Russian Aid to Iran Raises Stakes in War

Russia has increased defense aid and intelligence sharing with Iran, helping the regime better target and attack American and Israeli forces, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday. The expanding support is likely to complicate U.S. and Israeli plans to bring down the Iranian regime and prolong a conflict from which Russia benefits.

Quiet contributions: The Russians have provided Iran with components for adapted Shahed drones intended to enhance navigation and communication. Drawing on its widespread use of Shahed and Shahed-style drones in the war on Ukraine, Russia has advised Iran on issues related to optimal flight altitudes and drone quantities needed for certain types of attacks.

Russia has also provided satellite imagery, enabling Iran to strike specific U.S. assets in the region, including a high-value early-warning radar system in Jordan.

“Iranian targeting in the Gulf has been more focused on radar and command and control. Iran’s strike packages have come to strongly resemble what Russia does [in its war on Ukraine].”
—Nicole Grajewski, Russia-Iran relations expert

Mutual benefit: Since Russia expanded its war against Ukraine in February 2022, Iran has emerged as a close partner, selling it more than 50,000 suicide drones and significant quantities of munitions. Iran has also helped Russia circumvent sanctions. Considering this aid, Russia’s decision to increase support for Iran is hardly unexpected.

• Russia also benefits from a prolonged Iran war since the conflict constricts assistance to Ukraine and boosts global prices of oil—the lifeblood of Russia’s economy, especially during wartime.

The Trump administration downplayed the significance of Russia’s assistance. Spokeswoman Olivia Wales said Wednesday, “Nothing provided to Iran by any other country is affecting our operational success.”

But Russia’s expanding support shows the potential for Iran to weather sustained assaults and exert outsized force beyond U.S. and Israeli expectations—and perhaps beyond what voters will tolerate.

Be it due to Russian backing or other dynamics, the Trumpet contends that the current conflict will not remove Iran’s radical Islamist regime.