The Week in Review
Middle East
Tensions are again ratcheting up between Israel and its radical Islamic enemies. In just over a week, three significant incidents have occurred that are reminders that Israel, despite rumors of peace, is constantly gravitating toward war. The first occurred Friday of last week when Hamas launched a Russian-made Grad rocket into the heart of Ashkelon, damaging numerous buildings and property. Israel responded by launching a series of air strikes against Hamas bases in Gaza. On Saturday, Hamas retaliated by landing a Qassam rocket on a two-story building in the Israeli town of Sderot. The second incident occurred Monday in south Israel, where five rockets fell near Eilat, a popular destination for tourists and vacationing Israelis. The rockets were believed to have been launched from somewhere in the Sinai Peninsula. The third incident occurred Tuesday, when Israeli soldiers engaged in a brief skirmish along Israel’s border with Lebanon. According to media reports, idf soldiers were on a routine patrol inside the border when they were ambushed by soldiers in the Lebanese Armed Forces (laf). Gunfire was exchanged, resulting in the deaths of three laf troops, one Israeli soldier and one journalist. These incidents portend greater conflict between Israel and its radical Islamic enemies, all of which are sponsored by Iran.
The U.S. is on schedule to end combat operations in Iraq by August 31, U.S. President Barack Obama told the national convention of the Disabled American Veterans in Atlanta, Georgia, on August 2. However, the troops are leaving a country that is far from stable. Political parties have yet to form a government five months after elections were held. Violence is on the rise, with July being Iraq’s deadliest month since May 2008 with 535 dead, according to Iraq’s official figures (though U.S. figures show that just 222 people died). Iraqis are nervous about America’s pullout. “The U.S. withdrawal will pave the way for the militias and armed groups to work freely, and they will activate their operations again,” Samer Ahmed, a worker in Baghdad, told Reuters. There is one country in particular that is well-placed to intervene in Iraq once America pulls out. “With the absence of an agreed-upon government and with political rivals threatening that the situation could deteriorate into renewed civil war, the political vacuum gives Iran space to interfere in Iraq’s affairs,” wrote Zvi Bar’el in Israel’s Haaretz (August 3). Iran has a lot levers it can pull in Iraq, but it doesn’t have full control of the country yet. But with the U.S. leaving the country, it is only a matter of time.
Pakistan continues to suffer from its worst floods in 80 years, as floodwaters in the northwest spread down to the southern province of Sindh, where 350,000 people have been evacuated. In the north, the flooding brought on by monsoon rains has killed more than 1,600 people and left more than 4 million homeless. Pakistan, already heavily reliant on foreign aid, will also be greatly impacted economically by the floods. The United States is providing $20 million in initial aid, hoping to counter anti-American sentiment in the country, which it also relies upon for help in the war against the Taliban.
Europe
Geert Wilders’s anti-Islamic Freedom Party will play a key role in the new Dutch government as part of a coalition arrangement agreed on August 1. The People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy and the Christian Democrats announced that they would form a minority coalition. Wilders’s party will back them on a case-by-case basis. This allows Wilders to play a role in government without having to stop speaking out about Islam in order to toe the government line. “We will show that we are a reliable party, and that things can work,” said Wilders. “But we can also continue to say what we want. Our goal is that the government will be successful in making the Netherlands a better, stronger and safer country—with less immigration and asylum.” Wilders’s powerful role in Dutch politics shows how unhappy the people of Europe are becoming with Islamic immigration. For more information, see our article “How to Be Popular in Europe,” from the August Trumpet edition.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi broke with one of his major allies on the evening of July 29, meaning that his coalition could be forced to hold early elections. Gianfranco Fini, who co-founded the Freedom People party with Berlusconi, broke away from the party and formed his own Future and Freedom for Italy party, accusing Berlusconi and his associates of immorality and corruption. As a result, Berlusconi and his allies, the separatist Northern League, no longer have a majority in parliament. They won a vote on August 4, where parliament rejected a no-confidence motion against a junior justice minister accused of corruption; however, their victory only came because Fini’s group abstained. “Only two years into his five-year term, Mr. Berlusconi now governs at Mr. Fini’s pleasure,” wrote the Economist about the vote. As the Trumpet has written before, the real kingmaker in Italy is the Vatican; it brought Berlusconi to power. There have been rumblings of discontent over the past couple years, however, as the Catholic Church struggles to put up with Berlusconi’s philandering. The Vatican may decide that Fini—a former (and some suspect, still current) fascist—is a better option and put him in power. This is a big if, however. Fini has had his spats with the Catholic Church in the past. Whoever comes out on top in Italy, it will be the Vatican’s choice.
As the Church of England becomes embroiled in controversy over female bishops, 15 Anglo-Catholic bishops said that some in their ranks would try to join the Catholic Church. “Whatever happens in the Synod, there are some Anglo-Catholics, including in our own number, who are already looking at, indeed are resolved to join the Ordinariate as the place where they can find a home in which to live and proclaim their Christian faith, in communion with the Holy Father, yet retaining something of the blessings they have known and experienced in the Anglican tradition,” they wrote in a letter to Church of England clergy. “Of course the Ordinariate is a new thing, and not all of us are trailblazers or can imagine what it might be like. Some will undoubtedly want to wait and see how that initiative develops before making a decision. Yet others will make their individual submission and find their future as Roman Catholics …. A number will remain, perhaps even reluctantly because of personal circumstances, family loyalties, even financial necessity, but with a deep sense of unease about the long-term future, an unease that is surely well founded.” Expect the Vatican to use the Church of England’s liberalism to gather more members under the banner of Rome. For more information, see our article “The Church That Swallowed a Church.”
