Cypriot Elections: Nation Chooses Europe
Cypriots had a clear choice in their presidential elections February 24. One candidate pledged to seek a bailout quickly, and submit to the painful conditions Europe imposed. He was endorsed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The other promised to resist Europe’s austerity.
The result was a landslide. With 57.5 percent of the vote in runoff elections, Nicos Anastasiades—Merkel’s pick—won with the greatest majority in 30 years.
The election was almost exclusively about a single issue: the bailout. Cyprus needs a bailout by April or the government will run out of cash and default on its debt.
Anastasiades promises to be more cooperative, and he is the overwhelming choice of the people. “We want Europe on our side,” Anastasiades said on Sunday. “We will be absolutely consistent and meet our promises. Cyprus belongs to Europe.” There will be no flirting with Russia, trying to get the EU and Russia to bid against each other for influence. The Cypriots have made their choice—they will accept Europe’s terms.
That’s not to say Anastasiades will be a pushover. He’ll try to negotiate the best deal he can get. He’s not keen on privatizations or changing Cypriot banks. But when you promise in advance not to leave the negotiating table, you give up a lot of your bargaining power.
Anastasiades appointed Ioannis Kasoulides as his foreign minister—a pick that will go down well in Europe. Kasoulides is the vice chairman of the European People’s Party (epp) in the European Parliament. Merkel’s party, the Christian Democratic Union, also belongs to the epp.
But Anastasiades still has a tough job ahead of him. Cyprus needs a bailout of €17 billion (us$22 billion). Cyprus is a vital strategic location, and Germany’s leadership may be excited about snapping it up for a bargain basement price. But the German people aren’t.
Sixty-three percent of those surveyed in a poll released a few days ago were against bailing out Cyprus. Only 16 percent were for it. Sixty percent said it was something “very important” or “important” when it came to selecting Germany’s next chancellor.
This makes it a tricky situation for Merkel, who is up for election in the autumn. Cyprus is willing to hand over sovereignty in exchange for German cash. But the German people don’t want the deal.
However, the situation will also make it easy for Germany to apply pressure on Cyprus to get more concessions. Germany holds almost all the cards. The bailout money needed is a huge amount for Cyprus, but is only a small percentage of Europe’s bailout fund. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble told the German daily newspaper Stuttgarter Zeitung: “I will not allow myself to be put under time pressure” over Cyprus. Germany can use public opposition to the bailout to play hard to get, and make Cyprus give up even more in exchange for the money.
Germany has even toyed with the idea of getting Russia involved. The way many Germans see it, bailing out Cyprus’s banks means giving money to the corrupt Russians who have invested in them. Having Russia contribute a portion of the bailout could make it more palatable to the public.
If that happens, rest assured that Germany will still be in control. The International Monetary Fund played a key role in the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. But Europe retained power. Should Germany get Russia involved, it will be on similar terms.
Germany is in the process of gaining control of a vital piece of real estate for any European nation that wants to project its power in the Middle East. For more information on what is going on here, see Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry’s Web exclusive video “Cyprus Surrenders to Germany.”