Natural Disasters, Precursor to Terrorist Attacks
Unanswered questions torment many Americans in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. What will Katrina cost? How long before New Orleans is rebuilt? How long before the critical infrastructure in the region will be back in operation? What will be the political consequences? The list goes on.
A particularly alarming issue is the nation’s vulnerability to terrorist attacks in the wake of natural disasters.
Hurricane Katrina struck a dizzying blow to the U.S. The nation was thrown into economic, political and social turmoil. Within days of the disaster, tens of thousands of national guardsmen and army personnel descended upon Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi. How much of a void did their transfer leave in the nation’s security? What better time to strike a nation than when it’s reeling from a catastrophic natural disaster?
Analysts at Stratfor took up this idea in a September 7 report. “Essentially, what Katrina has done is soften the ground and create an environment that, at least for a short time, would give al Qaeda or like-minded actors an extremely favorable cost-benefit ratio for any potential attacks,” they wrote. “The United States has already been weakened; by kicking it when it’s down, the radical Islamists—theoretically speaking—could make themselves appear that much stronger and more effective.”
Natural disasters are a perfect precursor for terrorist attacks. Consider the state of America right now. Its national security has been weakened, if only temporarily. The federal government has been driven to refocus its attention on issues surrounding the disaster. The economy has been somewhat destabilized and subject to costly fluctuations—the spike in gas prices is but one case in point. Many Americans are anxious and emotional, prone to paranoia. The climate of fear and uncertainty plays perfectly into a terrorist’s hands.
Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups would like nothing more than to see the entire territory of the “Great Satan” leveled like New Orleans. Surely they want to exploit this recent national crisis and are exploring possibilities for attacks in Katrina’s wake. These terrorists are aware that America’s national security personnel are stretched right now. They know the country is vulnerable. “Now, with Katrina, the United States has been struck—economically and politically—in what amounts to, in every sense, its soft underbelly. Judging from statements put out during the past week over the Internet, al Qaeda and its supporters are well aware of this” (ibid.).
In the same article, Stratfor drew attention to the 60th UN assembly this week as being an opportune time for an attack by al Qaeda or a related terrorist organization. “From our viewpoint, the United States is entering a high-risk period brought about by the confluence of two contingencies: a catastrophic geopolitical event, Hurricane Katrina—which is simultaneously hurting the economy, creating a distraction for the government and generating perceptions of political weakness for the Bush administration—and, very soon, a high-profile political event, the 60th UN General Assembly, which will convene Sept. 13 in New York City” (ibid.).
Yes, natural disasters can leave nations vulnerable to terrorist attacks. It is entirely possible that terrorists will seek to take advantage of American vulnerability in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. In the future, similar disasters—weather-related or human caused, or both, as was the case in the disorder within New Orleans—will undoubtedly be seen as windows of opportunity for terrorists, ready to exploit in their efforts to cripple their greatest enemy.
