A Narrow Off-ramp for the Iran War

Good morning!

Stocks surged and oil prices plunged yesterday at news of a potential end to the Iran war. The Trump team and Iran are reportedly nearing an agreement to formally halt hostilities and start new negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz.

[BRIEF]

• The White House is pushing a 14-point, one-page memorandum of understanding that would require Iran to pause its nuclear enrichment and the U.S. to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.
• Sources suggest the U.S. offer would make Iran’s nuclear moratorium temporary—perhaps a period of 12 to 15 years. Though the terms would presumably be stricter, the time frame is similar to the sunset clause in President Obama’s infamous jcpoa from 2016.

President Trump announced last night he is pausing Project Freedom, the days-old U.S. Navy effort to escort ships through the strait—a sign of his optimism. To stay within the 60-day limit on war activity without congressional approval, he said last Friday that hostilities are “terminated”—and chose to ignore Iran launching missiles and drones into the United Arab Emirates.

• If accepted, the mou would declare an immediate end to the war and start a 30-day window for a fuller deal.
• If not, President Trump posted this morning, “the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” The White House expects Iranian responses in 48 hours.

The big question all along has been whether Iran’s political negotiators had the support of the radical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It appears the irgc is on board:

• The irgc Navy responded today to the pause by declaring that with “aggressor’s threats neutralized and new protocols in place,” safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured.

However, it also announced the formation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, a new bureaucratic mechanism requiring vessels to get Iranian permission to transit the strait.

• Iran has demonstrated considerable leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, and this would institutionalize it. This positions the irgc as the strait’s guardian/extortioner, preserves the regime’s leverage in negotiations, and boosts its domestic prestige.

If a deal is negotiated—still a big if—it appears both America and Iran will be able to claim victory, with varying legitimacy. Meanwhile, America’s war chest is $25 billion poorer, its military limitations are visible, its supposed international alliances are exposed as illusive, and Iran’s mullahs remain in power, just as Bible prophecy, explained by Gerald Flurry in The King of the South, forecast.

Read our feature story this morning from Josué Michels about the lessons Germany is learning and the way it is positioning itself to finish the job America leaves behind.

One Year of Friedrich Merz

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition government of Christian and Social Democrats mark their one-year anniversary today. But they have no reason to celebrate. From the beginning, Merz has struggled to assert his leadership. He was only elected chancellor by members of parliament on the second try. A year later, the verdict is even clearer: Merz lacks leadership.

The media:

• “The Incredible Shrinking German Chancellor” —Politico
• “‘Stuck in the Mud’: One Year On, Friedrich Merz Struggles to Find His Footing” —Guardian
• “Before the election, Merz made promises he has not yet kept—and after the election, he broke several key promises.” —Welt

The opposition: Germany is “tumbling on the waves like a ship without a helmsman,” said Green Party co-chair Katharina Dröge. That is “simply a major problem in turbulent times.” As a result, every major reform is “driven into a wall to some extent.” The chancellor himself is destabilizing “his coalition as a leader, first and foremost.”

Their own party: “My assessment is somewhat mixed,” said Steffen Bilger, the cdu’s parliamentary secretary. “It’s just not enough yet.” Parliamentary group leader Jens Spahn criticized the coalition’s public image: “Many of our achievements have been overshadowed by too much public bickering and squabbling.”

The polls: Only 11 percent of Germans expressed satisfaction in the representative rtl/ntv Trend Barometer for the coalition government. In July 2025, two months after taking office, 38 percent of people were still satisfied.

Merz shifts blame: “I have been very patient,” Merz told the cdu Economic Council meeting in Berlin today. “The union has made a great many compromises over the past 12 months.” But now, the Social Democrats must be more flexible and exhibit a willingness to compromise.

A former strong supporter: For years, influential former German Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg advocated for Merz to become chancellor. After some M.P.s abstained from voting for him on day one, he rebuked them. But today he is increasingly frustrated with the little progress the coalition has made and demands more leadership from Merz, a greater willingness to sacrifice for unpopular reforms, and more unity.

The Trumpet: For years, the Trumpet has predicted that Germany’s weak government would lead to the rise of a strong German leader.

• Our editor in chief has specifically identified Guttenberg as the man to watch. Guttenberg’s frustrations with the current government may prompt him to seek power.

But the power this prophesied leader will have will not be restrained by the current democratic norms. The Bible reveals that 10 nations or groups of nations will hand over their power to a single leader (Revelation 17:12-13). Germany’s government crisis is destined to pave the way for his emergence.

New Governor General: Hastening Canada’s Transformation

Yesterday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney nominated Louise Arbour as Canada’s new governor general, who represents King Charles iii as Canada’s head of state. Her background suggests she will help Carney push Canada away from its founding traditions in a dangerous direction.

Arbour, a former Supreme Court justice, has also served in various capacities in international organizations like the United Nations.

• 1996 to 1999: Arbour was the chief prosecutor of the United Nations war crimes tribunals for Yugoslavia and Rwanda. In 1999, she led the indictment of Yugoslavian President Slobodan Milošević regarding unrest in Kosovo.
• 2002: As a Supreme Court justice, she supported a 7-2 ruling against a British Columbia school district trying to ban educational content supportive of same-sex relationships.
• 2017–2018: As UN special representative for international migration, she helped craft a nonbinding agreement that encouraged countries to allow increased illegal migration.
• 2021: She led a yearlong inquiry into allegations of sexual misconduct in Canada’s military, issuing 48 recommendations to combat what she called the military’s “glorification of masculinity.”

