The Week in Review

An OPEC divided, Syria plus or minus Assad, removing Taliban sanctions, Spain’s sudden activists, and the new winner of the Charlemagne prize.
 

Middle East

The markets were shocked on Wednesday as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced it would not increase oil production. Oil prices spiked 2 percent on the news. With Libya in turmoil, most traders had expected opec to boost supply to make up the difference. But, according to Dow Jones Newswires, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola and Libya all voted against increasing supplies. Opposing the Iran-led bloc were Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Nigeria and Ecuador. Reports suggest the opec meeting was perhaps the most divisive in recent history. The split opec vote is in fact characteristic of the whole Middle East region right now. Increasingly, the Middle East is dividing into two opposing camps: one led by Iran and another led by Saudi Arabia.

In Syria, thousands of residents fled the northern city of Jisr ash-Shughur this week in anticipation of a massive military offensive in retaliation to clashes there on Monday that reportedly killed 120 security personnel. Islamist insurgents repelled government forces in an operation that was better organized than previous opposition efforts. While the widespread discontent in Syria is unlikely to go away anytime soon, for the moment the Assad regime appears to still have a firm grip on power, enjoying the strong support of the military officer corps, mostly Alawites and Christians who fear an Islamist regime coming to power. Some analysts do see change on the horizon though. “This looks like the tipping point,” says Barry Rubin, author of The Truth About Syria. Concessions so far, such as the release last week of hundreds of political prisoners from jails, have failed to blunt the effect of the protests. Rubin says the impasse may result in the regime staying but Assad leaving. “There are two parts to this regime,” he said, “the man himself and his immediate family, and the larger regime, including its military support.” Prof. Mordechai Kedar, a professor of security affairs at Israel’s Bar Ilan University, recently wrote that it was possible a coup could be carried out by someone high in the ranks of the army or the intelligence agency. Professor Kedar explained that such a person would “conduct a hasty trial and treat [the Assad family] as the public expects them to be treated, in order to attain calm. He will announce constitutional changes and economic reforms and schedule elections for several months later.” This is certainly a possibility—and could open the door for some serious foreign-policy changes in Syria. Biblical prophecy indicates that at some point in the near future Syria will ally with the more “moderate” Arab states and part ways with Iran.

Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (akp) is on track to win a decisive victory in the country’s general election on Sunday. What is of particular concern to Israel is that the Islamist-leaning akp may even win the two-thirds majority needed to draft a new constitution, altering the nation’s future direction. The current constitution was written by the military and is staunchly secular. “Although Israel is keeping diplomatically quiet,” Courcy’sIntelligence Brief reports, “behind the scenes it is alarmed by the prospect of a landslide akp victory.” Relations between Turkey and Israel have remained strained since the flotilla raid incident last year, and recent campaign rhetoric confirms Ankara’s hostility toward the Jewish state. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, for example, told voters on June 5: “There cannot be peace in the Middle East if Israel is seen as a ‘privileged’ country that is above international law. Israel needs to accept being subject to international law as an ordinary nation-state.” Biblical prophecy reveals that Turkey’s hostility toward Israel will in the future result in deadly betrayal.

Even as the United States and Britain push for reconciliation with the Taliban in order to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan, opposition to this idea is growing among Afghans themselves. Guardian.co.uk reported last week that the U.S. and Britain are pushing for the United Nations to lift sanctions this month against 18 former senior Taliban figures in order to pave the way for peace talks. The thinking is that this would send a clear signal to Taliban insurgents that they can be reintegrated into Afghan society if they lay down their arms. Many of the locals, however, see this for the bad idea it is. Opponents of the Taliban, including politicians and the media, are arguing against peace talks by citing recent assassinations of key figures from the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. Most recently, the police commander of northern Afghanistan, Gen. Mohammad Daud Daud, was assassinated on May 28 in what is thought to have been a Taliban suicide attack. Other high-profile figures from the Northern Alliance who have been killed include several police chiefs and the governor of Kunduz province. In response to these killings, the independent secular daily Hasht-e Sobh wrote, “The recent developments in the country showed that begging for peace can only empower the enemy and increase its patience.” There have also been protests at universities in Kabul and two northern cities against peace talks with the Taliban. These Afghans are the ones who are going to have to live with an empowered Taliban—and they see the danger of accommodation with the Islamist group.

