The Zealot Generals Have Taken Over

Who runs Iran? It is increasingly clear: It is not the supreme leader, the clergy or the civilian government but rather the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Even the New York Times sees this reality. Yesterday, it reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is recovering in the hospital from serious injuries sustained in the war, and the irgc is in control.

• It quoted Abdolreza Davari, adviser to former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, saying: “Mojtaba is managing the country as though he is the director of the board. He relies heavily on the advice and guidance of the board members, and they collectively make all the decisions. The generals are the board members.”

The New York Times wrote:

Iranian officials and three other individuals who know Mojtaba Khamenei said in interviews from Tehran that his deference to the Guards was partly because he was new to the leadership role. He lacks the political stature and religious clout that made his father such a singular force. And it is partly because of his deep personal ties to the Guards.

Hormuz fiasco: A week ago, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed Iran would no longer target shipping in the Strait of Hormuz as part of peace talks with the United States. A day later, the irgc resumed its targeting. Reports suggest Araghchi, who works for President Masoud Pezeshkian and the civilian government, didn’t consult the irgc. The irgc appeared to be demonstrating who actually controls Iranian forces and policy. Two anonymous U.S. officials told Axios:

“We thought they were negotiating with the right people …. But what happened is the Iranian team went back, and the irgc and those kinds of people said, ‘Oh, no, no. You don’t speak for us.’”

“We aren’t sure who’s in charge, and neither do they. That’s going to have work itself out.”

Overview: The United States has been having on-and-off talks with the civilian government as mediated by Pakistan. But this does little good if the civilian government isn’t actually in charge. Read more in “Who Is Leading Iran?”