The Iraqi commission created to purge the electoral process of candidates loyal to Saddam Hussein’s outlawed Baath Party announced Monday that it will contest the results of Iraq’s March 7 election. Even if this challenge is not successful, however, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Iran-friendly Shiite State of Law (SoL) coalition could still come out on top.

The Accountability and Justice Commission says that six of the winning candidates had been banned from running in the elections the day before the vote and that their votes should be thrown out. At least four of the candidates being targeted are from secular Shiite Iyad Allawi’s Iraqiya bloc, which means that if the commission is successful, Allawi could lose his lead in the elections. According to results released last Friday, Allawi’s party won 91 seats in the 325-seat Council of Representatives as opposed to the 89 won by Maliki’s SoL party. If Allawi, who gained the votes of many Sunnis, is sidelined, it also raises the specter of renewed violence in Iraq.

The Accountability and Justice Commission is the organization that disqualified about 400 candidates from participating in the election, in what was seen as a sidelining of the Sunnis. It is led by two Shiites, one of whom has ties to Hezbollah, the Lebanese terrorist group sponsored by Iran. Associated Press points out that while Maliki does not directly control the committee, he has benefited from its actions and has done little to deter it.

Even if the commission’s challenge to election results is not successful, however, there is a good chance that Allawi’s party will not form part of the new government. The Iranian-supported Shiites in Iraq have covered their bases well. Without the majority needed to rule alone, Iraqiya would be dependent upon gaining coalition partners—and Maliki has just managed to get the rules changed.

On Saturday, the Iraqi Supreme Federal Court issued a reinterpretation of how parties can form a government. Previously, the law was understood to mean that whichever party won the most votes would have the right to form the government. Now, however, the coalition of parties that has the most seats when parliament opens can form the government and select the prime minister.

This means that if Maliki teamed up with the party that came in third, with 70 votes—the pro-Iranian Iraqi National Alliance (ina)—he could easily have the numbers to remain prime minister and form the government. The ina includes the movement of anti-American radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, “who is studying in Iran and is shaping up to be the new kingmaker of Iraqi politics,” according to Reuters. “In a sign of Sadr’s newfound muscle in Iraqi politics, representatives of State of Law and the Sadrists traveled to Iran on Friday to meet with Sadr, according to ina sources” (March 27).

Stratfor reported Monday that “Reports have already emerged that negotiations are under way between the SoL and the ina to secure an alliance, so even if the move to bar elected members of the Iraqiya list from assuming office does not succeed, the SoL still has a decent chance of making it into a ruling coalition with the ina.”

“The implications of such a coalition forming are two-fold,” writes Stratfor: “Iran will have an easier time exercising its influence in Iraq through a Shiite-dominated SoL-ina alliance at the expense of Iraq’s Sunni faction. Second, … the sidelining of the secular and Sunni-supported Iraqiya list could easily impede a political resolution to Iraq’s sectarian issues and spark a rise in Sunni insurgent activity.”

Even the seemingly secular Allawi, however, is not exactly hostile toward Iran. Allawi, who served as prime minister of Iraq in 2004-05, while at one time highly critical of Iran for supporting Shiite militias in Iraq, has reportedly tried to build bridges with Tehran. Reuters reports: “Allawi said on Saturday that the new government should work on strengthening political and economic ties with its neighbors and end long-running disputes over borders with countries such as Iran and Kuwait.”

Iranian website Mianeh last week said Tehran is confident the “results will pave way for U.S. military exit and empowerment of Iran’s allies. Reaction to the results of the recent Iraqi election suggests that Tehran has been reassured that the future of Iraqi politics is effectively out of the control of the United States.”

Continue to watch the Iraqi political situation as Iran maneuvers to tighten its grip on its western neighbor as the U.S. pulls out. For prophetic perspective on these developments, read “Prophecy Comes Alive in Iraq!” and “When America Leaves Iraq ….”