Europe

The pope officially backed Croatia’s bid to enter the European Union last Saturday. The announcement, made en route to the Croatian capital city of Zagreb, highlights a disturbing Vatican history. Speaking to reporters, Pope Benedict xvi said: “I think it is logical, just and necessary that [Croatia] enters.” “Croatia is a nation at the heart of Europe, its history and its culture,” he said. “From its earliest days, your nation has formed part of Europe, and has contributed, in its unique way, to the spiritual and moral values that for centuries have shaped the daily lives and the personal and national identity of Europe’s sons and daughters.” The pope then went on to give Croatia a mission. He told the nation of 89 percent Catholics to reverse the tide of secularism washing across the continent. “It seems to me that this aspect could be the very mission of this nation that joins now: to renew a unity within diversity. The European identity is an identity, precisely because of the richness of the different cultures which converge in the Christian faith and in the great Christian values,” he said. But the pope’s enthusiastic support of Croatia belies some very disturbing recent history between the Vatican and the breakaway republic. This history is extremely important because it clearly illustrates who is dominating Europe and why it will not lead to peace. In 1991, Germany recognized the Yugoslav breakaway states of Croatia and Slovenia. Almost immediately, the Vatican likewise recognized these states. Germany and the Vatican did this despite the stated opposition of the U.S., Britain, France, most of Europe and the UN—and knowing full well that it would mean the outbreak of a full-scale civil war and the disintegration of the nation of Yugoslavia. Croatia’s entrance into the European Union would be the final culmination of a German-Vatican fait accompli. Germany’s old World War ii ally is about to enter the European Union. And America’s betrayed World War ii Serbian allies will find themselves in a situation startlingly reminiscent of the 1940s. For more information on the important biblical perspective on the breakup of Yugoslavia, read our free booklet The Rising Beast.

Tens of thousands of Spanish youth have taken to the streets in protest as the jobless rate soars to more than 45 percent for 16-to-24-year-olds—the highest in the European Union. In the space of the past few weeks, the central square in Madrid has become the epicenter of a new movement of those who call themselves the indignados—the angry ones. Even the youth who have jobs in Spain are often caught in a system of poorly paid, temporary contracts. Polls show that half of Spanish 30-year-olds are living with their parents. The crisis shaking the eurozone has forced numerous young Spaniards to live much below their aspirations. This situation is now transforming a generation once thought of as apathetic into a group of political activists. “Suddenly people are talking about politics everywhere,” said María Luz Morán, a sociologist at the Complutense University of Madrid. These two ingredients of mass unemployment and dissatisfaction with the political system present eurozone nations with the risk of political extremism. As austerity measures kick in and the eurozone debt crisis begins to really bite voters, extreme political parties are becoming mainstream, warns Dylan Grice, a strategist at Societe Generale in Paris. Many moderate, law-abiding and overall tolerant citizens of more than one EU nation have recently voted for parties with an extremist past, militant rhetoric and a dubious political agenda. In France, Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the National Front, is polling ahead of both President Nicolas Sarkozy and any likely Socialist challenger for the presidential election in 2012. In Germany, genuine fears exist concerning the possible emergence of a nationalist party pushing to restore the deutsche mark. The growing discontent over the euro crisis could well be a catalyst that leads to the ascension of a second Adolf Hitler or a new Charlemagne in Europe.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has not given any speeches about the crisis in Libya. Neither has she admitted that the recent breach at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant was unsettling to Germans. In recent months, she actually has not offered much firm commentary on any of the scores of troubling developments playing out on the world stage. And the German press is taking note. On June 2, Spiegel Online published an article alerting its readers to the “faintheartedness of Germany’s politicians.” It wrote: “Merkel, for her part, lacks the confidence to take decisive action. She has been accused of timidity for years, but at least she had convictions in the past. Today she no longer says what she believes. … Who has a clear vision anymore—who has courage in German politics?” Germany’s rising dissatisfaction with its leaders is something the Trumpet has long predicted. At its core, Spiegel Online’s commentary represents the pleas of Germans for a strong German leader—a leader free of the fear, concern and lack of confidence that encumbers Merkel and most of Germany’s other politicians today.

European Central Bank head Jean-Claude Trichet was awarded this year’s Charlemagne Prize on June 2 for his role in stabilizing the eurozone. During his acceptance speech, Trichet outlined his dream for a future EU Finance Ministry that possesses the power to “veto the budgets of debt-ridden eurozone countries,” according to Spiegel Online. In the short term, Europe needs a “‘quantum leap’ in governance now,” he said. “I have called, in the name of the Governing Council, on the Commission, the Council and the European Parliament to be very ambitious in reinforcing economic governance in the euro area.” Trichet argued that Europe’s economic difficulties mean the eurozone needs a common authority that can override the elected governments of nations in economic crisis. This would mean a huge loss of national sovereignty. But in the long term, Trichet wants the EU’s jurisdiction to go even further. “In this union of tomorrow, or of the day after tomorrow, would it be too bold, in the economic field, with a single market, a single currency and a single central bank, to envisage a Ministry of Finance of the Union?” Trichet asked. This Finance Ministry wouldn’t necessarily administer all the taxation and spending for the Union, he said. However, it would oversee euro-nations’ fiscal policies and represent the eurozone in international financial bodies. Europe is tiptoeing toward fiscal union—a common economic government. As the Trumpet has pointed out for years, the euro was designed as a tool to force the nations of Europe into fiscal, monetary and political union.

The European Union’s General Court ruled on June 7 that the European Parliament must release a report from 2008 that shows that meps abused the system of allowances intended for parliamentary assistants. The report comes shortly after the Times of London uncovered a scandal where meps were willing to table amendments in return for cash. Yet more corruption exposed in Brussels will not make it more popular with ordinary voters.

