Iran’s Illusory ‘Regime Change’

Good morning!

Last weekend, President Trump said the Iran war has already achieved “regime change” (in fact, two of them), and the new government is “much more reasonable.”

[BRIEF]

• “We’ve had regime change,” he told reporters on Air Force One. “The one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead. The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people than anybody’s dealt with before. … So I would consider that regime change.”

In his telling, the war is victory, victory, victory all around. Time to wind things down; mission complete.

These words must dishearten Iranians still yearning for actual regime change. The Islamic Republic’s core system—the theocratic clerical framework, political institutions and especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as its institutional backbone—remains fully intact and operational.

• Iran’s clerical establishment is not a few men who can be “decimated” by assassinations. The Assembly of Experts, which selects the supreme leader, has 88 members, all senior clerics. The 12-man Guardian Council continues to approve laws and vet all candidates for office. Broader clerical influence runs through religious seminaries and the judiciary. Thousands of mid- and high-ranking clerics are embedded across many institutions. The system has built-in succession mechanisms to survive decapitation.
• The broader government—presidency, parliament, Expediency Council and more—still functions under the 1979 constitution. Elections and appointments remain filtered through the same clerical and irgc-aligned vetting process. There has been no fundamental change in laws, power-sharing rules or ideology.
• The irgc has assumed more and more power in Iran over the decades. It is not just a military force; it is a parallel state that controls security and internal repression, large swaths of the economy, foreign policy via the Quds Force and proxies, and politics. It has 150,000-plus active personnel, and its Basij paramilitary can activate more than 600,000 more ideologically committed men trained for exactly this kind of survival scenario. Analysis shows that since Khamenei’s death, the irgc has further consolidated control. What little authority President Masoud Pezeshkian had is now being further restricted by irgc leaders.

To speak of “regime change” given these realities is coldhearted and insulting.

My article “Real Hope for Iran’s Oppressed” describes life under this radical regime: repressive, impoverished, cruel. Let me share one paragraph about a practice under the regime’s author, Ayatollah Khomeini:

French-Iranian sociologist Azadeh Kian described how Khomeini’s regime treated young women it had arrested for political offenses; her shocking charge was later confirmed by a British parliamentary report. The clerics believed that if a young woman was a virgin when she was executed, she would go to heaven. Their solution? Rape her, then execute her. Kian explained, “A temporary marriage was organized and a dowry in the form of sweets sent to the girl’s family.”

I thought more about this horrific example after publishing the article. What does this say about the god these religious leaders claim to serve? This monstrous deity would admit a young woman to paradise despite political dissent he condemned her to death for—yet deny her that eternal reward for the “sin” of being raped by her executioners. Such perverse, sadistic “divine justice” beggars belief.

I look forward to these people coming to know the true God. The God who reveals Himself in the Bible as pure love and who balances judgment with abundant mercy to achieve perfect justice.

• Today is the first day of the Feast of Unleavened Bread, a sacred festival celebrating God delivering Israel from Egyptian slavery. That was actual regime change, forcibly taking down a truly oppressive dictatorship.

As my article explains, God promises ultimately to right all this world’s injustices, to supplant all this world’s evil regimes and replace them with divine governance that will create freedom, prosperity and flourishing for all peoples worldwide.

U.A.E. to Join Iran War?

The United Arab Emirates is planning to join the war against Iran, the Wall Street Journal reported April 1. Arab officials say the U.A.E. is waiting for a United Nations resolution permitting it to “open the Strait of Hormuz by force,” it reported.

As European nations rule out helping open the Strait of Hormuz, the U.A.E. apparently considers Iran’s terrorist attacks on civilian ships to be an existential threat to its economy.

• Such a resolution would be unlikely to pass, since Russia and China often side with Iran and have Security Council veto authority. However, Iran has reneged on its pledge not to attack commercial traffic from places like China.

U.S. exit? The Wall Street Journal also cited U.S. administration officials as saying that President Donald Trump told aides he is “willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.”

• Trump is nearing the four-to-six-week deadline he articulated for concluding the war: It appears he plans to stick to that deadline. Congress would have to authorize any use of military force beyond 60 days.
• He said on March 23 that he is open to “jointly” controlling the Strait of Hormuz between “me and the ayatollah.”

America seems ready to wind the war down. Israel, as much as it would like to incapacitate Iran permanently, can’t do much without American support. It appears to accept that Iran’s regime will remain in place.

This makes it all the more remarkable that the U.A.E. seems ready to keep the fight going.

• The Associated Press reported March 31 that Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are pressuring President Trump to continue the war until Iran’s ability to attack them is fully neutered.

Prophetic implications: Psalm 83 records an alliance of Middle Eastern nations formed “that the name of Israel may be no more in remembrance” (verse 4). History records no such alliance, which is why Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry has called it a prophecy for today. Corresponding the listed nations with their descendants, he links the “Ishmaelites” of verse 6 with today’s Gulf Arab states.

