New Russian Military Doctrine: Prepare for Large-scale War
Russia’s new military doctrine was presented this month by Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, with stress placed on the need for Russia’s military to prepare for large-scale war that will use both conventional and hybrid warfare.
“[O]ur armed forces must be prepared to wage wars and armed conflicts of a new type using classic and asymmetric methods of operations,” Gerasimov said in a March 2 speech delivered at the Academy of Military Science in Moscow.
He stressed that Russia must be superior to “any potential enemy” and that military planners must make “every effort” to ensure “technical, technological and organizational superiority.” Gerasimov discussed the urgent need to upgrade Russia’s nuclear and non-nuclear weapons systems.
He explained that Russia has already taken key steps toward this end, adding that it is vital for Russia to remain “a step ahead” of adversaries.
Gerasimov said that in earlier eras of warfare, a country was generally able to wait until conflict erupted to shift into war mode and to begin using its industrial capacity to manufacture arms, but the modern era of advanced and computer-based technology is different. “The difficulty with modern weaponry is that to start producing it on short notice when the fighting begins is unlikely to succeed,” he said, “and so everything that is needed must be produced in the required quantity and delivered to the troops already in peacetime.”
‘Gerasimov’s Doctrine 2.0.’
Gerasimov’s proposals are significant because he is the same general who presented a report to the military in 2013, calling on Russia to rely more on hybrid warfare. These are asymmetrical military and non-military strategies, including unmarked troops, cyberattacks, political warfare and information warfare.
The following year, Russia used several of those methods to forcibly annex Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and destabilize eastern Ukraine. It was also around this time that Russia ramped up cyberattacks and an information war on Western nations.
Those strategies were remarkably successful for Russia, and they trace back to Valery Gerasimov. In the West, Russia’s emphasis on such hybrid tactics came to be called “Gerasimov’s Doctrine.” Given his influence and success in the recent past, Gerasimov’s new ideas for the military should be vigilantly watched.
Also significant is that the new policy is less of a replacement of the 2013 doctrine than it is an upgrade of it. This means asymmetric and hybrid tactics remain firmly in the Russian military’s playbook, but added to them will now be greater emphasis on preparing to fight classic large-scale war. Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer discussed this “upgrade” in Novaya Gazeta on March 11, calling the new proposal “Gerasimov’s Doctrine 2.0.”
Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has often written about the significance of Russia’s increasing aggression, pointing out that among its main effects will be prompting the nations of Europe to unite militarily.
In 2004, after Russian President Vladimir Putin had manipulated an election in a way that revealed his dictatorial ambitions, Mr. Flurry wrote:
Russian elections have recently moved President Vladimir Putin much closer to becoming a dictator. This strikes intense fear in Europe. The Europeans still remember how violent Russia was in World War ii, and Russia is a close neighbor with massive piles of nuclear weapons. … The Russian election is triggering a fear that will hasten the uniting of the European Union. … The whole world should be alarmed.
Mr. Flurry based his forecast on Bible prophecy. He quoted Daniel 11:44-45: “But tidings out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him: therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy, and utterly to make away many. And he shall plant the tabernacles of his palace between the seas in the glorious holy mountain; yet he shall come to his end, and none shall help him.”
Mr. Flurry explained who the main nations are in this end-time prophecy:
The “tidings out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him”—united Europe. That means the frightening news comes from the northeast. Look on any world map and see who is located northeast of Europe—Russia and China, which will soon unite.
He continued explaining that this is a prophecy for the modern day, writing that “it’s all happening exactly as Daniel and other prophets prophesied thousands of years ago.”
In 2014, shortly after Russia had successfully used Gerasimov’s first doctrine to take over Crimea, Mr. Flurry wrote another landmark article called “The Crimean Crisis Is Reshaping Europe!” He discussed prophecies recorded in the books of Daniel and Revelation showing that a European power of 10 main leaders would rise up in the end time, and then he wrote:
The fear you see in Europe because of events in Crimea is going to cause 10 leaders in Europe to unite in a sudden and dramatic way—and in precise accordance with the Bible’s description of this European empire!
In the years since that was written, Russia has grown more provocative, and the Europeans have grown more fearful of its provocations. Gerasimov’s new military doctrine is set to further accelerate those trends.
These are sobering developments, but there is great cause for hope connected to them. Mr. Flurry explains this hope in his booklet The Prophesied ‘Prince of Russia’:
Mr. Putin’s warfare is going to lead directly into the Second Coming of Christ. … What we are seeing in Russia ultimately leads to the transition from man ruling man to God ruling man! And it is almost here! It is just a few short years away. … We have to realize that this is all good news because Jesus Christ is going to return to this Earth at the very end of the coming world war. … Jesus Christ is about to return—biblical prophecy makes that clear.
For insight into what the future holds for Russia and Europe, and to understand the hope that is at the core of these prophecies, read Mr. Flurry’s booklet The Prophesied ‘Prince of Russia.’