Once thought defeated, the Taliban is creating chaos in Afghanistan, and lately its weapon of choice has been the suicide bombing. In the latter half of 2005, the Taliban engaged in 22 suicide missions. Since the beginning of 2006 till now, that number has increased to 69. With 23 coalition soldiers dead and more than 80,000 rounds expended since July, the West has been caught flat-footed while the Taliban look to take the edge.

Shortly after the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan began in 2001, the battle was considered won; Afghanistan was in the bag. But the victory has not proven nearly as tidy as was hoped. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated September 10 that the Taliban “came back somewhat more organized and somewhat more capable than people would’ve expected.”

Britain Defense Secretary Des Browne admitted that the fight nato troops are engaged in is “even harder than we expected,” adding, “The Taliban’s tenacity in the face of massive losses has been a surprise, absorbing more of our effort than we predicted it would and consequently slowing progress on reconstruction” (bbc News, September 19).

General James Jones, nato’s supreme allied commander, said that troops have encountered “more resistance than we originally thought,” adding that he felt that on top of the 19,000 nato troops in Afghanistan, the forces needed more equipment, including attack helicopters and large cargo planes. The Taliban has certainly stepped up its pressure on coalition forces.

“Through our intelligence sources we know there’s a cell here in Kabul, at least one, whose primary mission is to seek coalition or international troops and hit them with suicide bombs,” chief U.S. spokesman Col. Tom Collins said.

According to think tank Stratfor, the Taliban isn’t the only problem facing coalition and international forces in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda could share some of the blame for the renewed insurgency using suicide bombers. In a September 14 report, Stratfor stated, “Al Qaeda is increasing the number of suicide bombers in Afghanistan as part of its reinvestment in that theater, which began in early 2005. Furthermore, although the majority of suicide bombers come from outside the country, the native Afghan militants … are slowly adapting to the suicide bombing tactic, though perhaps not as fast as the Taliban and al Qaeda leadership would want.” So more suicide bombings could just be on the horizon.

The Taliban knows it can’t win a war with Western coalition forces head on, so the best means to wear down its enemy is in a war of attrition. It is no surprise the Taliban has adopted this strategy, with help from al Qaeda. After all, it worked in Afghanistan under the Mujahadeen, it is working in Iraq, and Hezbollah used it to draw Israel into a stalemate.

The reality is becoming clear to military thinkers: Afghanistan is far from being in the bag. The Taliban is turning the nation on its ear.