In The King of the South, he states that this alliance will form to counter the threat from Iran and its proxies. The Gulf Arabs clearly see the threat from Iran. To understand how events in this theater of conflict are about to dramatically change, read the prophecies in your own Bible, guided by The King of the South.

Central Banks Sell U.S. Treasury Bonds During Iran War

Foreign central banks have sold some of their U.S. treasury bonds in the four weeks since the U.S. and Israel began their military campaign against Iran. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the amount of U.S. treasuries it held in custody for foreign governments and central banks has dropped by $82 billion since February 25 to a 14-year low of $2.7 trillion.

This drop shows how Iran’s attacks on civilian cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting rise in oil prices have damaged the economies of several countries. Higher oil costs have also made the U.S. dollar stronger, another incentive for countries to sell treasuries to get cash or support their own currencies.

Crucial rate: These sales have helped push two-year and 10-year U.S. treasuries up to their highest interest rates since 2024, which means that it costs the U.S. government more to borrow money.

$40,000,000,000,000: This is a growing problem for the U.S. government. With the national debt now at nearly $40 trillion, the federal government already spends roughly one fifth of all the money it collects in taxes just on debt interest payments, and higher rates on treasuries only exacerbate the problem.

Much of the dollar’s value derives from the fact that most international oil sales are priced in U.S. dollars. This means that governments and businesses around the globe must hold large amounts of dollars to buy oil, which keeps demand for the dollar high.

This “petrodollar” system has been in place for more than 50 years.

After President Richard Nixon ended the dollar’s last remaining link to gold in 1971, his administration convinced leading oil-producer Saudi Arabia to price and sell its oil in U.S. dollars and invest the extra money in U.S. treasuries and other assets, in return for U.S. military protection. Other major oil exporters soon followed, creating a system that has supported strong demand for the dollar ever since.

Now, White House aides are reporting that since a mission to pry open Hormuz would push the conflict beyond President Trump’s timeline of four to six weeks, he’s willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

Economic sea change? Such statements have thrown U.S. security guarantees into question. This could accelerate efforts by other countries to move away from dollar-based oil trade, which would weaken one of the dollar’s main supports.

The late Herbert W. Armstrong believed a major financial crisis in America would serve as a catalyst for the nations of Europe to unite into a pan-European superpower. In a July 22, 1984, letter, he warned that a massive banking crisis in America “could suddenly result in triggering European nations to unite as a new world power larger than either the Soviet Union or the U.S.”

Events in the Middle East and the resulting financial pressures are raising fresh questions about the stability of the global financial system in general and the future of the U.S. dollar in particular.

IN OTHER NEWS

Japan militarizing islands near Taiwan: The Wall Street Journal reported Monday that Japan is continuing to fortify islands in the East China Sea. A decade ago, the string of islands stretching from southwest Japan to the east coast of Taiwan was not significantly militarized, with the notable exception of Okinawa. But in the time since, the Japanese have grown more fearful of China’s military belligerence and have installed radar systems, air-defense systems, antiship missile units, ammunition depots and thousands of troops. “The Chinese military is building up, and they’re getting aircraft carriers, increasing the number of jet fighters, increasing the number of submarines,” the Journal quoted former Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono as saying. “We should have been going much faster, but we lagged behind.” Tensions between Japan and China are worsening, prompting these economic and military giants to amass remarkable firepower. Yet biblical prophecy shows that they will soon unite under Russian leadership and use that firepower in the most devastating war in human history.

Germany secures critical minerals: On Tuesday, Germany’s Economic Ministry announced a $60 million investment in the Australian rare earth mining project Arafura Rare Earths to secure German access to critical materials. This follows the recent signing of the EU-Australia Free Trade Agreement. By allowing this investment, Australians are unwittingly supplying their future conqueror.

Freedom decaying in Europe: Democracy is still declining in Europe, according to the 2026 Liberties Rule of Law Report released on Monday. The Civil Liberties Union of Europe analyzed rule of law, media freedom, corruption and other factors and found Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia to have regressed compared to last year. Ten other European Union members, including the Netherlands, Poland and Spain, made no progress. The ongoing erosion of individual freedom in Europe is leading to the fulfillment of Bible prophecies of an oncoming leader who will forge the Continent into a dictatorial superpower.

Alberta separatists claim enough signatures to trigger independence referendum: Organizers with Stay Free Alberta say they have collected more than the required 177,732 signatures needed under Alberta’s Citizen Initiative Act to force a referendum on whether the province should separate from Canada. The Alberta Prosperity Project announced on Tuesday that the threshold was met well ahead of the May 2 deadline. Signatures must still be verified by Elections Alberta. If validated, October 2026 ballots for national elections could include the question “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” Most analysts believe Alberta has virtually no chance of seceding this year; nevertheless, the strength of the movement highlights the deep societal and political divisions within Canada.