Southeast Asia is a region some have labeled international terrorism’s “second front.” Yet, while tensions rise there, world attention is diverted to the Middle East, the squabbles between Europe and the U.S., the rift in nato and the mind-boggling moribundity of the UN. Dissidents within the Far East show signs of taking full advantage of the West’s preoccupation elsewhere.
The whole Southeast Asian region is showing signs of becoming the next global powder keg. Political, social, ethnic and religious turmoil is bubbling to the surface, with terrorist organizations exploiting this to the full. Al-Qaeda is well entrenched in the region and set to spark an Islamic backlash there, pending a U.S. strike against Iraq. It takes little in this region to start a riot or raise a militant demonstration or violent protest.
The two English-speaking nations of Oceania—Australia and New Zealand—are quite disparate in culture and manners to their northern neighbors. Porous borders in East Timor and Papua New Guinea mean that leakage of terrorists from places such as Indonesia and the Philippines—in particular into Australia via its vast, hard-to-secure coastline—is a constant concern. With the continuing drift of refugees, many of whom are from Islamic countries, this all adds up to quite a headache for the land down under.
But there are other concerns, as well, for the West.
Much Western capital flowed into Southeast Asia prior to the region’s economic meltdown in 1997. Western industrial infrastructure, trade and existing investment is being placed at greater risk as each month goes by with world attention diverted elsewhere.
Southeast Asia is simply a problem of global significance waiting to happen. Countries exhibiting signs of significant unrest form a crescent around the South China Sea, incorporating Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. With Japan and North Korea now rattling their sabers at each other, and China intent on dominating East Asia, competitive alliances may form as Asia continues to forge a new order. Crucial to this will be the security of the vast waters surrounding the Indonesian archipelago, crossroads from the South China Sea to the Indian Ocean, vital for East-West trade.
There appears to be no doubt that the largely Anglo-American alliance against terror will soon be forced to open a second front in the Far East if it is to have any hope of containing not only the terrorist war, but even the prospect of hot war in East Asia.