Who Is Leading Iran?

The United States is currently in peace negotiations with Iran. But who exactly is the U.S. negotiating with? The supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on February 28 at the start of the war. Since then, who is running the country hasn’t been clear, though it is becoming clearer.

Although the evidence is fragmentary and at times unable to be confirmed, Iran’s real power center increasingly appears to be the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (irgc). The irgc’s takeover could factor into fulfilling a linchpin Bible prophecy.

There are several signs that the irgc is running the country.

Supremely Ill

After Khamenei’s death, the Assembly of Experts gathered from March 3 to 8 to elect a new supreme leader. They chose the late ayatollah’s son Mojtaba Khamenei. Anecdotal reporting suggests Ali Khamenei didn’t believe his son to be fit for office. Yet sources speaking to dissident groups like IranWire and Iran International claim the irgc pressured the Assembly to choose Mojtaba. One “informed source” told IranWire that the pressure “was so intense that the irgc Intelligence Organization forced several dissenting members of the Assembly of Experts into this choice by threatening them and their family members.”

Mojtaba Khamenei previously had strong connections with the irgc, but this probably wasn’t the deciding reason for its support. The junior Khamenei may not be running the country much at all—because he is hospitalized.

The Times of London, citing a diplomatic memo, reported April 6 that Mojtaba Khamenei “is unconscious and being treated for a ‘severe’ medical condition” in the city of Qom. The Times, quoting the memo, claimed Khamenei is “unable to be involved in any decision-making by the regime.”

An April 23 report in the New York Times suggests the new supreme leader isn’t completely incapacitated but still not in a good state. “Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded,” the article states, “he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health. One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak … eventually, he will need plastic surgery.”

Khamenei’s condition would have been known before the Assembly of Experts started proceedings for choosing a new supreme leader. The most probable reason the irgc pressured the Assembly to choose an incapacitated man is because a healthy man would be able to do his job.

The elder Khamenei was such a towering figure that the irgc, nor any other branch of the government, could do nothing without his approval. According to Abdolreza Davari, an Iranian politician who spoke to the New York Times, “Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board.” Davari specified: “He relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members, and they collectively make all the decisions. The generals are the board members.”

“The newly minted supreme leader has followed along,” the New York Times wrote, “rarely if ever objecting to the generals.” This is apparently “partly because he was new to the leadership role. He lacks the political stature and religious clout that made his father such a singular force.”

Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group commented: “Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them.”

Such influence would have effects on the ground. These effects are apparent.

Open and Shut

Last Friday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that “the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open.” The next day, Iran started firing on shipping again. “U.S. officials” speaking to Axios claimed this shows the limits the civilian government has in controlling the military.

“We thought they were negotiating with the right people … but what happened is the Iranian team went back and the irgc and those kinds of people said, ‘Oh, no, no. You don’t speak for us,’” a “senior administration official” told Axios. A second government figure commented: “We aren’t sure who’s in charge and neither do they. That’s going to have [to] work itself out.”

This is the biggest example, but it’s not the only one. Reports suggest Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has complained that the irgc is making decisions that should have been his. The military also apparently canceled the latest round of negotiations after it heard Araghchi offered to compromise in areas they didn’t approve. Araghchi should be accountable to Pezeshkian, not the military.

In short, the irgc and its leader, Ahmad Vahidi, hold the most power in Iran right now. They apparently have enough power to prop up a man in a coma as “supreme” leader. To paraphrase one colleague about what this irgc takeover means: “When Vladimir Putin, a former kgb agent, became Russia’s leader, the kgb went from being ‘a state within a state’ to becoming the state itself. The same has now happened to Iran.”

This is especially interesting in light of a prophecy in the biblical book of Daniel.

A Change in Direction?

Daniel 11:40, dated to “the time of the end,” reveals the event that will lead to the greatest suffering man has ever known (see Daniel 12:1). It reads: “And at the time of the end shall the king of the south push at him: and the king of the north shall come against him like a whirlwind, with chariots, and with horsemen, and with many ships; and he shall enter into the countries, and shall overflow and pass over.”

This speaks of a massive clash between two end-time power blocs. The combat theater is the Middle East. Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry, in his free booklet The King of the South, identifies “the king of the south” as Iran and its Islamist allies, while “the king of the north” is united Europe.

Verses 42-43 show the king of the south will command a large proxy army, including countries such as Egypt, Libya and Ethiopia. Iran has built its power by sponsoring proxy forces throughout the Middle East. Africa has not been the priority. Iran’s main enemies to this point have also been the U.S. and Israel—not Europe.

Ali Khamenei ruled Iran for decades. He is responsible for the nation’s current geopolitical role. Under him, Iran has been pushy, aggressive and imperialistic—but not in the exact direction Daniel 11 has indicated it would follow. Because of this, the Trumpet has speculated of a change in Iran’s leadership. After the U.S. and Israel struck Iran’s nuclear program last summer, Trumpet managing editor Joel Hilliker commented: “If the 86-year-old Khamenei does lose power, we can expect his successor to walk in his footsteps. In fact, it may require a fresh face to redirect and to advance Iran’s cause in the way prophecy outlines.”

The irgc is an institution whose missions are to protect the Islamic Revolution at home and to spread it abroad. Its purpose is to spread the revolution to engulf new territories and provoke conflicts with its neighbors.

Once the current conflict calms down, whoever is the individual leader of Iran, the irgc will probably still hold heavy sway over the country’s direction. The irgc’s history indicates this is the direction the Bible forecasts Iran will go down—until somebody forcibly stops it.

To learn more, request a free copy of The King of the South.