Middle East

This week the repercussions of the December 3 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (nie) that whitewashed Iran’s nuclear activities continued to unfold. Iran has high hopes of what it will gain as a result of the nie—and for good reason. An emboldened Iran sees how the intelligence estimate will increase its standing regionally and particularly in Iraq. Now that the United States does not consider Iran as much of a nuclear threat, it appears it is willing to move toward a final deal with Tehran in order to exit Iraq. Already, talks between U.S. and Iranian officials have been set for December 18 ahead of higher level talks in early January. Iraq, it seems, is open to the idea of further Iranian influence: “I do believe Iran is a major power in the Middle East and holds a key for stability and peace for the whole region,” Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi told reporters on Sunday. At the same time, Tehran is covering its bases by shoring up its relationship with Russia. On Thursday, the two countries signed five agreements to expand cooperation in economy and trade.

Another highly significant development this week will also help cement Iran’s position in the Middle East: A major breakthrough has occurred in Iran-Egypt relations. For the first time since 1979 (when the two countries broke ties), a high-level Egyptian diplomat visited Iran. Egyptian Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein Derar and Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki held talks on bilateral, regional and international issues. “Both sides described the talks as constructive and called for the continuation of such talks,” the irna news agency reported. A high-level Iranian official is scheduled to visit Cairo in late January 2008. This warming of Iranian-Egyptian relations is part of a “major geopolitical realignment [that] is in the works, under which Iran is being integrated into the regional security system,” reports Stratfor (December 13). As Bible prophecy points to an Iranian-Egyptian alliance in the end time, we can expect Egypt to continue to warm up to Iran.

Adding to Israel’s concern this week about Iran’s improving position is a report that the terrorist group Hamas has improved the design of its Qassam rockets. The rockets apparently now have a longer shelf life, enabling Hamas to stockpile larger quantities.

To Israel’s north, Syria’s powerful influence in Lebanon was again realized this week with the assassination of the head of Lebanese army operations, Brig. Gen. Francois al-Hajj, who was slated to become the next army chief. The suspected car bomb attack that killed him was almost certainly orchestrated by Syria. The current army chief, Gen. Michel Suleiman, is Syria’s choice of president for Lebanon, which has been without a president since November 23. Though the U.S. apparently agreed to the selection of president in order get Syria to attend Annapolis, political wrangling within Lebanon has prevented his election. Stratfor contends that the bombing may have been Syria’s way of telling the Lebanese government to hurry the process and give in to the Hezbollah-led opposition’s demands. A sobering example of the results of Western appeasement.

Meanwhile, with no real progress being made by nato forces in Afghanistan against the Taliban, the UK proposed asking Taliban militants to join the political process. Both the U.S. and Kabul have tried this tactic multiple times, but the insurgency has only gained strength. Obviously, there is little incentive for the Taliban, considering their success, to lay down arms and negotiate. They would rather hold out for a better deal.

Also this week, as a result of the Annapolis peace conference, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators began their first formal talks in seven years on Wednesday. Don’t expect these talks to make any headway toward peace, however. Reuters reported December 12 that the talks “opened in discord … with the Palestinians demanding a halt to settlement building and Israel calling for a crackdown on militants.” A second round of talks is scheduled for December 23.

Europe

Nationally speaking, Europe is in a time of divorce and disunity. Once again the Balkans have dominated the news, as Europe (read Germany) has stepped up efforts to pry Kosovo away from Serbia and weld it into the Union. Almost all of Europe seeks Kosovo’s independence, and the Europeans are working on presenting a united front. Wolfgang Ischinger, the German diplomat representing the EU in the group of three international mediators (Russia, the United States and the EU) at talks between Serbia and Kosovar Albanians, said the EU would soon be unified on the issue and that the EU would be in control of any independent Kosovar state. “It will be a state entity, which will continue to be under broad international observation,” he said. “The nato troops will continue to be deployed there. A further international presence of the UN and, consequently, of EU, will be ensured.”

A Telegraph poll revealed that the United Kingdom, like Serbia, may also be on its way to breaking apart. The results of the poll indicated most Britons have little hope for the unity of the UK. Though 69 percent wanted to preserve the union between England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, only 35 percent believed that it will last longer than 25 years. Ultimately, a divided Britain plays into the hands of the European Union. If the UK can be broken into autonomous regions, it will be far easier for Brussels to assert control.

Not to be forgotten is the fact that Belgium has gone six months now without a government, and no solution appears to be on the horizon. Talk about Belgium splitting into two nations continues.

Although disunity prevails on a national level, the European Union itself took another step this week toward greater power and unity. On Thursday, all 27 leaders of EU member states signed the Treaty of Lisbon, a monumental step forward for European integration. Absent from the pomp and circumstance surrounding the ceremony was British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who signed the treaty two hours later. Expect Europe’s integration to continue, for a number of reasons. One primary cause will be the continued rise of Russia. EU leaders are worried that Moscow exerts too much power against Europe and are calling for a more unified front against Moscow’s tactics.