Asia
Kremlin experts say that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s high-profile involvement in wildfires and ownership of the recent spy scandal is designed to demonstrate to the Russian people that he, not President Dmitry Medvedev, is leading the country. With the presidential election only one and a half years away, Putin is gearing up to make his leadership of Russia official once again. During these crises, while state-controlled media depict Medvedev remaining in his Kremlin office, it shows Putin traveling throughout Russia comforting fire victims, scolding local officials, and dictating to Medvedev how to handle the fires that have killed 40 people and destroyed 1.2 million acres around Moscow. Lilia Shevtsova, a Kremlin expert at the Moscow Carnegie Center, said that “Putin uses these difficult times to show the people who is the strong man in the country, who is the national leader, who is the can-do man—and who is just a Kremlin clerk.” Putin also announced that he recently partied with the Russian spies who were discovered in the U.S. in June. More than two years ago, term limits forced Putin to surrender the presidential office and instead take the prime minister’s title. His endorsement guaranteed that Dmitry Medvedev would replace him as president, and also that Medvedev would not actually replace Putin as Russia’s leader. Since then, the two have seemed to be in perfect lockstep, but the Trumpet has long predicted that Putin would eventually nudge Medvedev aside. In the last month, the nudging began.
“China does not agree with the EU’s unilaterial sanctions against Iran” because of its nuclear program, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu on July 30. “We hope the relevant parties will adhere to diplomatic means on the issue.” The EU and Canada adopted new sanctions against Tehran on July 26 that target its foreign trade, energy and banking because of fears that Iran’s nuclear program will be used for weapons. Iran says its program is intended only for peaceful purposes, and China supports its claim. As the U.S., the UN and other Western powers pressure China to take a stronger stance against the belligerent rogue nation, Beijing continues to resist, using the opportunity to assert its growing strength on the world stage.
Latin America/Africa
Germany has launched a new diplomatic initiative to improve its relations with Latin America. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle presented a 60-page strategy paper to an audience at the Foreign Ministry, including ambassadors from Latin America, on August 4. “The whole South American continent is taking off,” read the paper. “Despite many setbacks and difficulties, it is a singular success story, and we should be smart enough to take part.” Westerwelle said he wants to bring a “new quality” to the German-Latin American relationship. He outlined a three-pronged approach: increasing trade, harnessing the diplomatic influence of key nations like Brazil, and taking more collective responsibility on transnational issues. Germany conducted €36.5 billion (us$48.2 billion) worth of trade with Latin America in 2009, an increase of 16.3 percent since 2005. Latin American diplomats welcomed the news. “We now have the opportunity to reestablish a historic bond,” Argentina’s Ambassador Guillermo Nielsen said. “At the start of the last century, our most important market for exports was Germany, but in the postwar era, this relationship was lost. Now it’s coming back.” Europe and Latin America have a shared Catholic heritage. Expect this to be exploited as the two continents draw closer together.
Kenyan voters approved their country’s new constitution 67 percent to 33, according to provisional results released August 5. The New York Times writes, “The new constitution is expected to be a crucial turning point in this country’s postcolonial history by finally addressing many of the political issues that have dogged this East African powerhouse since independence in 1963” (August 4). President Mwai Kibaki declared that the constitution would be “our shield and defender as we strive to conquer poverty, disease and ignorance.” Many hope that it will prevent a repeat of the disputed election in 2007, when over 1,000 people died. The constitution limits the power of the president, gives Kenyans a bill of rights, and allows for land reform in the future. But sadly it is not a fix-all solution for Kenya’s problems. The root cause of Kenya’s problems lies in mankind’s nature. Until that is changed, Kenya will still be plagued with corruption. For more information on how Africa will be fixed, see our article “The Big Men.”
Anglo-America
The U.S. military is cutting spending on “big war” weapons. The Washington Times reported on Tuesday that the Pentagon is looking to save $100 billion over five years, beginning in fiscal 2012. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is attempting to cut spending, especially on systems made for fighting large-scale international conflicts, such as next-generation ballistic-missile submarines and one or two carrier strike groups. The Pentagon is looking to develop less-expensive systems for smaller conflicts comparable to Iraq and Afghanistan. Gates has already halted production of the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter and scaled back or shelved missile defense systems, long-range nuclear bombers and other warplanes. While these attempts to trim budgets and cut waste may seem prudent, the Trumpet projects that the Pentagon will tragically miss those “big war” weapons sooner rather than later.
The Times also reports that Social Security will pay out more than it collects this year, the first-ever year that it has dropped into the red. The financial turning point was published in the Social Security actuary’s annual report, released Thursday.
At the same time, Bloomberg reports that the number of Americans on food stamps hit 40.8 million in May, a new record. Jobless rates are also near a 27-year high. Stocks in the U.S. and Europe fell on the news.
On Wednesday, a federal judge in California struck down the state’s ban on homosexual “marriage.” Vaughn Walker, who himself is homosexual according to the San Francisco Chronicle, overturned Proposition 8, a state constitutional amendment passed in 2008 that struck down a California Supreme Court ruling that homosexuals have a federal constitutional right to marry. The ruling set up a showdown over the homosexual agenda that will escalate to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals and beyond. Ultimately, it is the Supreme Court that will likely decide not if, but, as the Chronicle says, “how quickly gays and lesbians achieve full marriage equality in this country.”