Little wonder that Prime Minister Carney is enthusiastic about receiving Arbour’s help in transforming Canada.

• Carney is criminalizing the citing of religious texts that criticize homosexuality and other deviancy. Arbour is likely supportive.
• Carney and Justin Trudeau have used mass immigration from non-Christian cultures to alter Canada’s Judeo-Christian identity. Arbour was the UN’s leader for encouraging such transformations globally.

Perhaps most notably, Carney has shifted Canada away from traditional partnerships to an increasingly close relationship with Germany.

• Germany is using international institutions like the European Union to establish itself as a global power. It designing Yugoslavia’s disintegration played a massive role in Germany’s power grab. Arbour, as the lead prosecutor against Yugoslavia’s head of state, played a key role in that.
• The Bible prophesies that Germany’s rise will ultimately lead it to take over Anglosphere countries like Canada. Supporting the military’s pacification could contribute to this.

Canada has already fallen away from most of its Bible-based heritage. The appointment of Arbour as representative of the King, one of the few remaining links to this heritage, will accelerate this decline.

IN OTHER NEWS

Russia discusses ceasefire, pummels Ukraine: Russian military forces carried out devastating aerial attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets yesterday, claiming the lives of at least 27 people and wounding more than 70 others. The strikes, concentrated on the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, used missiles, drones and glide bombs. Residential buildings and a vehicle repair shop were among the locations struck. “This was an absolutely cynical terrorist strike, with no military justification whatsoever,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media. The attacks come just days after Russian President Vladimir Putin had a call with United States President Donald Trump, proposing a ceasefire from May 8-9 that would coincide with Russia’s Victory Day observances. Zelenskyy responded to Putin’s proposal with calls instead for an open-ended ceasefire. Yesterday’s catastrophic attacks appear to be Putin’s answer.

‘Art Olympics’ readmits Russia: The world’s largest contemporary art exhibition, Venice Biennale, allowed Russia to open a pavilion on Tuesday after years of banning the nation for its “grievous” war on Ukraine. More than 50 protesters demonstrated at the Russian exhibit today, performing songs, waving Ukrainian flags and setting off smoke bombs. “This pavilion stands on Ukrainian mass graves,” activist Inna Shevchenko said. “We are here to remind that the only Russian culture, the only Russian art today, is blood.” But the Russian exhibit continues to operate, reflecting a gradual rehabilitation of the country’s reputation.

The U.S. isn’t just fighting Iran: “China Is Still Supplying Drone Factories in Iran, Russia Despite U.S. Sanctions,” the Wall Street Journal reported yesterday. According to former U.S. Treasury officials, China serves as a transit hub for American and European-made components to supply factories in Iran and Russia. For example, Xiamen Victory Technology is selling Iran and Russia Limbach L550 engines used in the Shahed-136 kamikaze drones. The engine was originally designed by a Chinese company’s German subsidiary. This means that the U.S. is not only fighting Iran but also Chinese and even Western technology. Bible prophecy reveals that these same world powers will soon openly work together against the U.S.

Is India becoming a one-party state? Two of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s most significant opponents were voted out of office on Monday. Mamata Banerjee and M. K. Stalin were some of the only major figures opposing the agenda of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party, which has governed India for 12 years. As the New York Times put it, “Mr. Modi has made India look like a one-leader state.” Authoritarian leaders are becoming much more common than in previous decades. To learn how this trend matches Bible prophecy, read “The New Strongman Age.”

Romania’s government collapses: On Tuesday, Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan lost a vote of no confidence initiated by the far-right Unity of Romanians party and the socialist Social Democrat Party. A total of 281 of the 464 members of the legislature voted to effectively end his 10-month tenure: He remains a caretaker of the EU member state until the legislature forms a new government. Bolojan is Romania’s fourth prime minister in 5½ years. Far-right parties are gaining ground in Europe, and the fact that it was able to ally with the Social Democrat party, Romania’s largest party, in this vote is yet another sign of strength. European political instability is leading to a backlash against democracy as a whole and the rise of a more stable, decisive, autocratic, aggressive government under a German strongman.

Belgium prosecuting Jewish circumcision doctors: Today, Belgian prosecutors announced their intent to charge two Jewish mohels with intentional assault and battery with premeditation against minors and the unlawful practice of medicine. A mohel is a specially trained Jewish officiant who performs the ritual circumcision on baby boys on the eighth day after birth, a custom that traces back to Genesis 17. Belgium allows non-medical circumcision, but the law requires a doctor to be involved. The case began last year after complaints, including some from within the Jewish community in Antwerp. Police conducted raids, seized items like knives, and gathered evidence. Judges will decide on June 18 whether the case goes to trial. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar condemned the prosecution, and U.S. Ambassador to Belgium Bill White called it “wrong,” a “shameful stain on Belgium” and anti-Semitic.

Candidates endorsed by President Donald Trump won Republican primaries in Indiana and Ohio yesterday. Indiana challengers defeated five incumbent state senators who had opposed redrawing the state’s congressional districts. Trevor De Vries beat incumbent Dan Dernulc, 75 percent to 24 percent, while Blake Fiechter defeated incumbent Travis Holdman 61 percent to 39 percent. Indiana Governor Mike Braun called it a “historic night” for conservatives. In Ohio, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, an outspoken supporter of President Trump, easily won the Republican nomination for governor. The results show that the president remains a powerful force in shaping the Republican Party.