The Week in Review
Middle East
President Hosni Mubarak’s National Democratic Party won a landslide victory in Egypt’s April 8 municipal elections, gaining 92 percent of the vote. In reality, however, the National Democrats are not all that popular. Voter turnout, according to some estimates, was a puny 3 percent, with many polling stations remaining empty on voting day. Moreover, because the Egyptian government prevented most potential Muslim Brotherhood candidates from running, the MB boycotted the elections. Despite its sitting out these elections, the Muslim Brotherhood, a staunch Islamic conservative party, is the rising power in Egypt—it is this very fact that caused the ruling regime to crack down on it so hard in the run-up to the elections. According to a Muslim Brotherhood parliament member, 1,100 members of the organization had been arrested since early March. Meanwhile, public discontent with the present government and economic conditions is rapidly increasing and public opinion is on the Muslim Brotherhood’s side. Soon the MB’s patience will likely pay off and Egypt will turn to radical Islam.
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni has agreed on behalf of Israel to surrender Atarot Airport, in northern Jerusalem, to Palestinian control according to local Jerusalem newspaper Kol HaZman. The concession was made during ongoing secret talks between the Israeli government and Palestinian Authority negotiators. The transfer of the airport to PA control would surrender one of Israel’s strategic assets. The Olmert administration is trying to weaken its enemies in Gaza by making concessions to Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority.
But the Palestinian Authority remains a staunch enemy of Israel, despite the pseudo-moderate face it presents to the West. The PA’s doublespeak was once again exposed last week. “[A]fter we take Jerusalem, Israel’s ideology will collapse altogether, and then we will proceed with our own ideology, inshallah [if Allah wills], and we will throw them out of all of Palestine,” said Abbas Zaki, PA ambassador to Lebanon, on Lebanese television April 9. “The important thing is that in any [military] operation, Israel will pay a price. … I salute any operation that makes Israel pay a heavy price.” History and prophecy—not to mention common sense—guarantee that Israel’s policy of appeasing this organization will fail.
Iran commemorated its annual Army Day on Thursday with a display of its military power. “Iran is the most powerful and independent nation in the world,” boasted President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the military parade outside Tehran. “I am proud to announce today that the Iranian nation’s power is of an extent that no major power can dare jeopardize the security and interests of the Iranian nation.” In saying this, the Iranian president probably did not just have the nation’s conventional forces in mind. Its real offensive capability lies in its terrorist proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the former Badr Brigade in Iraq. Iran supports both Shiite and Sunni groups throughout the Middle East in its effort to extend its influence in the region. Stratfor sources report that Tehran is now using the Lebanese Hezbollah to train an Iraqi branch of Hezbollah. “Iran would rely on these forces to engage in an overt war with U.S. troops in Iraq should tensions between Washington and Tehran come to a head” (April 15). Iran is also developing a branch of Hezbollah in Kuwait. The tentacles of Iran’s terrorist network continue to grow.
Europe
Politics in Italy took a sudden jerk to the right this week. Silvio Berlusconi was elected prime minister of Italy on April 14. The snap election was called after the recent collapse of Prodi’s left-wing coalition government, brought about by the Vatican several months earlier. The coalition Berlusconi has formed could hardly be more different from Prodi’s. It is the most conservative that Italy has seen in years. The Communist and Green parties—which traditionally have had a strong presence in Italy—did not get even a single seat in the parliament. The parties that won out in the recent election were ultra-conservative parties like the post-fascist Alleanza Nazionale and the anti-immigration Northern Legion. Berlusconi has pledged to support an international moratorium on abortion and to close Italy’s borders to illegal immigrants—whom he calls “the army of evil.” These positions are sure to bring Italy more in line with the Vatican and the other right-wing governments in Europe.
Europe may have finally made a deal that would free it from dependency on Russian gas, it has emerged. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimukhammedov met with EU Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner on April 9 in the Turkmen capital of Ashgabat, where Turkmenistan agreed to have 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas available for export to Europe by 2009. If gas from Turkmenistan is assured, then investors will be more eager to back pipes traveling from Europe to Turkmenistan, such as the Trans-Caspian pipeline and the Nabucco. This development could be a major step forward for Europe.
This development will also bring Europe into greater conflict with Russia. Russia does not want Europe to have an independent source of gas, and it will push hard to prevent this from happening. Russia, Europe and China are all gaining in power, and are fighting to grab key strategic resources around the world. For more information on how this will play out, see our article “The Battleground” from the March 2006 Trumpet.
