The Week in Review
Middle East
Final results are still not in for Iraq’s March 7 parliamentary election, though Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Iran-friendly State of Law coalition is in the lead. Supporters of both Maliki and his main challenger, secularist Iyad Allawi, are making allegations of fraud. The pro-Iranian Shiite Iraqi National Alliance (ina) and Kurdish parties are trailing the frontrunners. In an interesting development, the movement of the Iran-supported, anti-American radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr—which is part of the ina coalition—has fared well. Al-Sadr led the Shiite insurgency in Iraq before ostensibly turning to politics. It is expected that the Sadrists may win more than 40 seats in the 325-seat parliament, making them perhaps the second-largest Shiite bloc and the clear majority in the ina. While it may take months of negotiations for a working government to be formed, the increased participation by the Sunnis may make it easier for the United States to complete its troop withdrawal on schedule, as Sunni marginalization has been one of the drivers of violence in the country. U.S. officials have declared the election a security achievement, and said the U.S. military and Defense Department have agreed to proceed with a rapid pullout from the country.
Relations between the U.S. and Israel suffered a major crisis. Last week, during a visit to Israel by U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, Israel announced plans to build 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem. U.S. officials subsequently turned the gaffe into a crisis. Hillary Clinton upbraided Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during a much-publicized, 43-minute phone call. Officials blasted the timing of the announcement as an “affront” and an “insult,” saying the construction plans jeopardized the peace process—which the Obama administration feels it needs to show progress on. The Los Angeles Times reports that “the administration’s decision to strongly challenge the Netanyahu government this time has been driven in part by concerns that it cannot afford the perception that it has been pushed around in the Middle East and elsewhere, say U.S. officials and analysts” (March 17). Stratfor says Iran has been the primary cause of the rift growing between Israel and the U.S. “Washington has had to deal with Iran because of U.S. commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran’s rising influence in Iraq after the U.S. invasion has greatly facilitated Iran’s rise to regional prominence, as have the country’s nuclear efforts” (March 17). America’s unwillingness—or inability—to deal effectively with that Iranian nuclear threat has led to friction between the U.S. and Israel, which sees a nuclear-armed Iran as an existential national security threat. For more on the nature of the U.S.-Israeli split and where it will lead, read Stephen Flurry’s June 12, 2009, column, “The End of the U.S.-Israeli Alliance.”
In localized fallout over the Israeli housing plans in East Jerusalem, Arab rioting on Tuesday resulted in clashes with Israeli police, injuring more than 100 people. “In scenes reminiscent of past uprisings,” reports the L.A. Times, “dozens of Palestinian youths, some with scarves masking their faces, pelted police officers with rocks, blocked roads and burned tires in half a dozen neighborhoods around East Jerusalem.” Police responded with tear gas, rubber bullets and stun grenades, according to witnesses. The Christian Science Monitor notes that Iran is closely watching the uptick in violence in Jerusalem—as well as the division between the U.S. and Israel—for “ways to rejuvenate” its influence in the Middle East. “If the situation drags on—and especially if Israel continues to defy the United States—I think the Iranians will definitely take advantage, and will try to make an agreement, especially with the Persian Gulf countries,” not to gang up against Iran, said Meir Javedanfar, an Israel-based Iran analyst. “They would be able to say to them: ‘Look, the Americans are not even able to convince their friends to do what they want. They’re going to have much less chance to stand up to their enemies such as Iran.’”
Europe
The total value of German arms exports has more than doubled since 2005, making Germany the world’s third-largest weapons exporter, behind just the United States and Russia. German weapons sales now make up 11 percent of world arms trade according to the 2009 annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Most of these exports are armored vehicles, with submarines and warships also making up a large percentage. Turkey is the largest importer of German weapons, followed by Greece, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Austria and Italy. Germany is once again a major arms producer, with the government having implemented deliberate policies to build up weapons production.
The U.S. wants to upgrade the nuclear weapons it allows European nations access to under the nuclear sharing agreement. If the plan goes ahead, the upgrades would extend the B-61 bombs’ useful lifespan, as well as adapting them for use on America’s new Joint Strike Fighter. It is foolish enough for America to allow other nations access to its most destructive weapons, but now it even wants to pay to upgrade them. For more information, see our February 25 article “Could Germany Soon Acquire Nuclear Weapons?”
The Vatican is being heavily criticized for its weak reaction to pedophilia within the priesthood. On March 13, the Times stated that the pope himself shielded a pedophilic priest while he was still a cardinal. Four days later, German Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke out against clerical abuse for the first time, saying that “sexual abuse of children … is an abhorrent crime.” Some of the church’s most disgusting activities are coming to light; expect the church to work to cover them up.
The pope once again called for a new global economic system while speaking to a group of Italian entrepreneurs March 18. He called for “the reform and creation of an international juridical and political order” to oversee the world’s economy. The Vatican and the European Union are working hard to control the world’s future economy. For more information, see our July 2009 Trumpet article “Financial Regulation in Prophecy!”
