since World War ii, when we let morals sink into the cesspool, God has begun stripping [the sea gates] from us, one by one. …
“Now the British Empire is a thing of the past! …
“Britain’s sun has set! Britain’s midnight is fast approaching! …
“The United States came to great world power a little later. The United States’ sun sets a little later than England’s. But America’s sun is now setting! …
“God blessed our nations with wealth, power, material blessings such as no nations ever enjoyed. Then we call God a stern, harsh God—we say that the very laws He set in motion to bring every blessing we desire are against us, we say ‘God is dead,’ and we cause every evil and curse to come on us—and then blame it on God! You deceived peoples of America and Britain, when will you wake up to truth?”