Pakistan, India on War Footing

Pakistan withdrew 20,000 troops from its Afghan border and redeployed them along the Indian border last week. As Pakistan focuses on the prospect of fighting India instead of fighting the Taliban, the United States is going to have more trouble in Afghanistan.

Following the Mumbai attacks on November 26, the people of India have pressured their government to respond. The government cannot afford to look weak against terror, and has reacted by deploying troops along the Pakistani border, threatening Pakistan with war if it does not crack down on the terrorist groups it harbors.

Pakistan has responded in kind, redeploying a large number of its own troops to the Indian border and canceling all troop leave.

Still, both countries are trying to calm the waters. The directors general for military operations from the two countries spoke to each other over the “hotline” on Sunday. Leaders of both sides have stressed a desire for peace, and most analysts now believe that war is unlikely—though in such a highly charged situation, a small spark could ignite a conflict.

But even without war, America is one of the biggest losers here. The 20,000 troops Pakistan has redeployed away from its Afghan border represent one fifth of all the forces it has dedicated to fighting the Taliban in the northwest of the country.

“This is a serious blow to the war on terror in the sense that the whole focus is now shifting toward the eastern border,” said former Pakistani general and military analyst Talat Masood. “It will give more leeway to the militants and increased space to operate.”

At the moment, Pakistan is refusing to cooperate with India in cracking down on militants. If Islamabad continues its defiance, analysts say the most likely outcome is a “no war, no peace” situation. Under this scenario, the two sides will use non-state proxies to destabilize each other. This would be similar to the situation before 2002, leading to periodic crises between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

This scenario would be very bad for the U.S. In addition to having to invest political and real capital in calming down the region, Washington would be faced with a major defeat in the war on terror. Instead of fighting Islamist terrorists, Pakistan would fund them—using the terrorists to fight India.

Islamist militants are already operating in Pakistan and causing major problems for the U.S. The Taliban uses Pakistan as its base for launching attacks into Afghanistan. Insurgents are attacking U.S. supply lines that run through Pakistan to Afghanistan. In one week this month, terrorists set fire to 300 trucks carrying supplies and military vehicles.

If Pakistan does not deal decisively with the militants, or worse, builds them up, life will get very difficult for the U.S. in Afghanistan. And the U.S. has a history of failing to finish difficult wars.

The situation between India and Pakistan is yet another setback for the United States. For more about America’s war in Afghanistan, read “Afghanistan: Back to Where We Started.”