Get Ready for Oil War

The world’s greatest terrorist-sponsoring nation now presides over the world’s most powerful oil cartel. What will this mean for oil prices, and for the world? One Russian analyst says an international oil dispute is sure to erupt—but this time, it is not America’s fight: It is Europe’s.

On October 14, Iran was unanimously elected president of opec, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The move says a lot about America’s waning global influence. This grouping of nations, some of which are American “allies,” clearly intended the vote as a slap to America’s face. Not only did it ignore Washington’s outreach to many of them—which included the U.S. propping up the Iraqi government and selling Saudi Arabia $60 billion worth of upgraded F-15 fighters—but it also undermined U.S.-led efforts to enforce sanctions on Iran for continuing to pursue nuclear weapons.

Making the slap sting all the more is the fact that Iran’s oil minister, Seyed Masoud Mirkazemi, holds the opec presidency. Mirkazemi is a senior-level commander within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, which the U.S. State Department considers a terrorist organization. So opec is now chaired by a terrorist representing a terrorist-sponsoring nation.

Clearly the Arabs dread offending Iran far more than they do America.

Iran vs. Europe

Fear of Iran infects the Persian Gulf. And the Arabs should be afraid. America has begun withdrawing from Iraq and will begin pulling out of Afghanistan soon. The Arabs will be left to deal with—perhaps submit to—Iran.

Iran is acutely aware that America is an exiting superpower. But what exactly is Iran’s agenda?

Iran will certainly work to increase oil prices, and will likely succeed, says Russian Center for Public Policy Research director Vladimir Yevseyev. But Iran is gearing up for a far bigger battle, he says: one against Europe.

As head of opec, Iran will leverage its position to counter the policy of the European Union.

Europe, in addition to participating in certain embargoes that complicate Iranian oil sales, has recently begun taking further steps to restrict trade and foreign investment in Iran due to Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weaponry. On September 30, four of Europe’s largest oil companies (Shell, Total, Statoil and Eni) announced they had committed to stopping business with Iran.

The situation is getting touchy. Iran has now retaliated by giving ultimatums to other European oil firms: Either commit to business in Iran or prepare to have your assets seized.

Iran has other weapons too. Europe depends on imports for the vast majority of its oil. Germany, the Netherlands, France and Italy import almost all of their oil. Nearly half of Europe’s imported oil comes from the Middle East. And most of that comes through the Persian Gulf—which is half Iranian coastal waters.

“Security of energy without Iran has no meaning,” opec’s new president warned on October 14. The international community and Europe in general should take close note, he said.

It wouldn’t take much to send the cost of crude oil soaring. Global estimates suggest that due to depletion, over the next 5 to 10 years the Middle East is going to become the world’s most valuable source of oil. Iran is predicted to be one of the few countries with excess oil supplies.

“[T]he political risks are rising,” says Russia’s Yevseyev. “I do not see the way how this situation could change, as I do not see grounds for a rapprochement between Iran and Europe. … Europe looks at Iran’s presidency of opec as a problem with which it will fight, but not as the possibility of rapprochement with Iran” (emphasis mine).

Yevseyev is right. Rapprochement is out of the question.

The Push

The Middle East has the oil. Europe needs it. Iran wants to use it as a tool to push Europe. Europe wants to stop Iran from getting the bomb. America just wants out. Both Iran and Europe want in. The rest of opec balances on nitroglycerine—not wanting to offend Iran, and enjoying higher oil prices—but also looking with apprehension at a withdrawing America and with interest at emerging European aggressiveness.

In an oil-constrained world, Iran believes its position is impregnable. As opec‘s second-largest producer, it has the oil, and it is now leveraging its position within opec to push its agenda and try to attain nuclear capability. Yet a nuclear-armed dominant Iran is not something Europe wants to live with either. This is not a recipe for peace in the Middle East.

Tensions are escalating even faster than the price of oil, if that is possible. But where is it all headed?

The Bible says a clash between Iran and Europe is inevitable. Daniel 11 prophesies that an Iranian-led Middle Eastern power (referred to as “the king of the south”) will push at a European power (“the king of the north”) and provoke a war. The Trumpet’s editor in chief has written that oil would likely be a big part of this push—specifically the tightening of Europe’s oil supply.

Iran’s taking control of opec is a sign of its power and confidence growing. Expect it to use its new position to continue to push at Europe until it eventually provokes a far bigger response than anticipated.

You can read more about this prophecy in our booklets The King of the South and History and Prophecy of the Middle East.