German AfD’s Popularity Hits Record High as Merz’s Sinks to New Low

Germany’s anti-migrant, anti-Brussels Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is leading national polls by an astonishing 5 percent. According to the latest rtl/ntv trend barometer from the polling firm Forsa, published on May 12, the AfD has 27 percent support. This is remarkable given that virtually all mainstream publications have shunned the AfD as far-right and extreme (some of their politicians could certainly be described that way). Yet no matter how badly the AfD is portrayed, the current political class appears even less appealing to many voters.

The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union (cdu/csu), which have largely ruled postwar Germany, are currently polling at only 22 percent, and the historically second-strongest party, the Social Democratic Party, at only 12 percent. While the two parties currently rule all of Germany, they enjoy the support of only a third of the voters.

The blame has largely been placed on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who promised that his election last year would result in a drastic loss of support for the AfD. However, the opposite has occurred, and there is no easy fix in sight.

Is Merz Too Right Wing?

Merz stepped into the political arena with greater authority than his immediate predecessors. He stands for more conservative policies and has implemented strong border controls to curtail immigration. He hoped to bring back voters from the AfD; not only has he failed, he has also caused other problems.

“By shifting the cdu further to the right, Merz has caused the party to lose many voters from the center left,” Forsa director Manfred Güllner explained. “We see that many centrist voters were dissatisfied with the focus on migration.”

During the election campaign, Merz’s party voted with the AfD on a controversial policy to curtail illegal immigration. At the time, according to Güllner, the cdu/csu still polled at 32 or 33 percent and could have easily pushed that figure higher by election day. But even this limited cooperation caused them to lose support; they received only 28.5 percent of the vote.

Those who believe Merz needs to pull further to the right must admit that it will likely come with additional losses to the left.

Of those who have left the cdu/csu since the last election, 22 percent said in the Forsa survey that they would vote for the AfD today. “No other party has attracted as many disillusioned voters,” Welt commented. “However, an even larger proportion (25 percent) have shifted to the left-wing camp (spd, Greens and the Left).” Another 13 percent would vote for one of the other parties, and 40 percent would not vote at all. This means that the cdu/csu has an unpopularity problem that is bigger than the AfD, and drawing closer to the right makes it worse.

Too Authoritarian?

“In some quarters, media coverage is currently rife with doomsday sentiment and hyperbole,” Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote May 10. “The reason is a poll conducted by ard’s ‘Deutschland-Trends.’ According to the poll, only 16 percent of respondents are satisfied with Friedrich Merz, while more than 80 percent are dissatisfied. Never before has a chancellor’s approval rating been this low. One can even read that Merz is the ‘most unpopular head of government in the world.’ This is an analysis that, however, overlooks something essential.”

The paper goes on to argue that Merz’s loss of popularity is primarily due to his authoritarian approach to government. It reports:

At its core, this also has to do with a long-term social shift, a major trend, and indeed with some good news. Namely, that German society is learning, decade by decade, to shed its reverence for authority—even democratically elected authority.

Unpleasant? Well, maybe. But let me ask you this: Unpleasant for whom? For politicians who want to command authority the way they did in Helmut Schmidt’s day, this is certainly uncomfortable. And of course, the decline in respect for authority is something that will create problems in the long run.

Merz is an old-school politician with years of experience in business, and he runs his government in the same way. The economy is in a bad state, and he is putting pressure on everyday workers to work longer hours. While in prior decades the working class may have responded by working harder, today’s Germany is in uproar. The left continually accuses Merz of not caring about the people. He has been the subject of memes on social media for months.

But as Süddeutsche Zeitung points out, even Germany’s most popular politician, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, with his 56 percent approval rating, would have been considered an unpopular minister 20 years ago. The paper then states:

But would it be better for German democracy if citizens once again expressed such enthusiasm in polls as they did in the past regarding a predecessor of Boris Pistorius at the Ministry of Defense: Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg of the csu? In the fall of 2011, 73 percent of those surveyed were satisfied with his work. Today, such figures have become almost unthinkable.

To put it another way: Who cares if Germans today seem less enthusiastic—or, one might say, more level-headed—in their assessments of top political leaders? Isn’t excessive enthusiasm more likely to go hand in hand with gullibility? After all, Guttenberg wasn’t exactly the “best” defense minister of all time.

It is true that Guttenberg’s popularity had likely less to do with his work as minister than with the hype in the media around his personality. Guttenberg, like Merz, acted with authority. However, he also had what Merz seems to lack: charisma.

Our society has changed since Guttenberg resigned in 2011. After the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, people have lost trust in the government, and social media allows them to voice that mistrust. Our society is uniquely capable of tearing down the reputation of politicians until they become the least popular politicians in history.

Too Focused on the AfD?

Of course, if Merz had delivered on his promise to improve the German economy without blaming voters for its poor state, he wouldn’t have become so unpopular. Instead, the German political class is debating how to keep the AfD out of politics. The common consensus has been to build a firewall against them—meaning no formal cooperation—but so far this has only caused them to rise further.

Former political star Guttenberg has entered the debate with some of his own ideas.

In a May 13 podcast with left-wing icon Gregor Gysi, titled “Is a Firewall the Best Weapon Against the AfD?”, Guttenberg gave a handful of concrete examples that could diminish the party’s rise.

In principle, Guttenberg said that he is a proponent of the firewall. However, he believes that more should be done to reach AfD voters. He proposed that rhetorically gifted politicians should publicly debate AfD politicians and thus expose them. Most politicians avoid this, however, believing it would only give the AfD additional attention. Addressing the charismatic Gysis, Guttenberg said:

And now we’re back to the point where we need to put you—or even me—on stage and have these very conversations in such a way that people finally get to hear the better arguments from the mouths of those who, hopefully, will then be able to present them.

Gysi vehemently rejected the idea of debating AfD politicians because of the opposition he would face from his party and some parts of the population. Thus, Guttenberg could see it as his own mission to fulfill this obligation. Given his charisma and comparatively sound political reasoning, Guttenberg could win such debates and not only diminish the rise of the AfD but also cause his own popularity to soar. He would be seen as the tamer of the AfD and the savior of German democracy.

The Trumpet has long viewed Guttenberg as the most likely candidate to lead Germany in the future, albeit not necessarily as chancellor but as someone with authority over a united Europe. End-time prophecies in the books of Daniel and Revelation and in other passages lead us to believe Guttenberg will exploit Germany’s current political crisis to rise to this position.

Daniel 11:21 states: “And in his estate shall stand up a vile person, to whom they shall not give the honour of the kingdom: but he shall come in peaceably, and obtain the kingdom by flatteries.”

The people will be gullible enough to fall for these flatteries. Whoever this man is, he will likely not present himself as an authoritarian. Instead, he will pretend to be something he is not—until he has reached the epitome of power.

In 2018, Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry wrote:

A “vile person” will lead Germany into World War iii. He won’t take charge by winning an election. Right now, Germany is struggling to form a fractious coalition government. Do you suppose this German strongman could come to power even this year by pretending to be somebody he isn’t? This leader will hijack the EU!

Germany’s current political crisis is, in one way or another, leading to the rise of this strongman. Europe needs leadership, and Germany’s weakness opens the door for a strongman to take charge through flatteries. We at the Trumpet have reason to believe we already know who this man will be. To learn more, read “Watch This Man Closely.”