Syria Scores a Victory in Lebanon

It appears the West has backed down and allowed Syria to get away with its deadly interference in Lebanon’s politics.

On Wednesday, four pro-Syrian Lebanese generals held since 2005 for their alleged involvement in the assassination plot that killed Lebanon’s anti-Syrian former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri were released from prison upon orders from the UN-backed international tribunal investigating the case.

This is quite a victory for both Syria and Iran-backed Hezbollah, the political force that has gained from the intimidation of the Lebanese opposition. But the release of these four key figures, allegedly because of insufficient evidence, apparently isn’t their only victory. A Stratfor source reports that a number of Syrian officers who would potentially be called on to testify before the tribunal have disappeared, allegedly fleeing to Qatar where they were given fake IDs. Additionally, a witness recently arrested in Dubai may be handed over to Syria.

After preventing the international tribunal from even being set up for two years after the Hariri assassination, Syria has worked behind the scenes to ensure that no suspects in the plot have yet been identified or indicted. These latest developments mean the tribunal will “effectively be paralyzed,” says Stratfor (April 30).

While Syria was pressured by the West to withdraw its troops from Lebanon after the Hariri assassination, it has spent the four years since then “steadily rebuilding its influence in Lebanon while using a variety of techniques—everything from funneling militants into Iraq to engaging in Turkish-mediated peace talks with Israel—to attract the West’s attention” (ibid.). As a result, the U.S. and France have reportedly been involved in back-channel negotiations concerning Syria’s demands that the charges against Syrian officials over the Hariri assassination be dropped. Thus, says Stratfor, the tribunal’s release of the four Lebanese officers was largely politically motivated.

The assassination of the anti-Syrian Hariri four years ago—along with numerous other assassinations of Lebanese figures—was a message to Lebanese leaders that they must cooperate with Syria or else suffer the consequences. In the end, it appears Syria has achieved its goals—thwarting the tribunal that would prosecute those responsible for Hariri’s assassination, and preserving its hold on Lebanon—without giving up anything.

Meanwhile, the generals’ release is a “major symbolic victory” for Hezbollah, according to Stratfor. With Lebanese elections coming up on June 7, this boost could help deliver Hezbollah and its allies a victory.

Signs are that the United States would be largely accepting of a Lebanese government led by Hezbollah or its allies. On a visit to Lebanon last Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called for the parliamentary vote to be free and fair—neglecting to acknowledge that this democratic process will pit Western-friendly politicians against a terrorist group supported by Iran and Syria. Just last month, Britain ended its ban on dealings with the political wing of Hezbollah. It appears the U.S. could be headed in the same direction.

Both Iran and Syria are showing that they are adept at using violence, or the threat of violence, as well as diplomacy—themselves or through their proxies—to gain victories. Yet the West continues to court these countries.