Will the Iran Strikes Unite Russia and China?

According to an adage explaining mathematics’ chaos theory, a seemingly innocent event like a butterfly flapping its wings could cause something as destructive as a hurricane halfway around the world. Applying this simile to the recent war in the Middle East, we could call the Israeli-American strikes on Iran our “butterfly.” This butterfly is spurring the creation of a super-alliance between Russia and China.

The Wall Street Journal, citing “people close to Beijing’s decision-making,” claims China is considering giving the go-ahead for a stalled Russian natural gas pipeline. Russian President Vladimir Putin first proposed the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project to China in 2022, but the project never got off the ground. China reportedly was asking for too low a price to suggest serious interest.

As of 2023, China imports about a quarter of its energy needs, according to the International Energy Agency. In total volume, it is by far the world’s largest energy importer. About 30 percent of China’s natural gas comes from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which depends on Iran allowing trade through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Indian Ocean. Iran exports over 90 percent of its oil to China, the only major economy willing to defy American sanctions.

After America’s recent strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, Iran’s Parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn’t have the final say on decisions like this, and the move may be more symbolic than substantive, but it was enough to make China worry.

The Wall Street Journal wrote that Mideast developments are potentially “jump-starting” Power of Siberia 2. “The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project has been mired in disagreements over pricing and ownership terms,” the Journal’s sources claimed, “as well as Chinese concerns about relying too heavily on Russia for its energy supplies. But the recent war in the Middle East has given Beijing reason to reconsider the reliability of the oil and natural gas it gets from the region … even as a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran takes hold.”

There are other signs China may be drawing closer to Russia.

Washington’s Signal

On Tuesday, United States President Donald Trump posted on social media: “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the U.S. also. It was my great honor to make this happen!”

Some have interpreted this to mean the U.S. plans to lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The White House has denied this. But for years, Trump has singled out China as America’s primary economic competitor. Since regaining office, he has put sanctions on Chinese entities purchasing Iranian oil.

It would then be strange for him to encourage China to purchase Iranian oil—unless he sees that Russia would be China’s natural pivot to purchase energy from. Some analysts speculate that one of the Trump administration’s major goals is to split up Russia and China so they don’t gang up on the U.S.

Russia is the world’s second-largest natural gas producer and third-largest oil producer. China shares a land border with Russia, so imports from Russia don’t come with the risks of maritime shipping.

So why doesn’t China have more energy trade with Russia? Despite their flowery rhetoric of unbreakable unity, Russia and China view each other as potential enemies. Both are nuclear-armed world powers openly trying to expand their borders. China doesn’t want to give Russia inordinate leverage by depending on its fossil fuels to keep the Chinese economy functioning.

But as the world’s biggest energy importer, China is dependent on stability and predictability in the energy trade. Israel and Iran are not declaring peace anytime soon. The Middle East will remain the world’s powder keg. China’s leadership may feel they must find a more reliable energy source, which may necessitate becoming more dependent on Russia.

The Trumpet has expected this for years because of Bible prophecy.

Russia and China in Prophecy

The Bible prophesies of an end-time catastrophe the Prophet Daniel called “a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time” (Daniel 12:1). This crisis will be caused by a clash between two power blocs: a “king of the north” and a “king of the south” (Daniel 11:40). Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry identifies the king of the north as a united Europe and the king of the south as a radical Islamist bloc led by Iran (see here for more information).

Europe and Iran won’t be the only players in this world war.

Daniel records Europe’s next move after defeating the king of the south: “But tidings out of the east and out of the north shall trouble him: therefore he shall go forth with great fury to destroy, and utterly to make away many” (verse 44). Strong’s Concordance defines the word “trouble” as “to tremble inwardly” and “alarmed or agitated.” A military power to the northeast will make Europe abnormally afraid.

The Apostle John called this power “the kings of the east” (Revelation 16:12). He wrote that this power would field a 200 million-man army (Revelation 9:16). Only the populous countries of Asia could field such a massive army.

The Prophet Ezekiel wrote more details about these kings. “Now the word of the Lord came to me, saying, ‘Son of man, set your face against Gog, the land of Magog, the prince of Rosh, Meshech, and Tubal, and prophesy against him” (Ezekiel 38:1-2; New King James Version).

As Mr. Flurry explains in his free booklet The Prophesied ‘Prince of Russia,’ Meshech, Tubal and Rosh are names for the ancestral peoples of modern Russia. Magog is an ancestral people of modern China.

“This ‘prince’ is clearly a Russian leader,” we wrote in the April 2020 Trumpet issue. “The verse [Ezekiel 38:2] says ‘the land of Magog,’ which includes modern China, will also be a key part of the power bloc. But the wording makes clear that it will be not a Chinese leader but a Russian one that is the primary king, or prince, over this kings of the east conglomerate.”

Many analysts can see Russia and China are creating a partnership to counter the West. But looking at the current facts on the ground, especially the sheer difference in size of economies, most analysts see China as the leader. According to this view, Russia is a junior partner at most; at least, it is a soon-to-be vassal state.

But Bible prophecy is clear that these roles will soon reverse. No matter the size of China’s economy, it can’t function without massive fossil fuel imports. Chaos in the Middle East could lead China to become dependent on Russian oil and gas—making Russia “prince” over China. President Trump’s actions in Iran could help these kings of the east unite as the Bible describes.

To learn more, request a free copy of Russia and China in Prophecy.