The Week in Review
Middle East
Throwing Pakistan into political turmoil and a firestorm of violence this week was the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the country’s primary opposition leader and seemingly the only one who had the potential to help stabilize the country’s political situation. Elections slated for January 8 will now most likely be postponed. Bhutto’s death thrusts the nation’s politics—and the country—into disarray. Considering the political instability already extant in Pakistan, its unprecedented Islamic insurgency and its possession of nuclear weapons, any further security and political breakdown of the country means danger for the whole region and possibly the world. It will be up to Pakistan’s strongest and most influential national organization, the army, to quell the rioting and unrest sweeping much of the country.
While blame for the assassination is being thrown around within Pakistan, clearly Islamists were most likely behind the killing. In any case, they will most certainly take advantage of the situation now by trying to further destabilize and divide the army, which they have already largely infiltrated. President Pervez Musharraf is a wild card: Should he seize this opportunity to try to take charge of the military once more, an upheaval among the top ranks of the army may result. Pakistan is worth watching closely, particularly in light of Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry’s recent comment, “Pakistanalso has the nuclear bomb and could be taken over by radical Islam, with plenty of help fromIran. That means it could become a proxy of the Iranian mullahs.”
In Israel, Fatah’s anti-Israel agenda has been further exposed. “Fatah is planning to mark its 43rd anniversary this year with a new poster that presents all of Israel as Palestine,” reported the Jerusalem Post—evidence that Fatah does not recognize Israel’s existence. This is one more piece of evidence that discredits Fatah’s claim of being a moderate, West-friendly party that seeks peace with Israel.
Meanwhile, Israeli concessions keep flowing the way of the Palestinians. The Israeli government gave Hamas exclusive rights to broadcast its anti-Israel, violence-provoking message via radio from the Temple Mount, while at the same time banning Jews from visiting the site, during a week where sacred holidays of the Jews and Muslims crossed paths. Rabbi Chaim Richman of the Temple Institute was astounded at the symbolism involved: “Closing the Temple Mount to Jews all week long, including on our fast day, because of the Muslim holiday, emphasizes that the government not only favors Muslim sensibilities over Jewish ones, but also the Koranic version of our history over that of the Tanach, our Bible.”
Among both Jews and Palestinians, hope of peace is dying, according to a poll conducted by Hebrew University and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. Nearly three out of four Israelis said the Annapolis peace conference was a failure, and 59 percent of Palestinians agreed. Only 8 percent of Israelis believed it was possible to achieve peace by the end of 2008; 23 percent of Palestinians agreed.
A new Pentagon report provides evidence that Iran is still aiding Shiite militias in Iraq. Canada also charged this week that Iran is allowing weapons and bomb-making equipment across its border with Afghanistan to the Taliban. This of course is nothing new, and only further confirms Tehran’s infamous position as the world’s prime sponsor of terrorism.
The increasingly confident Iran announced on Wednesday that Russia had agreed to deliver the S-300 surface-to-air missile system—thought to be among the best in the world, according to Stratfor—in 2008 and that negotiations were under way between the two countries for procurement of a further air defense system. The Russian deputy foreign minister has denied the Russians are selling Iran any such system, but admitted Moscow is assisting Iran in reinforcing its current air defense systems. A reinforced Iranian defense shield would make any air strike on Iran more costly. The U.S. or Israel would think twice before striking Iran. Russia’s promises of aid to Iran are also a way for Moscow (and Tehran) to extract concessions from the U.S. The one thing that Russia and Iran definitely agree on is their desire to undermine America.
Earlier in the week, Tehran rejected preconditions set by the U.S. for direct negotiations. “Iran has seen little need to play ball with the United States since the recent release of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate and the Russian delivery of nuclear fuel,” reported Stratfor. “But the longer U.S.-Iranian talks remain stalled, the greater the chances of renewed Sunni-Shiite violence in Iraq” (December 24).
The U.S. also remains in a tight position between Turkey and the Kurds. For the third time in two weeks, Turkey conducted airstrikes against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq on Wednesday. Stratfor reports that apart from the limited value of the strikes in fighting Kurdish separatism, Turkey’s motivation was geopolitical: to complicate U.S.-Kurdish relations. The U.S., however, is in no position to stop it doing this; the cost would be the loss of Turkey’s help in the war in Iraq. It appears the Kurds, once more, are being sold out by their ally, the United States.
Europe
This week the temperature rose in some of Europe’s hottest spots. Serbia voted decisively against Kosovo’s independence. The resolution on the “protection of sovereignty, territorial integrity and constitutional order of Serbia” was passed by 220 votes to 14 in Serbia’s parliament. This resolution says that Serbia would reconsider its diplomatic ties with any country that recognized Kosovo’s independence. It also states that any treaties Serbia signs must recognize Serbia’s full territorial integrity. This is a bold step indicating Serbia will not let go of Kosovo easily.
