Russia’s Rise Congeals Europe

The Soviet Union’s 1991 collapse reversed a development that had been in the works since the 17th century when the Russian Empire first emerged. This development was the systemic integration and centralization of Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Siberia and the Caucasus. Its core was Moscow. Its goal was challenging European powers.

Although economically brittle, the Russians were militarily powerful enough to defeat Napoleon and Hitler. They even stood their ground against the immensely powerful United States for over four decades during the Cold War.

When the Soviet Union collapsed, the Western world rejoiced, greeting the event as a triumph for liberty, and a victory of democracy, and evidence of the supremacy of capitalism over socialism. Former Soviet nations, for the most part, were also optimistic and filled with dreams of democratizing and rebuilding.

But not everyone viewed the collapse as a positive event.

“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said back in 2005.

The aftermath of the collapse presented trials, not just to Russia, but also to many of the former Soviet nations that initially celebrated the union’s collapse. Those nations without energy to export underwent a massive decline in standard of living, followed by an era of stifling economic stagnation. The strain has been enough to prod some of these countries back into Moscow’s arms. The most notable of such reconciliations was the creation of the Eurasian Union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In April of this year, Putin called the establishment of this economic union the most meaningful geopolitical event in Asia since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Putin intends the partnership between these three nations to be a permanent feature inside the sphere of the former Soviet Union. For former Soviet states, it is an attractive alternative to the European Union, and Putin intends to recruit other states into the fold: “We hope that other partners who are interested in more advanced cooperation will join Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan,” he said.

Under Putin’s rein, Moscow is laboring to recreate the geography of the Soviet Union, and to reassert Russia’s influence in the region. The goal of reversing the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century” underpins almost every facet of the Kremlin’s foreign policy. And Russia’s focus is not lost on Europe.

Finland’s Dilemma

Many Finns desperately want their nation to leave the EU. From its earliest months in the Union, Finland has fastidiously followed EU economic guidelines and watched while other nations flouted the system. Finns are now outraged that they have to finance the extravagance of profligate nations like Greece and Spain. That outrage has them eager to call it quits. “[A]fter all the lying, dishonesty and malfeasance in Europe, we are being asked to bail out their banks,” said Timo Soini, leader of the True Finns party. “This is the last straw.”

But despite the grumbling, Finland isn’t going anywhere.

There’s no doubt that if Helsinki struck out on its own, it could thrive economically. Finland is the last untarnished aaa state in the Union, and has a public debt of only 51 percent of gross domestic product. That would be robust even if a continent-wide economic crisis was not under way. But the economy isn’t the only factor Helsinki has to consider.

Enter: Russia.

Looming in the collective Finnish memory is the Winter War of 1940 when Russian forces conquered what was then Finland’s second-largest city, Viipuri. Moscow changed the city’s name to Vyborg, and it remains part of Russia to this day. In 2008, Finland also saw Russia overturn Europe’s postwar borders, attack Georgia and annex South Ossetia. Even as recently as this June, Moscow made veiled threats to Finland when Nikolai Makarov, Russia’s armed forces chief, compared Finland’s military maneuvers near Russia’s east to those of Georgia in South Ossetia before the 2008 war.

The inescapable implication was that Russia would have justification for aggression against Helsinki.

Fear of Russian aggression was a primary reason Finland joined the EU in the first place. “Membership of the EU and the euro is all about getting as far away as possible from Moscow,” said Tampere University Prof. Tapio Raunio. “That has affected how we think for the past 20 years.” In order to protect Finland from the Russian bear, leaders aimed to entwine the country as deeply as possible into all facets of the Western system. Now, that same fear is the main force keeping Helsinki locked into the Union, despite the economic drain EU membership represents for the Finns.

Europe’s Barometer

On August 22, German Chancellor Angela Merkel traveled to Moldova to meet with the nation’s leaders. The trip raised media attention because it is fairly uncommon for Germany to engage in such high-level diplomatic activity there.

What prompted the visit?

Shortly after the Soviet Union’s collapse, the territory of Transdniestria split off from Moldova proper. Since then, Russia has backed the small territory, stationing more than 1,000 soldiers there and subsidizing a hefty chunk of its budget. The territory is strategically located on the Bessarabian gap, which makes Russia’s tenacious position there quite valuable. But Moldova wants Russian forces out of Transdniestria, and, in recent years, Berlin has postured itself as a mediator on the matter. Unsurprisingly, Germany has taken Moldova’s side.

In July, Russia indicated for the first time that it might consider pulling out of Transdniestria, and, although Merkel’s August visit didn’t result in any overt breakthrough deal, its timing—not even a month after Russia’s unprecedented indication—is beyond coincidence. Stratfor said Berlin’s recent diplomatic activity in Moldova was designed to “remind Russia that Germany is an important player there” (August 21).

Eastern Europe has long functioned as a barometer of the geopolitical temperature of the broader European continent, vis-à-vis Russia. Although it remains difficult to tell what Transdniestria’s ultimate alignment will be, it is clear that Berlin jockeyed into the position of mediator in the controversy because it wants to counter Russian influence there. Merkel’s recent activity in Moldova indicates a rising German awareness of Russia’s resurgence.

The ‘Spark’ to Unite Europe

More and more European policymakers recognize Putin’s determination to recreate the Soviet Union’s former glory. In February, British Member of the European Parliament Edward McMillan-Scott said: “For the European Union, Russia is the elephant in the room—something that everyone is seeing but nobody wants to discuss. Russia is the bear on EU’s doorstep but what we say in our official statements does not reflect our real attitude towards it.”

So what is Europe’s “real attitude” toward Russia?

Russia and Europe wield crucial influence on each other, which forces them to choose either to respect each other as friends, or to compete as enemies. For now, the two are cooperating, but German-led Europe is increasingly anxious about the Kremlin’s aspirations. The more pushy and power-thirsty Moscow grows, the more the European nations feel forced to forfeit political and economic autonomy in exchange for the EU’s militarily assurance. The example of Finland illustrates this powerfully.

“What Russia is doing will be the spark to bring the heads of nations in Europe together with the Vatican to form a ‘United Nations of Europe,’” wrote Herbert W. Armstrong (co-worker letter, Jan. 23, 1980).

Russia’s belligerence is spawning fear among Europeans that will hasten the rise of a European Union that is sufficiently unified to confront Putin and the Kremlin. The more advances Putin makes in his quest to recreate the Soviet sphere, the greater Europe’s urgency toward this unification will become.

Putin said the recreation of the Soviet empire is “inevitable.” And Bible prophecy corroborates this view—though the Asian bloc that is prophesied to congeal will be quite different from the Soviet Union, primarily in that it will include China. These prophecies make plain that Asia’s rise and the unification of Europe will lead into the darkest and bloodiest chapter in mankind’s history. But the same prophecies say that just beyond this bleak future lies an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity for Asia, Europe and the whole world! To understand the awe-inspiring details of Russia’s resurgence and how it ties to this future time of true peace, read Russia and China in Prophecy.