Is Angela Merkel’s tenure as German chancellor drawing to a close?

Remember the forecast this year that whatever happens in the German elections, Angela Merkel would win one way or the other? After the collapse of the coalition talks on Sunday evening, this forecast, too, has ended where most other political forecasts have gone in the past few years. 

It is premature to write Ms Merkel’s political obituary, but we are not too far from this point…If you think through all the options under the German constitution, it is hard now to envisage one in which Ms Merkel remains as chancellor beyond a few months…

The only constellation where Ms Merkel could re-emerge as a political leader would require a rapid shift in popular support for the CDU and for her in particular. If she were to fight the election, and improve on the CDU’s dismal result by a good margin, it would become harder for the FDP to continue to resist entering into a coalition. 

There are too many potential scenarios to make any firm predictions. But the scenario in which Ms Merkel re-emerges as German chancellor for another four years has a low probability. So if you are one of those who consider her the leader of the western world, it is time to look somewhere else.