On March 17, Angela Merkel called for a mechanism to expel nations that break fiscal rules from the eurozone. Germany also said for the first time that it would support Greece going to the International Monetary Fund for aid, should it go bust. Other nations in Europe are waking up to the fact that Germany calls the shots regarding the euro.
Asia
China refuted Britain’s most recent human rights study on Thursday, calling the annual report “an ideological political show.” Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang told a press conference, “China’s human rights cause is progressing continuously and it is obvious to any person without prejudice.” The 192-page 2009 Annual Report on Human Rights, published by British Foreign Secretary David Miliband Wednesday afternoon, listed China as one of 22 “countries of concern” in the realm of human rights. Miliband explained Beijing’s place on the list saying, “In China, 2009 ended with the execution of a mentally ill British citizen, Akmal Shaikh, and the imprisonment of prominent human rights activists, whose cases I raised in China yesterday and the day before.” Also listed among the reasons for concerns over China’s human rights were the case of rights lawyer Gao Zhisheng, who disappeared one year ago, and Beijing’s stance on Tibet, the death penalty and Xinjiang. A defensive Qin said that China opposed confrontation, double standards on human rights issues and interference in other nations’ internal affairs. A survey of headlines shows China’s defiance to be a steadily growing trend.
An emboldened Beijing is vehemently resisting international pressure to raise the value of its yuan currency, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar since mid-2008 in order to boost Chinese exports. In the latest intensification of the dispute, the U.S. Senate drafted legislation this week to punish China if it refuses to revalue the currency. The International Monetary Fund (imf) weighed in on the argument on Wednesday. “The renminbi (yuan) is very much undervalued and it’s in the logic of rebalancing (of the world economy) that the renminbi will appreciate,” imf managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn said. On Thursday, China rejected the criticisms and defended its exchange rate policies, saying the value of the yuan was not the major cause of Washington’s trade deficit with Beijing. Lashing out at Washington’s legislation, Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said, “It is unfair and harmful to continuously depreciate a country’s own currency and ask other countries to revalue their currencies in the meantime.” The currency issue has added to friction between Washington and Beijing over a spate of other issues including Tibet, Internet freedoms, and U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
Latin America/Africa
A coalition of conservative parties appear to have won Colombia’s national elections, Colombian newspaper El Tiempo reported March 15. The Conservative Party and the Radical Change Party, both allies of President Alvaro Uribe, control over half the Senate. These parties are also likely to do well in the May 30 presidential elections. The National Integration Party—a group with known links to drug traffickers and paramilitary organizations—came in fourth place. There were indications that these organizations were bribing politicians to take their side. Colombia—a nation in America’s backyard—has major problems with these groups.
South African President Jacob Zuma visited Zimbabwe for three days, beginning March 16. It was thought unlikely that he would to do anything to oppose the murderous policies of Zimbabwe’s dictator Robert Mugabe. When visiting Britain earlier this month, he called for an end to financial and travel restrictions placed on Mugabe. South Africa is inexorably heading in the same direction as Zimbabwe, so don’t expect Zuma to do anything about his northern neighbor.
Anglo-America
America’s leadership continued its preoccupation with health care this week as the House of Representatives moved toward a vote on a $940 billion health-care bill on Sunday. The measure would restructure one sixth of the entire U.S. economy. President Barack Obama has postponed his scheduled trip to Asia and Australia for the second time, putting it off until June.
The S&P 500 index hit its highest mark in 17 months Wednesday, and some stocks are hitting new one-year highs. Reuters reports, however, that the rally has “many flaws.” One market strategist said, “What we are seeing represents a very defensive stance among investors. You are seeing investor disinterest in equities and that’s why volume is languishing here.” “The tepid volume suggests a lack of broader conviction,” Reuters wrote, “and is a sign momentum is mostly behind the latest run-up rather than any broad-based accumulation of stocks” (March 18).
On Thursday, President Obama signed a $17.6 billion jobs bill that represents the federal government’s intervention in the nation’s 9.7 percent unemployment rate. However, news outlets reported that the measure would create perhaps only 200,000 jobs, compared to nearly 8.5 million jobs lost over the past two years. “The impact on hiring will be small,” Moody’s Economy.com reported. “Before business will really boost payrolls they need to be convinced that the recovery will strengthen.” President Obama seemed to agree that the unemployment rate would not fall anytime soon: “Now make no mistake,” he said. “While this jobs bill is absolutely necessary, it is by no means enough.”
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported late Tuesday that due to heavy rains last fall, an unusually wet winter and a potentially wet spring could produce record flooding. “We are looking at potentially historic flooding,” administrator Jane Lubchenco said. “It’s a terrible case of déja vu, but this time the flooding will likely be more widespread.” Lubchenco was referring to record floods in 2009 in North Dakota from the Red River, which is again overflowing its banks this week. Other communities in New Jersey, West Virginia, Minnesota, Massachusetts and elsewhere are also facing floodwaters.