Russia’s Shadow War on Europe’s Defense Industry

Russian military intelligence agents are recruiting local gang members across Europe to attack weapons factories that contribute to Ukraine’s defenses, the Telegraph reported on August 23.

Rather than sending operatives from Russia’s gru military intelligence agency into European countries to carry out the attacks, the Kremlin uses local criminal groups as proxies. Latvian security chief Normunds Mežviets said, “In our experience, we don’t see officers of the gru traveling here physically to our country. No, they stay in Russia where it’s safe. They’re not taking any risks for their own operational and physical security.”

Russian intelligence officers use messaging apps like Telegram to recruit members of right-wing extremist groups in various European nations, many of which espouse pro-Russia, pro-Putin views. The Russians pay these individuals in cryptocurrency and instruct them to function only as intermediaries. The intermediaries then pass some of the Russian cryptocurrency to other local criminals as payment for carrying out arson and sabotage. In this system, the actual perpetrators generally don’t know who is ultimately behind the operation.

This method is designed to give Moscow what intelligence officials call “plausible deniability.”

The latest suspected attack took place in Estonia on August 15. Arsonists set ablaze a facility operated by Milrem Robotics, a major supplier of unmanned ground vehicles to Ukraine. Three Latvian nationals were later detained on suspicion of involvement; officials are investigating whether they were acting on behalf of Russia.

Earlier this month, explosions struck weapons facilities in Italy and Bulgaria, both of which produce ammunition for Ukraine. An August 10 massive blast hit an emco ammunition facility near Belitsa, Bulgaria, which makes 155mm artillery shells for Ukraine. Three days later, a similar explosion rocked a knds ammunition plant in Colleferro, Italy.

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On March 20, a fire nearly destroyed a defense factory in Pardubice, Czech Republic, that produced drones and thermal-imaging equipment for Ukraine. Four suspects were later detained as investigators examined a possible Russian connection.

In September 2024, saboteurs twice attempted to set fire to a Lithuanian facility producing radio-frequency scanners for Ukraine’s military.

Testing and Dividing NATO

This shadowy Russian campaign is designed to not only weaken companies that help Ukraine defend itself from Russia’s attacks but also make European governments think twice about continuing their support for Ukraine.

It also shows the Kremlin how far it can push Europe. The Telegraph wrote: “With each attack that goes unpunished, the Russians are gathering their own useful intelligence on just how far they can push nato’s boundaries.” Every time an attack is met with little more than European finger-wagging, Russia learns it can go a little further next time. Over time, these incremental provocations can become increasingly bold—and increasingly dangerous.

The Kremlin also understands that European nations geographically nearer to Russia are inclined to react to such acts of hybrid warfare with greater urgency than countries further west. While officials in Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania openly raise the specter of Russian masterminding acts of sabotage, those in Italy have been cautious about naming Russia.

That caution, driven in some measure by fear of escalation, is part of what the Russians are exploiting. They have an interest in keeping nato nations divided over the nature and severity of the threat, especially between its eastern members, which feel Russia’s pressure most acutely, and countries farther west that may be more reluctant to risk openly confronting Russia. The more divided nato is over the source of the attacks, the harder it becomes to mount a unified response.

This is the essence of Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare. With cyberattacks, assassination plots and this campaign to sabotage weapons producers, Russia is antagonizing and putting pressure on its enemies while making it difficult for them to agree on how—and whether—to retaliate.

There is also another side to this story.

‘Reshaping Europe’

As Europeans’ fear of Russian aggression intensifies, these nations are building up their own military capabilities. The war in Ukraine has already transformed European attitudes toward defense spending and military cooperation, dramatically accelerating both.

Germany has dramatically increased its military spending. Poland is building one of Europe’s largest armies. Finland and Sweden abandoned decades of military neutrality to join nato. European nations are increasingly integrating their armed forces and defense industries.

And with these furtive acts of sabotage, Russia is giving the nations of Europe yet another reason to conclude that they need to be better able to defend themselves.

That is significant in light of Bible prophecy.

Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has cautioned for years that Russian belligerence and dictatorialism would frighten the peoples of Europe and accelerate their unification and militarization. For more than two decades, he has issued this Bible-based forecast. It is now well underway, not just in Eastern Europe but across the whole Continent.

As the war continues to move closer and rage more violently, we should expect the Europeans to invest even more in firepower and military preparedness. The Scriptures reveal that the military power now being assembled will one day be unleashed upon the world with breathtaking—and devastating—force.

To understand, read Mr. Flurry’s article “Russia’s War on Ukraine Is Reshaping Europe.”