Chaos in Syria and Egypt

JERUSALEM—What a weekend it was here in the Middle East. In Syria, a sharp escalation in violence forced the United Nations to suspend all of its monitoring activities in the war-torn nation. This suspension, the New York Times wrote, “could signal the failure of the latest effort by the West to reach a diplomatic solution and ease Mr. Assad from power” (June 16).

The Times also noted that a nato-led bombing campaign, similar to the one launched against Libya last year, is not a viable solution since much of the fighting between Bashar al-Assad’s regime and rebel forces is being waged within crowded cities.

Meanwhile Russia—which supports Syria and has interests in protecting its naval base in Tartus—has continually blocked any stronger UN intervention in Syria and is suspected of supplying government forces with weapons and ammunition. And of course there’s Iran, Syria’s puppet master. Iran is not about to let its most important ally go away quietly, you can be sure.

But with all of that said, there have been some strong signals of late indicating that the days of the Syrian dictator may well be numbered. First, there was a piece in the Jerusalem Post last week that said Israel was concerned about Hezbollah moving its sophisticated weaponry from Syria to Lebanon, just in case Assad’s government collapses.

“The understanding until now has been that the missiles would only be transferred to Lebanon in the event of a war with Israel but not before as to prevent a potential Israeli military strike,” the Jerusalem Post reported (June 13). But according to recent reports, the Post continued, Assad might be losing control over certain military installations, including an air defense base, which was captured by rebels this last week.

Added to that, Israel’s government is now openly lobbying for Assad’s ouster. Until recently, Israel had been very careful not to publicly condemn the atrocities of Assad’s regime. But that abruptly changed just last week, when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other members of his government, as well as defense officials, took turns denouncing Assad’s reign of terror.

“Ultimately, the Israelis are convinced that the hourglass of Mr. Assad’s tenure has been flipped on its head, and have begun making preparations for the day after his ousting.” That’s what Daniel Nisman editorialized in the Wall Street Journal on June 14. “In condemning Assad’s regime,” Nisman continued, “the Israelis appealed directly to the hearts and minds of the Sunni-Arab world at a time when both find themselves pitted against a common enemy: Mr. Assad. Accusations of Iranian involvement in Syria are meant to remind Mr. Assad’s opponents in the Gulf that Israel stands on their side in the struggle against Shia regional domination.”

These two competing power blocs can be more specifically defined as those aligned with Iran, the biblically prophesied “king of the south,” and those that oppose Iran’s regional hegemony. The Bible indicates that in the latter days, just before the Great Tribulation, Syria would be among the allied nations that oppose Iran. This is why we have been forecasting for many years that there would be a break in the Iranian-Syrian relationship.

As the situation in Syria continues to unravel, watch for a political upheaval that will ultimately break Syria’s ties to Iran.

Now in Egypt, south of Israel’s border, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohammad Morsi, won the presidential run-off against Ahmed Shafiq over the weekend. Just prior to the election, Egypt’s military court thrust the political process into chaos when it dissolved the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated parliament.

And so the country’s first free presidential election has been marred by the military’s sudden grab of power, which many analysts have been calling a coup. Hours before the Muslim Brotherhood announced their victory early Monday, the military council issued its own interim constitution, which severely limits the president’s powers. According to the New York Times, “The military’s new charter is the latest in a series of swift steps that the generals have taken to tighten their grasp on power just at the moment when they had promised to hand over to elected civilians the authority that they assumed on the ouster of Hosni Mubarak last year. Their charter gives them control of all laws and the national budget, immunity from any oversight, and the power to veto a declaration of war” (June 18).

The Egyptian military has reasserted itself—and powerfully so! And you can certainly see why, with the Muslim Brotherhood first imposing its will on parliament just a few months ago and now winning the presidency.

Whether the military will honor its previous promise to relinquish its power by the end of June is now an open question. If Egyptians feel the country is once again falling under the thumb of the old regime, it could spark a new wave of protests, which may benefit the Muslim Brotherhood in the long run. “[S]hould sustained mass protests ensue,” the Washington Institute wrote this past weekend, “the military will back down, as it has done in almost every confrontation with the Brotherhood to date.”

This power struggle between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian military may well continue for a few more months. But with the stunning victories the Brotherhood has enjoyed over the past year, it’s only a matter of time before they gain enough strength to transform Egypt into a radical Islamist state.