Greece is at risk of going bankrupt, according to a letter by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble addressed to European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet recently leaked to the press. Unless Greece is bailed out again, “We will encounter the first disorderly bankruptcy inside the eurozone,” he wrote. German Social Democrat mp Peer Steinbrück said “it is no longer about whether, but only about how to restructure Greek debt,” according to Handelsblatt. Keep watching Europe for the next stage in the debt crisis.

Over 105,000 Christians are martyred every year, according to Italian sociologist Massimo Introvigne of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. Introvigne made the statement at the International Conference on Inter-religious dialogue between Christians, Jews and Muslims, which concluded on June 3. Cardinal Péter Erdo of Budapest, who was also attending the conference, stated that “the danger is for many Christian communities in the Middle East to die out for emigration.” He continued: “Europe should be preparing for a new wave of emigration, this time of Christians fleeing persecution.” The conference was hosted by Hungary as the highlight of its presidency of the EU. Watch for Europe to confront this persecution of Christians.

Asia

A surge in energy consumption last year bumped China ahead of the United States, making it the world’s biggest consumer of energy. According to a report published on Wednesday, for the year of 2010, China’s consumption accounted for 20.3 percent of global demand compared to 19 percent consumed by the U.S. Global energy consumption as a whole increased in 2010 at the fastest rate since 1973, as developing nations rebounded from the global economic downturn. “By year-end, economic activity for the world as a whole exceeded pre-crisis levels driven by the so-called developing world,” said BP chief economist Christof Ruehl. The overall increase was by 5.6 percent, with consumption in the world’s richest countries rising by only 3.5 percent. China’s consumption grew by 11.2 percent, more than any other nation. India was not far behind, with energy consumption growing by 9.2 percent, according to the survey. As China’s consumption continues to grow, other nations, especially in Europe, will assume a more combative stance in securing resources for themselves. When more than one power aggressively pursues the world’s wealth with such ferocity, intense competition results and eventually gives way to war.

An adviser to China’s central bank said on Wednesday that Republican lawmakers in the U.S. are “playing with fire” by considering a brief debt default as a method of forcing Washington to decrease budgets. China is the largest foreign creditor to the U.S., with over $1 trillion in Treasury debt, and a growing number of U.S. Republicans view the notion of a technical default—basically withholding interest payments to foreign lenders for several days—as a way to strong arm policymakers into substantial spending cuts. But Li Daokui of the People’s Bank of China said such a default could destabilize the U.S. dollar and that Beijing should discourage Washington from implementing the idea. “The result will be very serious and I really hope that they would stop playing with fire,” Li said. The U.S.’s deficit is projected to reach $1.4 trillion this fiscal year.

Last weekend, senior military officials and defense ministers from across the Asia-Pacific region came together for the Asian Security Summit, or Shangri-La Dialogue. On Thursday, the Moscow Times noted that “one interesting feature of this year’s summit was the increasing visibility of Russia as a player in Asia’s security architecture. In contrast to previous dialogues where Russia was barely mentioned, this year Russia’s presence was noted by many regional players both from Northeast Asia and increasingly from Southeast Asia as well.” Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak delivered the opening address at the summit, saying, “I say to our friends from U.S., China, Russia, India and beyond: We in asean share your values and your aspirations, and we urge you to work with us.” The Moscow Times continued, saying, “The Kremlin’s Asian endeavors are not opportunistic or temporary. They represent a trend that is likely to persist.”

Latin America

A massive volcano has been erupting since last week in Chile. Scientists warn that it is likely to keep spewing out ash for several more days. Thousands have been evacuated from their homes as ash covers houses, fields, rivers and lakes. Airplanes have been grounded as far away as Argentina and farmers are struggling to keep their dairy cattle herds healthy as up to 30 inches of ash covers their pastures. This eruption is only the latest in a series of seismic disturbances shaking the nations.

Anglo-America

The United States has once again sided with Argentina, along with Venezuela, against the UK over the Falkland Islands. On June 7, America signed on to a draft declaration on the question of the Malvinas Islands that calls for Britain to negotiate with Argentina over the sovereignty of the Falklands. This comes as Argentina has been increasing its aggression against the islands, and despite the fact there is nothing to negotiate—Argentina’s claim to the islands is tenuous, to say the least, and its inhabitants would all vastly prefer Britain to retain sovereignty. But it shows that despite U.S. President Barack Obama’s words of support during his recent visit to Britain, the special relationship between the two countries is dead.

A new national poll released this week reveals that 48 percent of Americans now believe that another Great Depression will occur within the next 12 months. These fears are hurting President Obama’s chances in the next federal election. Another poll released this week shows that the president’s approval rating recently dropped below 50 percent. As more and more Americans wake up to the truth about their nation’s economic future, expect political turmoil to ensue.

As the Obama administration addresses America’s economic woes, saving money is clearly not part of the strategy. On Tuesday, in a conversation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Obama pledged U.S. support for Greece in an attempt to help EU leaders stabilize the euro. A proposal for a second Greek bailout package worth $117-to-146 billion over three years is taking shape. If this second bailout package is similar to the first package, America’s financial contribution to the Greek crisis will come in the form of an International Monetary Fund loan. Given that the American financial crisis is just as bad as the Greek financial crisis, however, the Obama administration really would do well to first get its own house in order.