What precisely did Israel get out of the cease-fire in Lebanon? Well, it got a (temporary) cessation of rocket attacks on its cities. And … well, not much else.

As Douglas Davis wrote for the Spectator, “Israelis emerged from their bomb shelters to find that nothing much had changed, apart from the devastation that was caused by about a thousand Hezbollah missiles. The message that greeted them was that their protection against future attacks would come not from their army but from a United Nations resolution which promises much but is unlikely to deliver. There is little confidence among Israelis that a UN resolution can succeed where the combined might of the Israeli army, navy and air force failed” (August 19).

Not only was Israel’s greatest tool of deterrence—the perception of its invincibility—smashed. Not only are the two Israeli soldiers who were taken hostage still in Hezbollah’s hands. Not only is a psychologically boosted and popular Hezbollah still flourishing right over the border. Not only have the main culprits—Iran and Syria—gotten off scot-free.

In addition to all these unsavory realities, the cease-fire Israel agreed to makes no provision for Hezbollah to be disarmed.

Of course, Hezbollah refuses to disarm. The Lebanese government says it won’t forcefully disarm Hezbollah. The United Nations force has not been assigned the job. What’s more, though a 15,000-man UN force has been promised as part of the cease-fire agreement, few countries are committing troops until Hezbollah disarms voluntarily.

Who then, pray tell, will disarm Hezbollah?

Stratfor wrote yesterday,

The main complication underlying the extremely fragile cease-fire currently hovering over Lebanon is Hezbollah’s refusal (and lack of incentive) to disarm. Despite the fact that Israel has failed to cripple the resistance movement militarily, the international community is now talking as though it will be able to do so diplomatically. The Lebanese Army will coexist with Hezbollah—a far cry from forcing it to disarm. The task of taking on Hezbollah fighters thus falls on the shoulders of the United Nations—though most contributing countries have volunteered only on the condition that Hezbollah first disarm voluntarily.

What it comes down to is, no nation will cross Hezbollah: No one is prepared to forcefully disarm this band of terrorists, and no nation will enter the fray until it is disarmed. Perhaps this is as good as it gets: The French daily Le Monde quoted a high-ranking UN official as saying, “We are not going to actively seek out Hezbollah’s arms …. But if, during a patrol, we come across a cache, our mandate is to seize those rockets.” Surely that must have Hezbollah running scared.

And this is the agreement Israels have invested their faith in?

As Douglas Davis wrote, this cease-fire “simply guarantees that the next round will be even more devastating, vicious and deadly.”