Getting rid of Saddam Hussein was the hard part. The United States kindly took care of that. Getting a Shiite-dominated government to replace Saddam should be the easy part. After all, democratic elections in a country where almost two thirds of the population is Shiite should guarantee a Shiite-controlled government.
Still, Iran isn’t satisfied to just sit back and assume it’s a done deal. It is not taking any chances. Too much is at stake.
This much was recently acknowledged by Iraq’s current non-Shiite leadership and by Jordan. On Dec. 7, 2004, the leaders of Iraq and Jordan warned that “Iran is trying to influence the Iraqi elections scheduled for January 30 to create an Islamic government that would dramatically shift the geopolitical balance between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in the Middle East” (Washington Post, Dec. 8, 2004; emphasis mine). Iran is going about this task in several ways—and in perfect conformity with its tactics over recent years.
The stunning thing is its brazenness. Iran is obviously feeling pretty confident of its position in the region—and even of its bargaining power with the rest of the world. There has been no shortage of publicity about Tehran’s blatant manipulation of world powers with regard to its nuclear weapons program. Closer to home, Iran’s neighbors are getting edgy over the alarming self-assurance Tehran is displaying. Stratfor related how “Egypt—and much of the Sunni Arab Middle East—is uncomfortable with the rather rapid emergence of Iran as a regional power” (Dec. 9, 2004). Iran’s emergence from the geopolitical background (which has been prophesied for years by this magazine, we might add) “is a change in the status quo that Cairo is not prepared for. At least not yet” (ibid.).
The whole world, it seems, recognizes that Iran is shaping a new Middle East to its liking.
Its current project is the creation of an Iran-friendly Iraqi government—by orchestrating an electoral win for the Shiites in Iraq’s first nationwide elections for decades.
On the political scene, according to Iraqi interim President Ghazi al-Yawar, Iran is directly channeling “huge amounts of money” into the Shiite political campaign and coaching candidates and political parties sympathetic to Iran. Also interesting is the fact that, according to Iraqi tv, provision has been made for Iraqis abroad to vote—many of whom are in Iran.
In an effort to cultivate pro-Iranian sentiment among Iraqis, Iran is reportedly paying salaries and granting welfare payments to unemployed Iraqis.
At the grassroots level, the Iranian-supported Shiite clergy is galvanizing the Shiite population to come out in force and vote this month (Washington Post, Dec. 7, 2004). This “unprecedented mobilization of the Shiite majority population” is being achieved through “a vast array of mosques, community centers, foundations and networks of hundreds of prayer leaders, students and allied laypeople” (ibid.). The message being distributed via leaflets, posters and banners is that voting in Iraq’s elections is “a religious and national duty.” The subject of sermons for weeks has been: “Voting is obligatory” (ibid.).
On top of all this, Iran is actually supplying Shiite voters to supplement the already-majority Iraqi Shiites. According to Jordanian King Abdullah, the Iranian government is encouraging Iranians to cross the border into Iraq en masse; reportedly, Iraq has already assimilated over a million of them! (ibid., Dec. 8, 2004).
In the face of all this evidence, Jordan’s king has stated the obvious: Iran is using these tactics “to achieve a government that is very pro-Iran” (ibid.).
Of course, the Iranians are vehemently denying these charges, but with their track record of such denials in matters of foreign policy, their honesty can hardly be relied upon. Yawar accurately states that “time is proving, and the situation is proving, beyond any doubt, that Iran has very obvious interference in our business—a lot of money, a lot of intelligence activities and almost interfering daily … especially in the southeast side of Iraq” (Agence France Presse, Dec. 8, 2004).
Just how important to Tehran is an “Iran-friendly” Iraqi government? What is at stake?
King Abdullah warns that a pro-Iranian government could completely overturn the balance of power between the two primary Islamic sects in the region by creating a “crescent” of Shiite governments stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon. No small development—and certainly within the realm of probability in the very near term!
Iraq’s non-Shiite component knows what Iran is up to. Jordan knows it. Egypt knows it. It is no secret! Didn’t the U.S. go into the Middle East partly to put pressure on the world’s prime sponsor of terror? Is that working?
As Stratfor says, “[T]he winds of change in the Middle East are blowing in favor of Iran’s rise to power” (op. cit.). Watch Iran. It will not stop with Iraq. It will not stop with the establishment of an “Islamic crescent.” In fact, it will not stop until it has triggered a succession of events that will result in World War iii.
With reporting by Donna Grieves