Asia
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to assume the office of prime minister of Russia on May 7—the day he passes the presidency on to his successor, Dmitry Medvedev. The Russian premiership is not the only office Putin will be assuming, however. On Tuesday, Putin announced that he would also be becoming the chairman of United Russia. In effect, by accepting the leadership of United Russia, Putin has given himself control over two thirds of the votes in the Russian legislature. This gives him the power to pass legislation, override presidential decisions, legally impeach politicians, and amend the constitution. Such power is reminiscent of how the general secretaries of the Communist Party used to run the Soviet Union. In Soviet times, it did not really matter who was president or prime minister: He who ruled the Communist Party ruled the Soviet Union. Putin’s latest political maneuver represents a change back to that system. He will rule United Russia—and United Russia will control the nation.
Even as Putin consolidates his totalitarian rule over Russia, Japan is trying to broker a peace deal with Russia that would legally end World War ii between those two nations. Japan and Russia never signed an official peace treaty after the Allies defeated Japan because of a territorial dispute over the Kuril Islands. That is why Japanese Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura met with his Russian counterpart on Monday—to start negotiations over the status of the Kuril Islands in hopes of boosting bilateral ties through the signing of a formal peace treaty.
The signing of a peace treaty between Japan and Russia would mark the beginning of a new era of Asian cooperation. As Japan starts to look on nations like Russia and China as allies, it will have fewer qualms about breaking its already-strained relationship with the United States.
Africa, South America
Brazil has discovered its largest oil reserves yet: 33 billion barrels in the offshore Carioca oil block. Exploration of this area has only just begun, and this is the third major find. This could put Brazil’s oil output on par with Saudi Arabia’s. As Europe rises as a superpower, Latin America is important as a supplier. This one find, if estimates are correct, holds twice as much oil as all of Europe combined.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez followed up on last week’s nationalization of cement and steel industries by sending the military to seize 30 sugar farms on April 11.
The post-election crisis in Zimbabwe continues without progress, and the opposition appears to be losing its will. Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai called for a protest on April 14, but fear of reprisals outweighed the people’s desire to oppose President Mugabe. Interestingly, some of the soldiers patrolling the streets, according to Zimbabwejournalists.com, are Chinese. China also caused a media frenzy this week by sending weapons to Zimbabwe. China has a long history of support for President Mugabe and a desire to secure resources in Africa.
Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to write off €2.8 billion in Libyan debt this week. In exchange, Libya awarded military and civilian contracts to Russian companies. Russia’s long-term goal is to secure energy resources. “According to geological surveys,” said Gazprom President Alexei Miller, “there could be double the resources we expected. Hence our great interest in the country. It looks like Libya could become an even more important player in the gas market.” The rush for resources throughout Africa continues.
Anglo-America
Pope Benedict xvi’s “Shepherd One” airplane landed at Andrews Air Force Base Tuesday, with the pope disembarking to a cheering crowd and honor guard, and greeted personally by President Bush and his wife and one of their daughters. After a flurry of billowing bishops’ costumes and ring-kissing, Benedict began his six-day visit, meeting the president in the Oval Office, parading through the capital, having his ring kissed again by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, addressing U.S. bishops at a shrine, and holding a pageantry-laden mass at Nationals Park with 46,000 in attendance. He then traveled to New York City to address the United Nations and to meet with Catholics there. Along with praising some parts of American history Wednesday, the pope “was sharply critical of American culture, saying its strongly individualist streak tempts Catholics ‘to pick and choose’ among church teachings,” in the words of the Washington Times. The pope, whose office has historically been deeply involved in international politics, also discussed the Israel-Palestinian conflict and the Iraq war with President Bush in the Oval Office. He also expressed shame over the 5,000 Catholic priests in America who sexually abused thousands of boys; he met with some victims, a move sure to boost his popularity among Americans.
Meanwhile in Washington, Democrat hopeful Barack Obama’s momentum has slowed slightly as he draws fire for saying privately that the reason some rural Pennsylvanians believe in religion or bear arms is because they are economically depressed and therefore “cling” to religion or guns. The Pennsylvania primary comes on Tuesday, a crucial contest that could make or break either Democrat candidate.
Former President Jimmy Carter this week traveled to the Middle East and, against White House, State Department, congressional and Israeli requests, met with leaders of the terrorist organization Hamas and laid a wreath at the grave of the late terrorist Yasser Arafat.