Has Post-Maduro Venezuela Changed?

After the United States raided Venezuela and captured its dictator, Nicolás Maduro, President Donald Trump celebrated regime change. He tried the same tactics in Iran, decapitating rather than capturing the leadership. But how effective is this strategy? As Trump tries to negotiate peace with the mullahs, let’s go back to Venezuela and see how his strategy is working.

Maduro’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, now leads the country. Under her, the situation for the U.S. has somewhat improved for the short term. But Venezuela’s domestic situation has barely changed. The U.S. may be setting itself up for a worse situation than it had before.

The Good

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Yet with socialist mismanagement under Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, Venezuela has been hemorrhaging refugees who have made their way to the U.S. Venezuela’s socialist policies nationalized the oil industry, effectively confiscating U.S. oil infrastructure in Venezuela without compensation.

Venezuela has supported America’s adversaries: It was an energy lifeline for Cuba, purchased weapons from Russia and China, and allowed Hezbollah to use it as a base to smuggle drugs. All of this has placed Venezuela under heavy international sanctions.

President Trump’s capture of Maduro was a warning to all who came after, and Rodríguez listened. Venezuela all but halted oil shipments to Cuba, sending that regime into an existential crisis. Venezuelan oil is flowing to American refineries, and sanctions have been dropped. Venezuela’s economy is reintegrating into the global system, and Rodríguez has announced the release of political refugees.

Does this mean everything is rosy now in South America?

The Bad

Only two major factors changed in Venezuela’s political system: Maduro himself is gone, and the Russo-Chinese defense systems protecting him proved useless. Maduro’s political apparatus remains entrenched. Rodríguez was Maduro’s second-in-command, so Venezuela is still ruled by a socialist dictatorship. Maduro blatantly rigged Venezuela’s last elections, and no new elections have been scheduled. The opposition—the leader of which, María Corina Machado, won last year’s Nobel Peace Prize—is still unwelcome. And there are reasons to believe some of Rodríguez’s reforms are more style than substance.

One big example of this is the release of political prisoners. There are legitimate questions about how extensive the mass pardons actually are. Rodríguez claimed on January 23 that the government released 626 people as part of its reform process. Human rights group Foro Penal could confirm only 154 releases from January 8 to that point. On March 16, United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said that of the over 7,700 prisoners the Venezuelan government claimed to have released, the UN could confirm only 950 of them. Many are still under restrictions. Some, like opposition politician Juan Pablo Guanipa, were rearrested soon after release—in Guanipa’s case, two days after.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one demographic of political prisoners is also being ignored: military officers accused of disloyalty. As of April 8, “about 187 former servicemen, many of them senior officers, are still behind bars.” Carlos David Guillén, an ex-political prisoner who served in Venezuela’s armed forces, told the Wall Street Journal: “For now, they’re not going to get out. They represent the moral backbone of the armed forces. They could play a leading role in the armed forces. That’s something the government can’t allow.”

And the legal infrastructure that incarcerated these people is still in place. After leading a fact-finding mission in March, Türk claimed evidence of 87 new political detainees since Maduro’s ouster. Machado, the main opposition leader, is still under investigation, and the Venezuelan government has suggested she may be arrested if she sets foot on Venezuelan soil. Alfredo Romero of Foro Penal claimed on March 12 that “there is still a repressive system, a justice system that is used to persecute.”

Even for the average Venezuelan, the living situation hasn’t changed much. Under U.S. pressure, Rodríguez has opened Venezuela up for more private and foreign investment. Inflation is still rampant, and many household necessities, such as food, are still abnormally expensive. Public workers began protesting the economy in Caracas last month and are still on the street. The U.S., in response, began lessening sanctions on Venezuelan banks, including the Central Bank of Venezuela. “This action supports [President Trump’s] objective to revitalize the Venezuelan economy by reintegrating Venezuelan citizens into the U.S.-led global financial system,” an anonymous U.S. official told Axios.

It is surreal to see the U.S. intervene to protect a far-left regime from public discontent. President Trump is changing from the Venezuelan regime’s enemy to its enabler.

The Ugly

The U.S. has received tangible benefits from Maduro’s removal. Full regime change was probably never the goal, but it is jarring to see a country like Venezuela, which was recently an American enemy, suddenly treated with such respect. Hugo Chávez’s revolution was based on anti-Americanism—opposing America’s place in the world and the economic system it helped introduce. This is the mindset of Venezuela’s socialist regime, with or without Maduro.

Venezuela’s government hasn’t repented of its abuses of power. It hasn’t repented of making life for the average Venezuelan a nightmare. There is no love for America or the American way of life in Caracas. The main reason Venezuela has made these changes is fear.

What happens when Venezuela’s government stops fearing the U.S.?

President Trump tried applying the same model of “shock-and-awe followed by negotiations” with Iran. Iran has resisted. It looks like Iran could emerge from the current war successfully defiant. Other countries, such as Russia, have defied the U.S. at every turn with success.

Now Venezuela has more than ideological opposition to the U.S. It has an old score to settle. If the government believes it can hurt the U.S. and come out stronger, it will.

The Cause

The U.S. has had very little success with most of its recent foreign-policy endeavors. This is because of a curse in Leviticus 26:19-20 where God promised His people He would “break the pride of your power” and “your strength shall be spent in vain” if they disobeyed His law. This promise was made to ancient Israel, but it also applies to modern America. (Herbert W. Armstrong’s book The United States and Britain in Prophecy explains. Request your free copy.)

The Maduro raid has been a big exception. A prophecy in 2 Kings 14 speaks of modern-day Israel being temporarily saved from “bitter affliction” by a strong leader. Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry explains this in Chapter 3 of his free book America Under Attack.

God sent America temporary salvation despite our people’s sins. God wants to make that salvation permanent, but that depends on the government and people using the respite to change their ways and turn to God.

In the aftermath of the Maduro raid, the Trumpet asked what it would mean for America. The answer: “We don’t know—and that’s the point.”

We continued:

Regime change in Venezuela is an opportunity for tremendous blessings for America. At the same time, it could turn out to be a stepping-stone to America’s collapse. What determines this is not policy efficacy or geopolitical maneuvering. The deciding factor will be whether America and its leadership let these events lead them to repentance toward the God of the Bible.

America is experiencing a reprieve and a resurgence. But unless the nation uses that to humble itself, turn to God, repent and obey, the downhill slide will resume—and accelerate.

Other prophecies show that, if it doesn’t repent, America will be economically besieged by a foreign power using a hostile Latin America. Venezuela could play a key part in that. The government is still anti-America. It now has a reason to undermine American power in the region. All it needs is foreign help.

To learn more, read “What Is the Future of Venezuela?”