Will Saudi Arabia Trade the U.S. for Germany?
Without U.S. military support, Saudi Arabia is backed into a corner, facing Iranian belligerence.
A series of attacks on Saudi Arabia is undermining investor confidence in the kingdom as a regional investment hub. A few examples:
- Iran-backed Houthis targeted the King Fahd International Airport in Dammam yesterday, killing two and wounding eight.
- On October 10, the Houthis attacked the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing 13 people and wounding more than 300.
- On September 10, drones launched by pro-Iran militias in Iraq struck Saudi Arabia’s crucial East-West Pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown.
This comes as Iran maintains its blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s main route for exporting its oil.
The pressure is growing on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
I can’t think of another time when the challenge facing mbs was more. He’s dealing with the Iranians on one side of the country, which is very difficult and problematic, and then he’s dealing with the Houthis who aligned with the Iranians on the other.
—H. A. Hellyer, analyst for Royal United Services Institute
In this critical moment, the U.S. is providing little help. U.S. President Donald Trump has so far declined repeated requests from Crown Prince Mohammed for direct U.S. military aid—even though the U.S. and Israel’s February attack on Iran partly triggered these recent aggressions against the Saudis.
Saudi Arabia finds itself in a delicate situation in the face of Houthi attacks, as well as U.S. hesitation. Trump for the time being seems to be refusing to commit to offering the needed military backing.
—Laurent Bonnefoy, researcher for ceri/Sciences Po
Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy is suffering the consequences.
- According to the International Monetary Fund, the Saudi economy will contract by 3.3 percent this year rather than growing by 1.7 percent as projected in July.
- Saudi Arabia was forced to cancel the Future Investment Initiative (“Davos in the Desert”) scheduled for October 26–29.
And Saudi Arabia is not the only one affected. Volker Treier, foreign trade chief of the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, noted on October 12:
With their recent attacks on airports, energy facilities and other critical infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the Houthis are targeting sensitive areas that are also relevant to the German economy.
While the U.S. wavers and withdraws, watch for Germany to fill the void. Prophecies in Psalm 83 and Daniel 11 warn that these two nations’ current economic partnership will grow into a powerful military alliance that will direct its firepower not just against the Iranians but also against the Americans.