China and Taiwan Cozy Up

China is renewing its efforts to draw Taiwan into its sphere of influence. On Wednesday, Chinese authorities stated that Beijing wanted more political trust with Taipei. They also reiterated that the one-China policy must be recognized.

Yang Yi, a spokesman for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said, “The peaceful development of the cross-Strait ties will benefit the people on both sides.” China’s push for unification with Taiwan has intensified since 2008, when Ma Ying-jeou became Taiwan’s president. In demonstration of his allegiance to mainland China, Ma often refers to the two nations as “one country, two areas.” He recently said both sides could take inspiration from the reunification of Germany.

Closer ties between China and Taiwan are bad news for the United States and other nations that are concerned about China’s ascendancy. In the past, Taiwan has provided a valuable listening post thanks to the island’s proximity to China, its advanced technology, and its democratic values. Shared language, ethnicity and culture also allow Taiwanese intelligence agents to blend into Chinese society. But reports have emerged that Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou has already curtailed intelligence operations in China and is planning to stop sharing intelligence with the U.S. and its allies.

Expect China’s “soft power” policy toward Taiwan to continue until Beijing perhaps offers to give it a status similar to that of Hong Kong. If Taipei were to refuse China’s advances, Beijing would be in a position to use the threat of force, but under Ma’s Beijing-friendly rule, such refusals are becoming less and less likely. Either way, expect Taiwan to be absorbed into Red China, and for Beijing to wield even more power as a result—both in the region and beyond.