Ironically, disunity inside some of Europe’s national governments will only serve to strengthen the EU’s ability to extend its control over its constituents. Watch as the increasingly centralized and powerful EU government breaks down nations that oppose it and extends its power beyond Europe’s borders.

Asia

On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ensured his hold over Russian power by announcing Dmitry Medvedev as his preferred successor. Medvedev is fiercely loyal to Putin and stated that if elected, he wants Putin to retain executive power over the nation as its new prime minister. However it happens, it is virtually assured Putin will retain power, and Medvedev will be his puppet.

President Putin’s law suspending the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (cfe) took effect this Wednesday, and two military brigades have been deployed to the North Caucasus—outside the flanking limitations stipulated by the cfe. On Thursday Putin traveled to Belarus, where he discussed increasing bilateral ties between the two nations. Clearly Russia is trying to augment ties with former Soviet Republic states, diminishing their possibility of drawing closer to the EU. Between his manipulation of elections, his suspension of arms treaties, and his inroads into a former Soviet state, Putin must be making Europe uneasy.

The rise of Russia is causing the opposite reaction in Asia. Upon hearing the news about Putin’s likely successor, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang praised Medvedev as “a good friend of the Chinese people.”

Elsewhere in Asia, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with his South Korean counterpart Han Duck Soo on Monday to discuss the possibility of a free-trade zone between the two countries. After the Chinese-South Korean animosity of the Cold War, this proposed trade relationship is bringing South Korea into the fold with Beijing and the rest of Asia.

Despite the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China over trade, on Tuesday Qin Gang expressed appreciation for the United States’ opposition to Taiwan’s referendum on UN membership. Far from being a harbinger of improving U.S.-Chinese relations, this is another step in the deterioration of U.S.-Taiwanese relations, which are set to deteriorate still further as mainland China exerts more control over Taiwan.

Latin America, Africa

On December 6, the EU signed a preliminary agreement with several African countries—including Zimbabwe—for duty-free and quota-free access to goods. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown shunned the conference due to the presence of Zimbabwe’s president, Robert Mugabe, but business between the EU and African nations continued ahead with the human rights violator and without British representation.

Libya signed natural gas agreements with four companies on December 9: Royal Dutch/Shell, Gazprom, Algeria’s Sonatrach and Poland’s Polski. Libya’s energy potential is such that the companies signed deals with no near-term profit potential in the hopes of greater energy output from Libya later. Thus continues the growing competition between Europe and Russia to secure energy supplies.

Two car bombings exploded in the Algerian capital on Tuesday, killing up to 67 people and injuring nearly 200. The attacks, targeting security forces and Western installations, are the latest in a string of attacks by Algeria’s leading Islamic terrorist organization dating back to March 2004. The latest attack, which targeted Westerners as well as the government, calls into question the ability of the country’s security forces to contain the ongoing Islamist insurgency despite a crackdown by the military-dominated state. In The King of the South, Gerald Flurry details the possibility of Islamists taking control of Algeria and bringing that country into Iran’s sphere of influence. Continued destabilization by Islamic forces could increase the potential for such an event.

In Argentina, President Néstor Kirchner handed over the reins of power to his successor: his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Part of her plan for the country is to strengthen the Mercosur trade union, a group whose admittance of Venezuela and consideration of Cuba as a member illustrates declining U.S. influence in the region.

Latin American leaders also started a bank this week: Banco del Sur, intended to compete with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Headquartered in Caracas, the bank is an innovation of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, probably as a vehicle to gain further influence through his oil revenue, and is supported by Brazil, Bolivia, Argentina, Paraguay and Ecuador.

Anglo-America

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown fumbled over signing the EU treaty on Thursday in a revealing display of London’s increasing estrangement from Europe. After denying a public referendum and ramrodding through the unpopular treaty, which he admitted was a “constitution” or “semi-constitution,” it initially appeared Brown would decline to sign the treaty personally, ostensibly due to a scheduling conflict. All 26 other EU members sent heads of state to sign the document, along with the UK foreign minister. Brown then signed the document inconspicuously later in the day. The result appears to be the worst of both worlds: British Euroskeptics are upset over the denied referendum and the power-surrendering treaty, and London lost clout on the bothered Continent.

America continues to rack up debt by $1.4 billion per day—about $1 million per minute. The total of $9.13 trillion amounts to $30,000 in debt for every human being in America, and msnbc says “the government is fast straining resources needed to meet interest payments on the national debt ….” Factoring in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security liabilities, the government owes $50 trillion: $166,000 per American.

On Monday, Morgan Stanley issued a report titled “Recession Coming.” It points to soaring defaults and delinquencies, dwindling credit availability, falling home prices, and an auto industry in “liquidation mode” and says “the bank no longer believes Asia and Europe will come to the rescue as America slows.” The report says consumers could be facing “a perfect storm.”