Why Iran Loves Sanctions Relief

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Why Iran Loves Sanctions Relief

What would Iran do if all sanctions were lifted?

The latest deadline for nuclear negotiations is looming large on the horizon. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is calling for complete removal of sanctions in any final deal. Looking at the United States’ concessions so far, he will likely get what he wants, or very close to it.

So what would Iran do with all that unfrozen money? To answer that, just look at what it has done with some of the relief it has already received.

Buzzing about in Iranian skies today are 15 new commercial airliners—the latest addition to Iran’s Mahan Air fleet. Despite being in violation of current restrictions, Iran’s transport minister has been gloating over the purchases, saying that the 15 have all been purchased since February.

Mahan Air, a private company that has had repeated run-ins with the U.S. government, supports Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its controversial ballistic missile program. A 2012 press release states that “Iran used Iran Air and Mahan Air flights between Tehran and Damascus to send military and crowd control equipment to the Syrian regime.”

The U.S. has previously confiscated Mahan Air planes and fined companies up to $15 million for selling planes to them. But as sanctions loosen, companies no longer fear punishment from the United States.

Mahan Air will likely continue to facilitate Iran’s meddling in surrounding nations. If Iran is the puppeteer and the likes of Syrian President Bashar Assad the puppet, then companies such as Mahan Air are the strings that connect them. That is why sanctions have targeted these companies specifically.

Mahan Air ferries Iranian weapons and supplies to Assad and his Hezbollah associates as they continue their bloodthirsty war. The acquisition of more planes is just one way that Iran is utilizing sanctions relief to advance its regional goals.

Another way is through the unfrozen funding. Billions of dollars have been returned to the Iranians, and billions more are now being created due to the steady flow of oil out of the country. Nations such as China are eagerly buying Iranian oil, ensuring the steady cash flow back.

A certain amount is being invested back into a starved populace and an ailing economy, but it is also going toward other, more nefarious programs.

According to The Hill, “A diplomatic deal with Iran to limit its nuclear program could inadvertently jumpstart the country’s cyberwarfare efforts … while Iranian cyberwarriors might spare the U.S. if a deal is reached, they would also gain access to better technology and training, speeding the already rapid pace at which the country is becoming a major cyberpower.” Iran already invests tens of millions into its aggressive cyberprograms.

Iran’s ballistic missile program has never been as active as it is right now. Under the weak guise of “satellite research,” Iran has made leaps and bounds in expanding the distances and capabilities of its intercontinental ballistic missiles. This is not done on loose change—it takes hefty financing. Iran, however, has more money to work with today than it has had in years.

Iran’s military has also been increasingly active. Critical areas such as the Strait of Hormuz are now bristling with armaments. Iran’s battleships sail through the Red Sea, its jets conduct airstrikes in Iraq, and its ground forces sweep through northern cities claiming territory previously held by the Islamic State. Wars don’t come cheaply, so it’s little wonder that Iran’s military expansion is coming at the same time it is receiving the benefits of unfrozen finances.

Republican Sen. John Ratcliffe stated, “If anything, the increased revenue and Iran’s perceived ‘improved standing’ in the international community would only whet its appetite for heightened aggression.”

Sanctions relief is strengthening Iran’s economy and, to a degree, boosting the standard of living for Iranians. But it is also aiding Iran’s vast military and belligerent foreign policies.

All this expansion and activity has come about by weakened U.S. policy and what many hailed as meager sanctions relief. What will happen once all sanctions are removed? President Obama has promised that only nuclear sanctions will be removed—sanctioning for Iran’s terrorist involvement will continue. But this is little cause for celebration.

In the event of a deal, America will be even more likely to try to appease Iran. It won’t want to see Tehran back out on a deal that was so long fought for—and will inevitably be hailed as Mr. Obama’s greatest accomplishment in the Middle East. Secondly, the amount of relief that will come suddenly on Iran will be enormous compared to what it has already received.

According to Reuters analyst and former counselor for the international strategy at Chevron Jan Kalicki:

It should also be recognized that Iran can use additional funds, as sanctions are lifted, to promote disruptive policies, including its support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and its help for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are most associated with these policies, as well as with pushing a nuclear weapons option.

Iran loves sanctions relief because it enables it to further its aggressive agenda in the Middle East. Iran hasn’t just created new regional ambitions to dominate Iraq or Yemen. It has worked for years to destabilize governments and bolster radical Shiite influence. All it has lacked to make the plans work has been a climate free from U.S. influence—hence destabilized—and, of course, the financial means. Both overarching factors are now present.

Keep watching Iran’s involvement in the Middle East. The nuclear deadline is coming up quickly. If a deal is signed, Iran will be on path to enhance its Middle East policies to a far greater extent.