When he’s not trying to bring peace to Hormuz, Gaza, Lebanon or Syria, there is one other Middle Eastern conflict United States President Trump is trying to solve. The country in question is Libya.

Since 2020, Libya has effectively had two governments: one in Tripoli in the west, and one in the eastern city of Tobruk. Libya’s governance has been paralyzed, its economy is in shambles, and rival militias jostle for control of Tripoli’s neighborhoods.

President Trump thinks he has a chance of fixing this. Could his peace plan work? What are the risks? Would the Libyan people accept it?

What’s on Offer

President Trump’s envoy to the Arab world, Massad Boulos (who is also his in-law), outlined his plan in a Financial Times piece in June. The U.S. plan “is to have one unified government and to unify all the institutions.” It would put Saddam Haftar, son of the warlord leading one of the factions, in charge of a “Presidential Council.” The leader of another faction, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, would keep his job as prime minister. Both sides get to keep some power, and neither has to face an election that could boot them out.

Can the two sides really come together? There are signs of progress: Dbeibah’s and Haftar’s militaries took part in joint exercises with the U.S. in Libya in April. President Trump has also been encouraging U.S. oil companies to invest in Libya. ConocoPhillips and Chevron made arrangements with Libya earlier this year. Libya has Africa’s largest proven oil reserves, but its political situation has made most of this oil unreachable. Boulos told the Times he believes Libya’s oil production could double to 3 million barrels a day by 2030. “This will put Libya on the global map of major oil producers,” he said.

But both sides still don’t trust each other. “The fear from the Dbeibah camp,” Tim Eaton of Chatham House told the Times, “would be that any deal with the Haftars, particularly if it placed Saddam in the presidency council, would be that he would use it as a springboard to take over the rest of the government. There will be a trust problem there, and that would be difficult to navigate.”

It’s also not enough to convince these two factions to work together. Both leaders rely on the support of patchwork militias with varying levels of allegiance. A pact with “the other side” could break many militias’ allegiance. Already there are signs the militias aren’t happy.

The Souq al-Jumaa Movement, an affiliate of the Rada militia, started protests designed to “completely paralyze the government” after blackouts caused by high temperatures hit the city. They fell short of their goal, but still closed offices of the government’s telecommunications corporation, the Central Bank of Libya and other government branches. They stormed oil production facilities, halting the production of the El Feel field, which produces 80,000 to 90,000 barrels a day.

The protests have since died down, but clearly control, even by the main factions, is wobbling.

What Comes Next?

The Trumpet analyzes world events in light of Bible prophecy. A passage in Daniel 11 has particular relevance for the Middle East today, and it directly concerns Libya.

Daniel 11:40 speaks of an end-time “king of the south” provoking world war against a “king of the north.” As Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry details in The King of the South, this king of the south represents an Islamist bloc led by Iran, while the king of the north is a united European power.

Verses 42-43 reveal other countries the king of the north fights, implying they are allied with Iran: “He shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape. But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps.”

Mr. Flurry writes:

So you need to watch Libya and Ethiopia. They are about to fall under the heavy influence or control of Iran, the king of the south. That is why they are subdued in the king of the north’s victory. … Both countries are already influenced by radical Islam but are not in the radical camp—yet. You need to watch for Libya and Ethiopia to turn severely in that direction.

This implies serious changes in Libya’s status quo—or at the very least, serious changes in the current leadership’s worldview. America is trying to mend Libya’s divisions and prop up the current government as an ally, but Bible prophecy shows America will not only fail in this endeavor, but whatever effort it invests in Libya will end up being hijacked by its greatest Middle Eastern foe.

President Trump may end up helping to bring this about. Resentment against both the Tripoli and Tobruk governments is building. If President Trump creates a short-term arrangement that props up Libya’s current corrupt leaders, he would look like their enablers. Any unrest would then be against not only the current leadership but also America’s sponsorship. Libya’s opposition would naturally turn to Iran and the radical Islamist movement.

Expect dramatic changes in Libya soon.

To learn more, request a free copy of The King of the South.