Russia also stepped up the pressure on Europe over the Balkans. “In case of the unilateral recognition of the independence of Kosovo, Russia will be entitled to change its approach to the so-called unrecognized republics in the post-Soviet regions—South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie,” said the speaker of Russia’s upper house of parliament, Sergei Mironov. This would cause a lot of trouble in Moldova and Georgia.
Georgia, a key nation for the control of oil and gas supplies, has enough trouble already. A coup plot by a candidate in Georgia’s presidential elections was uncovered this week. Russia is doing all it can to destabilize this area in order to frustrate EU efforts to free itself from Russia’s control of natural gas.
In this key area of gas politics, Russia gained a decisive advantage over the EU this week as it signed a contract with Turkmenistan to build a pipeline connecting the two nations. The EU was hoping that Turkmenistan would choose Europe as its main partner. Watch for competition for resources between the EU and Russia to heat up in the near future.
Asia
Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda made another step toward cementing Japan’s ties with China. On Thursday, he arrived in China to, in his own words, “further promote the development trend of Japan-China ties so that next year bilateral ties can develop even faster and move into a new stage.” During his visit, he will negotiate a dispute over oil and gas rights in the East China Sea and propose a joint Japanese-Chinese environmental foundation. Fukuda is widely regarded as the most pro-Chinese prime minister of Japan since his father in the late 1970s. As tensions with the U.S. rise over Japan’s role in the Iraq war, the Japanese are increasingly looking to the Asian continent for strong alliances.
On Wednesday, Russia launched the last three satellites needed to give its glonass satellite navigation system full coverage over the entire Russian region. glonass is the Russian equivalent to the U.S. Global Positioning System (gps). Russian President Vladimir Putin is pushing for global coverage for glonass by 2010. Modern militaries rely heavily on satellite technology. glonass is enabling Russia to act independently of the U.S. and its gps system.
In addition to expanding its own military capacity, Russia is arming Iran. As noted above, the Iranian defense minister announced that Russia is preparing to equip Iran with a powerful new air defense system. As long as Moscow keeps Washington preoccupied with the threat from Tehran, Putin is freer to go about his business of restoring Russia to its Soviet-era strength without American opposition.
Latin America
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez spent his week trying to earn political credit in Latin America: He arranged to retrieve three hostages from Colombia, a move that Associated Press said demonstrates “the guerrillas’ affinity for the socialist leader.” The hostage situation has been a point of contention between President Chavez and the U.S.-allied Colombian President Alvaro Uribe, who complained last month that Chavez had gone too far in contacting the head of Colombia’s army. Now, after having told Chavez to back off, Uribe finds himself saying the Venezuelan mission was authorized and thanking President Chavez for his efforts. The rebels hold several hundred hostages; Colombia will find itself looking to Venezuela for direction rather than its own president.
Anglo-America
The week in financial news held more worrying symptoms for the United States. On Sunday, the Associated Press reported that Americans are becoming consumed by their own credit card debt. Year-to-date, the value of credit card accounts that were at least 30 days overdue jumped 26 percent to more than $17 billion at the nation’s biggest card issuers. Defaults, which occur when lenders give up on ever receiving payment, surged 18 percent and are approaching $1 billion. Ninety-day delinquencies represented the worst trend, with major lenders saying these overdue accounts had increased by 50 percent or more. The report does not include data from the traditional consumerist, credit-bingeing American holiday season.
Meanwhile, those on the other side of the teller counter are taking their own lumps. America’s largest and most storied banks are stumbling through the quarter. For the first time in its 84-year history, storied investment bank Bear Stearns reported a quarterly loss. Bear’s fourth quarter has been battered by a $1.9 billion write-down. Investors decided to stick with Bear overall, however, since it did not seek a foreign-financed bailout like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch have. One wonders how bad it is when the nation’s biggest banks have to be bailed out, and few U.S. companies are willing or able to do the bailing.
The housing market collapse has squelched expansion in the fastest-growing states in the union. California, a historically high-expansion state, has experienced an outflow of residents and has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. Also, new Equal Employment Opportunity Commission regulations allow employers to create two classes of retirees and reduce or eliminate health benefits when individuals turn 65 and become eligible for Medicare.
In British news, former Prime Minister Tony Blair completed his conversion to Catholicism last Friday night in a private ceremony. Blair’s wife is Roman Catholic, and the Blair children have all been christened into Catholicism. The lack of public response reveals Britons’ increasing apathy toward a power that has repeatedly tried to wrest control of the isles.
The Telegraph reported that Britain has earned the dubious title “sick man of Europe” for its “record levels of obesity, alcohol abuse, diabetes and smoking-related deaths. The rate of obesity in British adults is the worst in Europe and, in some areas, is now above the national average of the United States.”