The world’s attention has fixed on the Strait of Hormuz because of the oil trade shock caused by the Iran war. The International Chamber of Commerce is warning that the more consequential damage may show up on dinner tables.

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• It exposes how our world’s food production is an intricate and tangled web, suspended on a fragile dependence on chemical fertilizers.

Hormuz normally facilitates close to a third of seaborne fertilizer trade, along with the natural gas used to make it. icc Secretary General John Denton told the Wall Street Journal that available fertilizer capacity has fallen by nearly 40 percent—about 2.7 million tons lost because Gulf cargoes cannot be rerouted.

• If passage is not restored soon, he said, grain prices could rise by as much as 80 percent. Import-dependent economies would feel it first. Denton cited the Philippines as an example, which buys about 90 percent of its fertilizer abroad.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s food price index rose for a third straight month in September to its highest level since November 2022.

• Compared with June, cereal prices were up 18 percent, maize 26 percent and wheat 22 percent, the World Bank reported. Higher fertilizer costs are part of the reason.

• After Iran blocked the strait, the world’s main nitrogen fertilizer, urea, spiked more than 80 percent. Farmers in parts of Africa, South Asia and Latin America have already cut the amounts they use—the consequences of which will become clear at the next harvest. Though energy markets can correct quickly, a missed planting season can’t.

Hormuz is not the only squeeze on food supplies. The World Food Program has warned that tens of millions more people could slip into acute hunger because of compounding pressures:

• Attacks in the Black Sea have cut Ukrainian grain shipments and halted exports of ammonium nitrate once bound for East Africa and South Asia.

• Forecasters expect a strong El Niño to peak between November and January, bringing drought risk to parts of Southeast Asia, southern Africa, Australia and South Asia—regions that grow food staples and also depend on imported fertilizer.

Iran is in no hurry to reopen the strait. Parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf said yesterday that it will remain closed until the U.S. accepts Iran’s seven conditions, tied to the Islamabad memorandum. Last week, President Trump rejected that roadmap.

• The icc is working with the UN on a passage arrangement. But Denton said it cannot start without a political agreement, and the two sides are not close to one.

Modern food production methods, relying on synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, hybrid crops and machinery, have made massive contributions to reducing starvation worldwide. They have also created other vulnerabilities and problems.

Food insecurity that ripples across the world because of the closure of one waterway foreshadows much greater crises to come—when biblical prophecies of famine will be fulfilled.

America Pulls B1s From Britain

The United States Air Force abruptly withdrew all 12 of its B1 bombers from a British Air Force base over the weekend, in what the Telegraph said would be seen “as an extraordinary vote of no-confidence in Britain.”

The New York Times wrote, “The withdrawal was highly unusual: Such moves are rarely made so quickly from an allied air base in a peacetime country thousands of miles from a combat zone.”

The maneuver was clearly hurried, with the Air Force scrambling refueling tankers to get them home.

• This comes after a thwarted attack on the base by “Middle Eastern-looking men” last week. The unusual move indicates that U.S. authorities do not believe Britain could keep the base safe and perhaps had intelligence of another attack.

Bible prophecy warns about Britain’s lax migration prophecies. For decades, the Trumpet and its predecessor, the Plain Truth under Herbert W. Armstrong, have shown that the biblical Israelite tribe of Ephraim was the ancestor of modern Britain.

• “Ephraim, he hath mixed himself among the people [or foreigners]; Ephraim is a cake not turned” (Hosea 7:8). The nation may look good on the surface, but the inside has been overbaked and burned out.

• “Strangers have devoured his strength, and he knoweth it not: yea, gray hairs are here and there upon him, yet he knoweth not” (verse 9).

Now Britain’s relationship with the U.S. is being damaged because the nation cannot keep vital military bases safe from the migrants it has invited in and from their descendants, who support Britain’s enemies.

Are U.S. bases any safer? America has been pursuing similar policies. We are seeing the obvious, inevitable consequences of welcoming in huge numbers of people who hate you—and are motivated by their deep convictions to kill you.

U.S. Gives Iran Sanctions Relief

The United States has granted a sanctions exemption for Iranian flights to Iraq, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi said Friday. That the U.S. would allow Iran such sanctions relief in such a battleground country is a major concession by the U.S. to Iran.

• The exemption applies to flights from Iran to Najaf, a Shiite holy city in Iraq. Airlines shuttled 12,000 to 13,000 people a day to and from Najaf before the U.S. imposed sanctions last month on Iranian commercial airlines and countries allowing them to operate.

• Now, most Iranian airlines would be allowed to operate up to 40 daily flights between Najaf and cities in Iran. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein publicly thanked the U.S. for “respect for religious freedom” and access to holy sites.

• Not included in the sanctions relief is Mahan Air, an airline widely believed to be a front company for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The exemption comes as the U.S. formally ends its occupation of Iraq on September 30. Iran still maintains a heavy presence in Iraq through the Popular Mobilization Forces (pmf), Shiite militias that are technically part of the Iraqi military but are Islamic terror groups loyal to Iran.

• Prime Minister Zaidi is trying to deepen ties with America while living next to Iran. The flight cutoff had angered Iran-aligned parties and militias inside Iraq.

• Zaidi offered guarantees the flights would not move weapons, sanctioned people or illicit money. Nevertheless, Iran is almost certainly going to use the sanctions exemption as a loophole to continue arming the pmf and engage in other terrorist activities.

Since the 1990s, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has warned that “Iraq has fallen to Iran.” He said this, based on Bible prophecy, back when Saddam Hussein still ruled Iraq as an enemy of Iran. He maintained his forecast when America ousted Hussein in 2003 and exerted direct control over much of the country. Now, it is more than clear Iraq has fallen to Iran. It appears more and more that the U.S. is being forced to accept this reality.

IN OTHER NEWS

Merz: Ukraine can count on Germany: Amid air-raid sirens, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz visited Kyiv yesterday with Economics Minister Katherina Reiche and 10 business leaders. During the visit, he announced a $1.5 billion aid package to fund drone production, long-range strike capabilities and energy infrastructure. German and Ukrainian defense companies also signed 15 cooperation agreements valued at $7.4 billion, and Merz called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war. Merz stated that Ukraine could “continue to count on” Germany’s help. Despite this seemingly strong support for Ukraine, Germany is not really its friend. Instead, it has made secret agreements with Russia against Ukraine.

Brazilian elections head to runoff: Yesterday, right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote in Brazil’s presidential election, two points above incumbent left-wing Luiz Inácio da Silva. However, since neither received more than 50 percent, they will head to a runoff election on October 25. Although a potential Bolsonaro victory may suggest Brazil will pursue stronger ties with the United States, considering he has been vocally pro-Trump, Bible prophecy warns South America will instead ally with Europe.

Sánchez calls for early elections: Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced today that early elections will be held on November 29. This announcement follows protests regarding housing affordability and opposition parties blocking two emergency decrees in parliament. Herbert W. Armstrong speculated that Spain would become part of a prophesied resurrected Holy Roman Empire. To achieve this, Spain will likely need a new leader who more strongly embraces Europe’s Catholic roots—and militarization.