Israel Braces for Next Week’s Election

Good morning,

Israel is tense as it prepares to vote next Tuesday. The nation remains at war, military spending strains the budget, violence is flaring in the West Bank, and an inconclusive election result looks likely. A classified cia paper, described secondhand to an American outlet, reportedly warned of “civil conflict.”

• This morning, two Palestinian gunmen opened fire at a checkpoint near Hebron, wounding five Israelis before troops killed them. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Hebron cordoned off and told the army to prepare to close the entire West Bank.

Three years after the deadliest attack on Jews since the Holocaust, 68 percent of Jewish Israelis say October 7 is central to how they will vote, according to the Israel Democracy Institute. Yet remarkably, the split between the government’s supporters and opponents is essentially the same as it was before the massacre.

• A catastrophe that should have united the nation instead hardened each camp’s conviction that the other side is to blame.

This election could lead to paralysis. The final surveys, released before a legally mandated preelection poll blackout took effect today, show a dead heat.

• Mainstream outlets put Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc narrowly ahead, but pollsters with past Likud ties give Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition exactly 61 seats. No mainstream poll gives either side a majority.
• Most Jewish opposition parties say they won’t govern with Netanyahu or with the Arab parties. Even after the election results are official, expect weeks of deadlocked coalition talks, with a caretaker government at the helm.

The draft question has become explosive. Israel has lost about 1,000 soldiers since October 7, and most ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students still refuse the draft. The Supreme Court ordered them drafted, and military police are now arresting evaders.

• On October 5 in Modiin, hundreds of Haredi protesters overwhelmed police and kept a draft dodger from being taken. On October 8, protesters blocked Jerusalem’s Bar-Ilan Street and clashed with police over jailed yeshiva students. A similar clash in Jerusalem on Tuesday was at least the third this month.
• Netanyahu, who depends on Haredi parties to govern, opposes the arrests. Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett are campaigning on enforcing them.
• One young father told the Telegraph that forced conscription would mean “there will be an explosion.” Whoever wins Tuesday, a large share of the country will feel betrayed.

The mood is grim. Only 19 percent of Israelis are optimistic about their nation’s social cohesion. Seven in 10 fear for the integrity of the election itself.

A house divided: In June, President Isaac Herzog warned that past periods of Jewish sovereignty in the land were destroyed by internal hatred. History bears him out:

• Judah invited Assyria into its war with the northern kingdom of Israel (2 Kings 16:7), and within a generation, Assyria had swallowed Israel whole.
• In a.d. 70, rival Jewish factions fought each other inside Jerusalem’s walls even as Rome closed in.
• Jesus Christ stated plainly: “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation; and every city or house divided against itself shall not stand” (Matthew 12:25).

Richard Palmer discussed the issues pulling Israel apart in “Is Israel Returning to the Brink of Civil War?” Keep your eyes on Israel in the days leading to and following next Tuesday’s vote.

Canada Upgrades Relationship With Turkey

Canada and Turkey commenced their “strategic partnership” yesterday, signing agreements to deepen partnership on defense, energy, supply chains and increased airplane travel. This is part of a broader Canadian strategy to replace its economic and military alliance with the United States.

• It resulted from Prime Minister Mark Carney’s two-day visit to Turkey, which concludes today, the first official bilateral visit from a Canadian government head.
• Besides the U.S., Canada’s other strategic partnerships include Australia, Germany and Sweden.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said the two nations want to more than triple their trade to $10 billion annually, although he didn’t specify how soon.

• “Our objectives are clear: more trade between businesses to build more prosperity between our peoples,” Carney said, remarking that this partnership will continue to grow for generations.

A big reason no Canadian head of government had visited Turkey for a bilateral visit is the nation’s poor human rights record. But for Carney, highlighting the pivot away from the U.S. is more important than standing for human rights.

• Carney has made several speeches advocating for human rights by establishing a new world order that ends American dominance.
• Canada’s desperation to separate from the U.S. is leading it to partner with nations that do not share its fundamental values.

Ultimately, Canada is trusting in alliances for its prosperity and protection rather than God. This will have disastrous consequences.

Bible prophecy warns that Canada’s trust in Turkey is misplaced. The book of Obadiah shows that Turkey will betray Canada, along with the United States and other descendants of ancient Israel.

Germany Still Wants Montenegro

At a summit yesterday in Montenegro, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said it “is realistic” for the Balkan nation to join the European Union as early as 2028 and encouraged the Montenegrin government to continue forward momentum toward that goal.

• Montenegrin President Milojko Spajić held the Berlin Process Leaders’ Summit in the town of Miločer in part to discuss his nation joining the EU.

This timetable is extremely optimistic. Attaining EU membership is notoriously slow. Many in the EU have pushed for Ukraine to become a member to protect it from Russia, yet the earliest it would join would be half a decade. Turkey has officially been a candidate since 1999 and is still nowhere near joining. Analysts have anticipated Montenegro joining in the 2030s.

• Croatia, which, as a current EU member, has veto power over new membership, has threatened to derail Montenegro’s process due to unsettled issues from the 1990s Yugoslav War.

Montenegro gained independence from Yugoslavia in 2006 and applied for EU membership in 2008. It currently has settled 21 of 33 “chapters,” which are government policies the EU requires a nation to institute to align with the rest of the bloc.

Yugoslavia fell into war and broke apart in large part because of meddling by Germany and the Vatican. As Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry writes in his free booklet Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans, Germany feared a united Yugoslavia would prevent it from dominating Europe, and it wanted strategic control over the Adriatic Sea.

• Montenegro controls an important coastline near the Adriatic’s entry point to the Mediterranean Sea.
• Germany’s preferential treatment of Montenegro’s EU membership shows it is seeking to consolidate control in this region and project economic and military power into the Adriatic.

The struggle for the Balkans and the Adriatic isn’t over. Read Germany’s Conquest of the Balkans to understand the real power behind that struggle and Germany’s greater strategic ambition.

IN OTHER NEWS

Romania blames Russia for drone attack on cargo vessel: Romanian President Nicușor Dan said Russia was behind this morning’s drone strike on a cargo ship just beyond Romania’s territorial waters. The strike sank the vessel, after which rescue teams pulled nine crewmen to safety, while three remain unaccounted for and one was found dead. The strike marks at least the seventh drone attack on commercial vessels in waters off nato member states bordering the Black Sea in recent weeks, resulting in more than 30 crewmen being killed or reported missing. Although responsibility for the strikes has not been formally established, they occurred in areas where Russia operates and fit a broader pattern of Russian efforts to undermine nato.